There is a potential conflict ahead.
Between Australia’s long-term ally and its new-found giant trading partner.
Hundreds of ships ply the seas between Chinese ports and Australian mining ports passing newly created islands in the South China Sea. Darwin is hosting a newly enlarged US Marine base, along with other US bases within this island nation. The potential for spill-over of any conflict, verbal or actual, between the fading old and the growing new Superpowers must involve Australia.
We are too small to ignore the demands of the US. Yet we are too important a supplier of raw materials to China for them to allow us to become simply a US base in a potentially “hot” conflict.
Put into this context announcements by President Obama in 2011 have an ominous import for Australia. The urgency in pushing for the American Multinational-favouring Trans Pacific Partnership is a last ditch effort for the owners of the “Free World” to keep their position.
China, on the other hand, is looking outwards for the first time since the mid 15th Century. It has finally shrugged off the shackles imposed by the Confucian bureaucrats and discovered, as it did back in 200BC, that there is a whole world out there waiting to be plundered for the benefit of the Chinese Ruling Class.
Where does Australia fit into this game of Chinese Checkers?
In the game of chess there is a situation known as Zugzwang. A player whose turn it is to move who has no move that does not worsen his position is said to be in zugzwang.
Australia’s foreign Affairs Department has successfully negotiated us into Zugzwang. We must make a move and whatever move we make, we must lose!
Sign the TPP and tie ourselves to the USA or continue trade with China.
The USA is here, sitting comfortably on our Nation’s land. With all the machinery of war which they so revere and so love using.
China wants our natural resources to build their own nation. Yes, they can go to Brazil and pick up huge amounts of iron ore but guess which other country is also close to Brazil. So building new islands to extend their borders has two benefits. An extension of their seabed and access to more hydrocarbons.But we all know that.
It also allows them to develop off-shore sea-lane protection. Protection from a dying super-power with continuing delusions of grandeur. There will be moments of heat in this conflict and I would NOT want to be living in or near Darwin when that happens.
Australia is China’s most convenient hardware store with the added advantage of being a growing food-basket. China will keep Australia as its own private supplier.