The so-called ‘Hung Parliament we are about to endure may be a figment of hope among the despairing Right Wing of Australian politics. A figment leapt upon by the adoring hyena packs who pass as the media in Australia.
Sadly for them, this vague hope is fatally flawed.
In the past, Australian politics was a two-party system and the loss of seats by one party automatically meant a gaining of those seats by the other. That old system has gradually changed this century. Now there is a major segment of the electorate which is choosing to vote for candidates who do not belong to either of the traditional groupings.
The long term ‘Coalition’ of the Liberal Party and the National/Country/Whatnever Party has been in existence for so long they have almost merged into a single Party. A single Party where the strength has now firmly swung to the lesser of the two groups.
In the early years of this century, the Greens began taking votes from the ALP while the Pauline Hanson horror scored some votes from the Right. The outcome was that the ALP lost a few seats, mainly in the Senate and the Coalition lost some seats, again, mainly in the Senate.
Since then while the Right Wing personnel has changed in name but not aim, the left has been fairly stable.
Now, in 2022, nearly a quarter of the way through the century, there is a new factor at work.
Due to the complete ineptness, coupled with its apparent corporate corruption, the Coalition has lost the confidence of many of its lay members. Now there is a new ‘grouping’ of candidates. Not new parties aiming to take seats from both sides of the Parliament but a new breed of candidate, unaligned but with similar aims and a single colour; teal. And the candidates are the women who should have been pre-selected by the Right-wing parties
The effect will be to take the votes of the disaffected Coalition voters.
Should the voting go the way the polls are indicating, those in the general population seem likely to take a minimum of seven seats from the Right to give the Left an outright majority in the House of Representatives.
It is what happens on the Right which becomes really interesting. The seats the Teal candidates win will all be taken from the Coalition which will become severely weakened. Even if the Left only picks up three or four seats from the badly disaffected electorate the seats lost to the Teals will leave the Right as the lesser of the two majors.
The best the Coalition can hope for is a hung Parliament. The best for the Left will be an outright majority. The worst which can happen for the ALP is a hung Parliament.
The Left showed a decade ago that it is skilled enough at Parliamentary politics to manage a hung Parliament. The same cannot be said for the Right who have had all sorts of problems with its own members during this current series of Governments.
No wonder Scott Morrison is so terrified of a hung Parliament. He knows it will lead to a change of Government with its concomitant very toothy ICAC.
It will be a reminder to the Electorate that Governments, like babies, should be changed regularly. And for the same reason!