Poll Sum; 22nd April


pollpic

 

poll22header

THIS WEEK

Three polls, Reachtel 1/04, Morgan 8/04, Essential 8/04 were deleted

Two polls, Morgan 20/04 and Essential 21/04 were added

A total of 9,475 Australians were polled

Polla22

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Pollb22

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

pollc22

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,121,700 Votes

ALP 7,878,300 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll222pp

A difference of

5.044% or just

756,600 voters.

 

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll22majors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll22minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll22alpgre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

That invisibility of abbott continues to work. It shows what a strange mess Australian politics is in when the best support the bought and sold media can give its favourite son is to stop talking about him. Those numbers, while still looking good for the ALP, are showing a trend back to the right. We are almost back to the 2pp we had six months ago. Not a good situation.

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Refugees at Sea; April 19th, 2015


 

record

bar2

19th April, 2015

NEWS YAHOO reporter,Nick Butterly, reported from  Canberra, April 17, 2015, at 12:09 pm that; “Australia is moving to return a large group of asylum seekers to Vietnam using a navy ship – at great cost and under an extraordinary cloak of secrecy. The West Australian understands the Navy supply ship HMAS Choules is currently standing off the Vietnamese coast as part of the operation to hand back a group of almost 50 asylum seekers.The Vietnamese are believed to have been intercepted by customs and navy vessels at sea earlier this month, north of Australia.”

So that is yet another secret interception made by Border Protection. Yet another proof that we are being lied to by our Government.

THE BOATS HAVE NOT STOPPED!

Also included in Nick Butterly’s report is the information that; “Though no details have been given since of turn back or tow back operations, it is believed the Navy and Customs have undertaken several missions to push back boats in recent months. Last month Indonesian media reported that an orange life boat of the type known to be used by the Navy and Customs to push back asylum seekers had been found abandoned on a beach in Java.”

So there have been “Several” Push or tow backs, at least one orange lifeboat recovered by the Indonesians AND a vessel from Vietnam intercepted and its passengers returned to Vietnam.

“Several”, for the purposes of my list of refugee vessels, is more than “Two” or it would be reported as “A Couple”. It is probably less than five as that would be reported as “Many”. I have recorded two vessels since the beginning of this year.

24th March 2015 – 15 refugees reported arrived Christmas Island 18th Mar, returned to Indonesia under escort.  6 Iranians, 2 Nepalese, 7 Bangladeshis. AND  9th Feb 2015 – 4 Sri Lankans (probably Tamils) returned from Cocos Island to Sri Lanka via the Sri Lankan Navy.

So I shall record one additional vessel in March 2015 as well as one, origin Vietnam with 50 asylum seekers, in April 2015.

Which still leaves the unanswered question

HOW MANY REFUGEES HAVE DIED AT SEA THIS YEAR?

 

bar2

 

Australia has failed to change human nature.

Australia has failed to stop the boats.
They may not be getting far,
but escapees from oppression are still setting out or planning on setting out.
Some of them will not be making it..

bar2

 

 

arrival list

Poll Sum: 15th April


pollpic

 

poll15header

THIS WEEK

One Poll, Essential 31/03 was deleted.

Five polls, Morgan 8/04, Essential 8/04, Ipsos 12/04, Newspoll 13/04, Essential 14/04 were added.

A total of 11,645 Australians were polled

Polla15

FIVE NEW POLLS this week and the news is not all good if you are a supporter of the Left.

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Pollb15

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

pollc15

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,054,050 Votes

ALP 7,945,950 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll152pp

A difference of

5.946% or just

891,900 voters.

Another swing of over 1% to the Right.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll15majors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll15minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back under 50%

poll15alpgre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It seems our electorate is drawn to silent invisibility! Since the abortive “spill”, abbott has virtually gone into hiding. When he has appeared he has been behind the Minister making the announcement as he was behind Morrison as the “Vaccinate for Welfare” announcement was made.

The less he is seen and the less he says, the more popular he becomes.

Go figger!

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Poll Sum; 8th April


pollpic

 

poll08header

THIS WEEK

Three polls, Morgan 23/03, Newspoll 23/03, Essential 24/03 were deleted

One Poll, Reachtel 1/04 was added

A total of 4203 Australians were polled

Polla08

Yes, only two polls this week. It seems Essential took a holiday today and so today’s expected poll will probably appear tomorrow.

It will be in next week’s Poll Sum

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

pollb08

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

pollc08

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,963,750 Votes

ALP 8,036,250 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll082pp

A difference of

7.250% or

1,072,500 voters.

A swing of around 1% to the Left.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll08majors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll08minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back over 50%

poll01alpgre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Just the one new poll this week and that is a week old now. In the meantime the PM has not been in evidence and so it would be reasonable for his numbers to be up just a tad.

It would seem that the three monthly Newspoll summary doesn’t think much of him. 45-55% 2pp and an ALP lead in each and every state. With Bill Shorten leading him in the preferred PM polls in each state as well.

If this budget doesn’t gain instant universal approval then I fear for his position and I fear for him, personally. He is already showing signs of personality instability and losing his “preciousssss” could tip him over the edge into a Mordor-like state of self-destruction.

No, I do not like what he has done, is doing and will do to my country but I do worry for his humanity.

2:

Speaking of Bill Shorten and his apparent shortcomings as a leader of the ALP I had a bit of a say about that yesterday.

 

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

The Re-Entry Visa


The application had passed up the chain of command. No one was willing to make a decision on what was rapidly becoming an extremely over-heated potato.  Finally the head of Border Protection knocked on the door of his Minister.

“Yes?” asked Peter Dutton looking up from secret on-water matters.

