Poll Sum; 4th Mar


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POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

46.427%|53.573%

6,964,050|8,035,950

 

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THIS WEEK

One Poll, Essential 17/02 was deleted.

Two Polls, Ipsos 2/03, Essential 3/3 were added

A total of 8913 Australians were polled

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,964,050 Votes

ALP 8,035,950 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

7.11% or

1,071,900 voters.

A major swing to the right of another 1.5% but still over a million more voters prefer to have no L-NP Government.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back just below 50%

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I, along with many other poll watchers, was stunned when the Ipsos poll came out Monday and showed a 4% loss in Primary to the ALP and a 4% gain in Primary to the L-NP. This was translated into a 3% swing either way in the 2pp to 51/49. I read that this was because the spill had failed and there was total support for the PM. Somehow I do remember a lot of discussion in the media, which would have been seen by those polled, about another spill in the party room this week. Yet on Monday morning there was this Ipsos poll which showed an apparent major swing back to the L-NP which was still within the margin of error. Not that that fact was mentioned anywhere. Suddenly THEN the move for a new spill was “almost dead”.  On Monday morning after a weekend of wild expectations promoted by the MSM we were told the electorate was happy with the new stability of the Government. I felt there was something strange going on. Today the Essential Poll confirmed that strangeness. Essential picked up exactly NONE of that alleged Ipsos swing.

 2:

Antony Green has written an amazing blog post in which he counsels us all to almost expect an ALP victory in the NSW State election.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

From a Roman Wall #84


wine_salesman_-_roman“Salve, Good Morning.” Nellus Ursus the Barristerus greeted the newly arrived customers with a smile and with beakers of steaming caffeinus.

“Oh thank goodness for your Forum Cafeterium, Nellus. It is a small island of sanity in the madness of modern Rome.” The Librarian, Literatus accepted his beaker and sniffed appreciatively at the aroma.

“What have you seen to upset you this morning?” asked Libertinus the man about Rome. “Other than the goings-on up at the Palace.”

“I know nothing at all about palace life.” said Literatus. “I was down at the wharf this morning, taking the air, and those boats which our friend Verbo Ipsum owns were sailing and rowing in mad circles on the Tiber. It made me quite dizzy to watch them.”

As if on cue, Verbo walked into the Cafeterium.

“What were those sailors of yours doing this morning?” Literatus. “Have they been drinking the wine they should be delivering?”

“Not at all.” replied Verbo Ipsum. “It happens every now and then with ships and their crews. Schooner or later sailors engage in rudder nonsense.”

 

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Sid and Sod #672


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It Tickled Granny’s Fancy


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A bonus special page of cartoons from the British Army was published in this edition of The Australian Women’s Weekly.

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The Australian Women’s Weekly, Saturday 3 March 1945

Sid and Sod #671


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Lots of Fun


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In the 1930′s & 1940′s when these were published in

The Western Mail, and The Australian Worker

PCishness was not a consideration

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Sid and Sod #670


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