Category Archives: politics

Poll Sum; 4th May, 2016


DDpoll1

poll04h

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poll04a

Reachtel 15/04, Ipsos 17/04, GNewspoll 17/04 Morgan 18/04 Essential 19/04 were dropped

Morgan 2/05 and Essential 3/05 were added

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poll04b%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll04cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll04dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,268,700 Votes

ALP 7,731,300 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll04da

A difference of

3.084% or 462,600 voters.

The trend continues.

Consider where the numbers were three months ago!

Next week we will be inundated with post-budget polls.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll04eOnce upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll04fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I think you just need to look at the acceleration of the trend to realise just how much help Turnbull is going to need from Uncle Rupert. Which raises the question, “Does Uncle Rupert like and trust Malcolm”

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

 

Asylum Seeker Boat Arrives.


There is a Budget being handed down tonight. There will be an election called within days. The polls are swinging away from a Prime Minister who promised so much and has delivered so little. This Government needs all the help it can get.

And so today we find out a boatload of around 12 Sri Lankan Asylum Seekers has arrived at the Cocos.cocos1

Coincidence? Possibly.

What better way to remind the electorate that the Opposition “opened the floodgates” last time they were in power. A single boat avoids and evades all the hi-tech border defence our Dutton-goons have at their fingertips to arrive in Australian waters, in an Australian lagoon. The first to do so for nearly two years.

Coincidence? No! Probably not!

We have a Government and a Bureaucracy wedded to lying, misdirection and the darkest corners of human behaviour. It is no wonder people are being encouraged to kill themselves in their care. After all a few really bad examples will make many more decide to leave.

Creative Concentration Camp Clearances 101.

So now we have another group of people being used to further the evil ambitions of this Coalition Government. They will be used to prop up the falling poll numbers by adding to the terror we are feeling from the “See Something, Say Something” advertisements which, again coincidentally, are being broadcast up to the end of the election campaign.

What will be the next election sweetener we are offered? An actual false-flag terror attack?

Enjoy the election this year.

Poll Sum; 27th April, 2016


DDpoll1

poll27h

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poll27aEssential 12/04 was dropped

Essential 27/04 was added

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%ages changed to Raw Numberspoll27b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll27cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll27dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,436,250 Votes

ALP 7,563,750 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll27da

A difference of

0.85% or 127,500 voters.

The trend continues.

Consider where the numbers were three months ago!

Next week we will be inundated with post-budget polls.

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PRIMARY VOTEpoll27e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll27fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

While those who have been following Poll Sum and Poll Bludger will have noticed the trend back to the Left, many voters have not. Their background impression of the political landscape has yet to catch up with reality. Here is what the Essential Poll of today found about the electorate’s opinion of the likely winner on July 2nd.

poll27plus

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 20th April, 2016


DDpoll1

poll20h

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poll20a Morgan 04/04, GNewspoll 04/04 and Essential 5/04 were dropped

Reachtel 15/04, Ipsos 17/04, GNewspoll 17/04, Morgan 18/04, Essential 19/04 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll20bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll20cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll20dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,479,750 Votes

ALP 7,520,250 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll20da

A difference of

  0.27% or 40,500 voters.

Just enough of a change to tip the lead to the left.

Much of a muchness next week as I will be surprised to see any new polling before the Budget, Essential Excepted

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll20e

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll20fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”. Hence the fall in “Others” this week. I have also circled the little blue NXT line for ease of finding.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The mainstream media and its blogs is feeding us two different stories about the political future of our nation.

Firstly they are telling us that our current PM, Malcolm Turnbull (for those who came in late), is leading the Coalition on a downwards trajectory.  This is the new mediaspeak term for losing popularity. While a trajectory means a path, a direction, no one is saying that, unless this is the bottom of the trajectory, it must go down further. Trajectories normally slow before they bottom out and then turn. There are no definite signs of a slow down. If anything, the speed of the trajectory is increasing.

Secondly, we are being told that the polls, currently standing at 50-50, as near as damn is to swearing, mean the election is going to be very close although the Coalition is still expected to win. That is, “win” but with the possibility of a hung result. This seems to be a typically conservative way of reading the tea leaves. The future will look like the present.

I have yet to read any MSM commentator combine talk of the trajectory and the final electoral result. So I am going to stick my neck out. After the budget, an event which cannot be dodged, the Government will take a hit in the polls. The numbers will go to around L-NP 47% ALP 53% before stabilising. It will take the combined effects of Rupert Murdoch, who is generally successful, and the combined political nouse of the Coalition, who have not proven that they have any, to swing it back to a winning position.

2:

I am waiting to see which MSM jounalist will be the first to write or say, “Malcolm may have miscalculated.”; “Tony was the man for this job.”; “Bill Shorten has played this game brilliantly.”; or even “Libs in total disarray.”

Perhaps they will use a sporting metaphor and go with “Libs follow Penrith down the ladder.”

Note to self – do not gloat too early!

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

The 2016 Budget


Want to know what the Budget will look like?morrison
 
The Government has outsourced its budget research and deliberations to Reachtel and those pollsters have now published their findings.
 
This will be the budget Australians want because that is the only way the Government can hang on to enough votes to win an election. Give the voters what they want.
 
Needless to say, just what the voters think of the Government has been suppressed. Maybe it will be published tonight, maybe not. But there is a definite attempt to separate the two sections of the survey.
 
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The Barnaby Thought Bubble


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Poll Sum; 13th April, 2016


DDpoll1

poll13h

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poll13aEssential, 30/03 was dropped

Essential 12/04 was added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll13bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

PUP has been polling so low that it has been dropped.

As soon as more than just Morgan begin polling KAT and NXT then I can include their apparent 0.5% and 4.5% respectively. NXT is showing 22% in SA.

As it is, the eponymous parties are boosting “Others”.

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Two Party Preferred

poll13c

2PP History
poll13d

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,609,800 Votes

ALP 7,390,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll13da

A difference of

-1.464 % or 219,600 voters.

Almost exactly the same as last week.

I will be surprised if it is the same next week. I’m expecting an Ipsos poll on Thursday, a Gnewspoll on Sunday or Monday night and a Morgan next Monday.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll13e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll13fAt the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos and Morgan recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. According to Morgan, the NXP lost around 1% this week. Down to 4% Nationwide.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With Essential being the only poll out this past seven days, I will give a little space to comparisons of the two leaders. These questions were last asked a month ago so that is the time scale for the changes.

Popularity

Turnbull 39% (-6) for, 39% (+4) against

Shorten 30% (+3) For, 44% (-3) against

Best PM –

 Turnbull 44% (-4)

Shorten 22% (+3)

Undecided 35% (+1)

2:

This is the seventh poll in a row from Essential showing a 50-50 result.

The last time there was a difference was Feb 23rd when it was 52% to the Coalition.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.