“We have an application for a re-entry visa. We are not sure how it fits with our new rules on people going overseas to work with foreign extremists.” explained the bureaucrat. “It is from a senior activist cleric. He went overseas last year to take up a key role in the HQ of an extreme religious organisation.”

“The rules are simple!” replied the Minister. “Providing he pays a co-payment on his visa. Oh, wait, That was my last ministry. The rules are still simple. He cannot come back to Australia!”

“Perhaps if you have a look this application.” said the Head of the Department.

“Ok. Let me have it.” Dutton took the file, read the name and the colour left his face. “I think I need to take this to the PM.” he muttered.

His Department Head anxiously watched as he entered the Prime Ministerial office. Indistinct shouting was heard from inside.

A short time later Dutton emerged with the file and a black eye which hadn’t been there when he had entered the office.

And that is how a re-entry visa was granted to Cardinal George Pell.

tony relief valve

Change, Bill Shorten, Change!


I’ll preface this by saying I am not a member of the ALP.  I am a member of the Greens. Yet I do admit that even under Scott Ludlam, the Greens will not win Government.

The best PM Australia will never have.

The best PM Australia will never have.

No! The alternative leader in Australia is Bill Shorten. And, if we listen to vocal ALP members and the MSM and Tony Abbott, he is not doing a very good job.

So what is the job of an opposition leader?

It is to convince the electorate that he, or she, is capable of doing a better job as Prime Minister than the incumbent.

Doesn't he look like Bolt!

Doesn’t he look like Bolt!

Last century this was done by putting forward policies which counter-acted the unpopular policies of the Government, or by putting forward policies which the Opposition felt would improve Australia.

But that is so last century. Kim Beazley did that and look where he went. Mark Latham tried out the new 21st Century style  and was booted out by his own colleagues. Then Kevin Rudd tried a novel approach. He tried to look so much like the incumbent that the electorate couldn’t tell the difference. For him, it worked.

Opposition Leader for Life!

Opposition Leader for Life!

Then we had the rise of the first genuine 21st Century opposition leader. tony abbott. Not a policy in sight but plenty of character assassination, obnoxiousness and three word slogans. This has been the opposition we have obviously grown to love because it swept him into office. Now we have had six years of tony abbott, the Opposition Leader.

In 2015 we have two opposition leaders because abbott is the first PM in Australia’s history to fail to grow into the Prime Ministership. And we expect them both to act the same. But Bill Shorten is not playing the game.

In the six years of abbott opposition the electorate has come to expect, not reasoned policy alternatives and quiet politeness but aggressive name-calling and ever more three word slogans and thought bubbles.

Bill Shorten is seen as a failure and is constantly being denigrated for being a “do-nothing” Opposition Leader. For not being a loud critic of everything the Prime Minister does. For failing to be loud and obnoxious. For this is what the electorate has grown to expect from its opposition. They want Question Time antics to be extended into the real world. Just like tony did.

shortenYet Shorten is, somehow, the preferred PM, leading his party to a huge lead in the polls. Despite only being famous for his “Zingers”. Not recognised for his thoughtfulness and his questioning of the future. Not recognised for not having ALL the answers NOW! This Instant. Not recognised for wanting to have a full answer and a full plan for the future. We need our daily thought bubble NOW, no matter how senseless or impractical or stupid.

Rather he is spending time planning his policies. Refining them. And he has promised to have them out in public by the end of this year. Yet it seems this is not good enough. We need our daily thought bubble NOW, no matter how senseless or impractical.

Apparently this is proof of Shorten’s failure. We are told we must have those new three word slogans. We are told we must have those thought bubbles. We are told we must have loud aggressiveness. And we are told that we want it NOW! Not after it has been considered and refined and honed to current conditions but NOW!

Ignore the fact that a truly effective opposition plans carefully. Shorten does not want to act like abbott because then he would fail as this Government has done.

Australia needs a careful, planning opposition so that we can have a careful, planning Government.

His failure is such that his party is leading 55%-45% in the polls and his own popularity is at 44% compared to abbott’s 34%?

Why should he change?

He is quietly succeeding in his job!

Poll Sum; 1st April


pollpic

 

POLL SUMMARY

poll01header

  THIS WEEK

One Poll, Essential 17/03was deleted.

One Poll, Essential 31/3 was added

A total of 7862 Australians were polled

Polla01

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

pollb01

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

pollc01

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,879,750 Votes

ALP 8,120,250 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll012pp

A difference of

8.270% or

1,240,500 voters.

A swing of around 70,000 voters to the Left.

Which will appear to drop next week as Morgan leaves the Summary.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll01majors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll01minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back over 50%

poll01alpgre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I was fascinated by one outcome in the NSW election. The “Almost Final” primary votes shows an interesting fact of the Australian electoral system.

NSWPrimary

The “Nats” and the Greens have almost the same % of the vote. Yet one has 16 seats in the new Parliament and the other maybe has as many as just 4.

Yet the Liberal representative on the ABC panel on election night was outraged that the Greens had a concentrated vote in four electorates and this somehow reduced the credibility of the Greens. Somehow she missed the point that the Rural Socialists have been doing that for generations!

One day Australia will break free of its political amnesia and remember that all “Liberal” Governments are coalitions with a gerrymandered minor party.

Disagree? Look at, not only the NSW numbers but also at the National’s numbers in the polling above.

2:

I will repeat myself again, as our PM-thing keeps doing. As our PM-thing keeps doing. There is no way tony abbott should sleep well tonight! His budget is less than two months away and last year’s budget is still in crisis mode. Budget night will be the next big downer for the PM.

3:

Who will be the last person to vote for PUP?

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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