Poll Sum; 10th February, 2016


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POLL SUMMARY

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poll10aReachtel 24/01 and Morgan 25/01 were dropped

Essential 02/02, Essential 09/02 and Morgan 09/02 were added. (Essential 09/02 has not given a number polled so 1800 have been used.)

A total of 10,303 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll10bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

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Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,799,550 Votes

ALP 7,203,450 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference ofpoll27da

-3.967% or 596,100 voters.

A swing of over 4% which brings the Left well over half a million closer this week. A major swing which could see a panic DD!

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll10e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll10fOther minor parties, KAT and TXP are showing 1% or less (Yes, I know Xenophon has 15% in SA but Nationally he has 1%! So they account for around 2% of the “Others” 9.77%

Oh, And how bad is Palmer going? Out of over 10,000 people polled, he got the nod from 88 – – –

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With a swing this sudden and this big there will be some who are counselling MT to go the DD route asap! The problem is that if the swing continues at this rate (unlikely) the horse will have bolted long before the election and the ALP/Greens coalition could well be clearly in front on election day.

2:

The other way to look at the Morgan poll is that it is drumming up support for tony abbott’s Easter run for re-instatement.I am tipping that the discussion will grow and by the middle of March, the polls will be showing the Turnbull experiment to have been an electoral failure and the way will be clear and credible for an abbott return.

Will that be good for the country?

Will that be good for the Left?

Or is it a case of individual ambition over electoral commonsense?

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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Sid and Sod #775


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Great Grandma’s Life


In 1939, Great Grandma had to be very aware of her diet.

And Kelloggs helped with that awareness but not necessarily the diet.

 

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Burgled from the extremely generous Vintage Scans.

Where Am I From?


Some may have wondered just where Ærchie Archive is from. Facebook certainly demanded to know. So here I am.

Where I am from.

I am from ancient European lines, I am from those close to the soil, I am from Cornish farms and deltas in Norfolk, I am from Danish islands and Irish famines, I am from Dickensian crime and Kentish fields, I am from long sea voyages and followed dreams. I am from a land where the seasons are reversed.

I am from teachers and gold-hunting dreamers and brickmakers and convicts, I am from teetotalers and alcoholics, I am from Catholic and Protestant, I am from a dutiful daughter widowed too early and an adventurous runaway son who died too young, I am from being “man of the house” at twelve, I am from being eldest of three boys. I am from shyness.

I am from remote farming homes, I am from reading cereal packs aged three, I am from one-teacher schools, I am from wide and brown fields, I am from understanding science and mathematics, I am from Goon Shows, puns and dictionaries. I am from my insecurities.

I am from working at instead of studying at University. I am from Ice Skating and Cricket and the beds of the nubile, I am from marching for peace, I am from solving the world’s problems at 1am with red and white wines. I am from reading poetry and plays and science fiction. I am from an awe of the universe.

I am from a wife and three children and ten grandchildren, I am from changing skills and lifestyles, I am from mistakes and wrong choices, I am from too much city, I am from my frailties and fears, I am from learning of my place and my family and my history.

I am from learning nothing is settled and no-one is full-grown. I am from finally learning to trust me.

I am from being human.

The Battle Cry


onceupunatimered There was about to be a fierce battle in New Zealand many years ago between the British soldiers and the Maori tribes?

Lance Cpl Armstrong was said to have won the battle for the Brits.

You see the soldiers and the Maori warriors were facing each other and were getting ready to fight.

The Maori had done their pre-battle haka and Cpl Armstrong was loading the British cannon to fire when the locals charged.

Just as he was tamping the powder into the cannon with a ram rod the cannon fired! Blowing off the Corporal’s upper limbs in the process and hurling them at the enemy..

The moment the Maori saw what was being shot at them they thought, this is serious Haka stuff. It’s too much for us and they ran off the battle field and disappeared.

To this day whenever the British military is called to action you can still hear the battle cry in honour of Lance Cpl Armstrong.

TWO ARMS! TWO ARMS!

Controlling Inflation


With an election looming and a budget full of Welfare cuts about to be brought down, the Treasurer, Scott Morrison invited journalists for a walk through a shopping mall.

He explained to the journalists that he had greatly improved living standards by reducing inflation since he first became treasurer.

Stopping at a shop,  he pointed out: “Look there, Business shirt $25, Trousers $40, Jacket $40, Tie $10, these are the prices I fought for and which result from our Government’s excellent work in reducing inflation.”

As the group moved on with journalists scribbling furiously, one of his aides quickly made his way to Scott and said, “Mr. Morrison, that was the wrong place! It was  NOT a clothing store, it was a laundry!”

 

Sweet Pussy Cat


Don Marquis (who had a friend named archy who happened to be a cockroach) wrote, in 1922;-

At midnight in the alley
A tom-cat comes to wail,
And he chants the hate of a million years
As he swings his snaky tail.

Malevolent, bony, brindled,
Tiger and devil and bard,
His eyes are coals from the middle of Hell
And his heart is black and hard.

He twists and crouches and capers
And bares his curved sharp claws,
And he sings to the stars of the jungle nights
Ere cities were, or laws.

Beast from a world primeval,
He and his leaping clan,
When the blotched red moon leers over the roofs
Give voice to their scorn of man.

He will lie on a rug to-morrow
And lick his silky fur,
And veil the brute in his yellow eyes
And play he’s tame, and purr.

But at midnight in the alley
He will crouch again and wail,
And beat the time for his demon’s song
With the swing of his demon’s tail.