Australia Votes; What Does The Polling Mean?


The polls have been examined, dissected and decried since Malcolm Turnbull called this election.

But what does it all mean? Hung Parliament, Liberal Government or a fluked ALP win?

In 2013 the ALP won 46.5% of the Two Party Preferred vote and won 57 of 150 seats. They need to win 75 seats for a hung house this time which means a pick-up of 18 seats.

The Essential poll this week showed the ALP to have 51% of the Two Party Preferred. This is a change of 4.5% so that is how far the line moves.

Assuming this all spreads across all seats evenly (hint – it won’t) here is the result and the list of L-NP people who will be unemployed on Sunday 3rd of July.

HoRnumbers

Simplistic and ignoring the ‘marginal’ seats but some will go one way, some the other. If the margin of error is ignored and the marginal factor is ignored, this is the best guess some ten days out.

I’m assuming two NXT seats, two Green seats and with Windsor missing out. I hope I’m wrong about Windsor.

L-NP 70 Seats (Libs + NP + NXT + KAT coalition)

ALP  80 Seats (ALP + Greens + Wilkie Coalition)

 

Poll Sum; 22nd June, 2016


DDpoll1

poll22h

 

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header2

Reachtel 3/06, Ipsos 3/06, Newspoll 5/06 and Essential 7/06 were deleted.

poll22a

Ipsos 17/06, Reachtel 17/06, Newspoll 19/06, Essential 21/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll22b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll22c

2PP History

poll22dTranslating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,468,200 Votes

ALP 7,531,800 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll22daA difference of

0.424% or 63,600 voters.

Another increase of voters for the Right. This time of some 15,000 voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll22e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll22fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

This is normally the time when pollsters make very sure their published numbers are accurate. Election day is like an exam for them. Being the closest to the result is a major boasting point for each of them. And a way to increase their charges to customers.

So either the people of Australia really are split 50-50 or there is big money in saying so.  To me it is looking more and more like Kim Beasley country.  The Left will win the popular vote while the Right will hold Government.

Yes, I’m feeling pessimistic today.

2:

The bounce to the left does not appear to have been strong enough. It seems to have stalled just short of a winning position and is now drifting slowly back to the right.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 15th June 2016


DDpoll1

 

poll15h

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header2

Reachtel 27/05, Ipsos 20/05, Morgan 30/05 and Essential 31/05 were deleted.

poll15aReachtel 9/06 and Essential 15/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll15b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll15c

2PP History

poll15dTranslating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,458,150 Votes

ALP 7,541,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll15daA difference of

0.558% or 83,700 voters.

Another increase of voters for the Right. This time of some 80,000 voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll15e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll15fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

All the polls are drifting to a 50-50 position. Not good enough for an ALP win.

2:

As expected, we are seeing terrorist arrests in Sydney and Melbourne. The Abbott Police Force is doing its job well. It is all so transparent, so predictable.

3:

Heard of ‘Parakeelia’ yet? If you only read the Main Stream Media, you won’t. The biggest scandal in Australian political history and it is being swept under the carpet by the Rupert Press.

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PUBLISHED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
BECAUSE ESSENTIAL TOOK THE MONDAY HOLIDAY AND SO ARE 24 HOURS LATE.

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

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Sid and Sid #813


sid&sod813

Poll Sum; 8th June, 2016


DDpoll1

 

poll0h

header2

Reachtel 20/05, Ipsos 20/05, Newspoll 22/05 and Essential 24/05 were deleted.

poll08aReachtel 3/06, Ipsos 3/06, Newspoll 5/06 and Essential 7/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll08b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll08c

2PP History

poll08d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,419,000 Votes

ALP 7,581,000 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll08da

A difference of

1.080% or 162,000 voters.

An increase of 121,200 voters for the Right this week. Not that I can think of anything, other than a misty-eyed Malcolm Turnbull, which could have had that much effect.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll08e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll08fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

Nothing to think about this week. The numbers have reached the doldrums and that mythical British forecast is applicable. ‘Winds errr – Numbers light to variable.’

They will remain like this for another two weeks then, as we enter the final straight, there will be a completely unsubtle terrorist threat from which only a Coalition-led ASIO can save us. In a totally non-political way of course.

 

redblue

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

Image

Sid and Sod #812


sid&sod812

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Sid and Sod #811


sid&sod811