Poll Sum; 25th May, 2016


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Reachtel 6/05, Galaxy 7/05, Ipsos 8/05, GNewspoll 8/05, and Essential 10/05 were dropped

poll25aReachtel 20/5, Ipsos 20/5, GNewspoll 22/05 and Essential 24/05 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll25bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,375,050 Votes

ALP 7,624,950 Votes

Which leads to – – –

poll25daTHE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

1.666% or 249,900 voters.

The electorate is still in ‘Kim Beazley territory’. In the 1998 election he led the ALP to a majority of the popular vote but not to Government.

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PRIMARY VOTE

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Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll25fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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this week there are few controversial

points for discussion.

1:

Nick Xenophon’s NXT is already slipping from its early high numbers. It now seems impossible for them to have an effect outside South Australia.The next Morgan will be interesting as that shows the South Australian support. The experts are currently tipping them to win two senate seats.  Ipsos doesn’t show an NXT figure, nationally or for South Australia but with 15% “others’ in that state and around 9% in the rest of the country, it looks like NXT may have around 6% of the SA vote. Enough for a single senate seat.

2:

The Coalition primary number is slowly dropping and on its current trajectory (Word of the campaign) will be below 40% come election day. Can they win with that?

3:

This week’s Newspoll shows both leaders to be equal in their net popularity. The Shorten popularity continues to grow and the latest Newspoll shows Turnbull remains the preferred prime minister by 46 per cent to Shorten on 31 per cent. This is a bit of a change from November last year when the difference was 38%

4:

The MSM continues to favour the Coalition in their coverage time. The Coalition continues to play the man and to lie about which party raises taxes. The Opposition continues to put out policies.

5:

<personal rant>It continues to be impossible for the ALP to win in its own right. Their continuing argument with the Greens is only damaging the prospects of a left-wing Government. At some stage someone, somewhere needs to bang some heads together, both in the leadership, in the party rooms and out in the general mass of supporters. The aim is to defeat the Libs, not to score petty points amongst ourselves! The key is still, “PUT THE LIBERALS LAST”</personal rant>

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

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Sid and Sod #807


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Street Art


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Take your dog for a walk and have a coffee as well.

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My Wish


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