Way back in the past, on the 28th of March this year, there were 460 new cases of COVID-19 recorded in Australia. Since then that daily figure has steadily reduced until now it is in the tens to twenties each day.
We have beaten the virus and we need to go back to work, lift all the restrictions and get back to normal.
Not quite, not yet, not now!
Way back when this all started, you know, six or seven weeks ago, there was a lot of talk about how we were going to flatten the curve.
This was presented as a way of making sure we had hospital beds and facilities for when the pandemic really struck hard.
Now we are seeing what appears to be the tailing off of that flattened curve. Sadly that is not so. What was never pushed onto the public attention was what would happen after the curve was flattened. The virus is still out there, still looking to infect a still largely vulnerable population. Because if we haven’t been infected, we are virgin soil for COVID-19. Due to the fact that most of us have been isolated the vast majority of us are still going to catch the disease. And what happens when we are allowed out again? This is what happens. The timing is all wrong because the bottom of the first outbreak was so well achieved while the principle remains accurate.
Allowing us all out into public again, fun though that may be, will set things off again!
The flattening of the curve is and was a method of allowing our public health systems to become organised. To stock up on PPE and ventilators for the holocaust still to come.
I’m exaggerating? Here are a a couple of headlines which need to be unpicked and understood. If the emergency was truly over and the danger passed, why are so many ventilators still being sourced? These two headlines are from the week ended 24/4 and so are current!
It is not a conspiracy theory to see that our Government is expecting much worse to come.
The hope is that our Health Departments will be able to cope with the numbers of infections to come. More importantly that those who are infected and need the extreme medical assistance of ventilators will get it.
The death tolls we have been so horrified at in some other countries has been due, in large part to the fact that those who need help with their breathing for several days, have not been able to access that help. No country has thought to stockpile the tens of thousands of ventilators needed in this situation.
Australia, with its smaller population has been able to use the time bought by our isolation policy to build up the estimated required number of ventilators.
There have been nearly 7,000 cases so far in Australia. Just the two articles referred to above mention some 7,000 new ventilators with still more to come.
To me that indicates that a huge number of cases are still expected as restrictions on personal freedom are relaxed. Having this supply of ventilators available will keep most of the severely affected patients alive which is a good thing!
What is never mentioned is that people in my age group and above, with the co-morbitities we have accumulated over our lives will still be subject to an excessively high death rate from COVID-19.
So please understand, when we are again allowed out, are again able to exercise and mingle with our fellow human beings, I will still be wearing my mask in public, I will still be limiting my contact with people in the supermarket and I will not be going to the footy.
Only when there is a vaccine for this plague will I feel free to resume my old life for this is only the end of the beginning.