Morgan 04/04, GNewspoll 04/04 and Essential 5/04 were dropped
Reachtel 15/04, Ipsos 17/04, GNewspoll 17/04, Morgan 18/04, Essential 19/04 were added
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Two Party Preferred
Remarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.
2PP HistoryYes! A change in the poll leader.
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,479,750 Votes
ALP 7,520,250 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
0.27% or 40,500 voters.
Just enough of a change to tip the lead to the left.
Much of a muchness next week as I will be surprised to see any new polling before the Budget, Essential Excepted
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%
Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”. Hence the fall in “Others” this week. I have also circled the little blue NXT line for ease of finding.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The mainstream media and its blogs is feeding us two different stories about the political future of our nation.
Firstly they are telling us that our current PM, Malcolm Turnbull (for those who came in late), is leading the Coalition on a downwards trajectory. This is the new mediaspeak term for losing popularity. While a trajectory means a path, a direction, no one is saying that, unless this is the bottom of the trajectory, it must go down further. Trajectories normally slow before they bottom out and then turn. There are no definite signs of a slow down. If anything, the speed of the trajectory is increasing.
Secondly, we are being told that the polls, currently standing at 50-50, as near as damn is to swearing, mean the election is going to be very close although the Coalition is still expected to win. That is, “win” but with the possibility of a hung result. This seems to be a typically conservative way of reading the tea leaves. The future will look like the present.
I have yet to read any MSM commentator combine talk of the trajectory and the final electoral result. So I am going to stick my neck out. After the budget, an event which cannot be dodged, the Government will take a hit in the polls. The numbers will go to around L-NP 47% ALP 53% before stabilising. It will take the combined effects of Rupert Murdoch, who is generally successful, and the combined political nouse of the Coalition, who have not proven that they have any, to swing it back to a winning position.
I am waiting to see which MSM jounalist will be the first to write or say, “Malcolm may have miscalculated.”; “Tony was the man for this job.”; “Bill Shorten has played this game brilliantly.”; or even “Libs in total disarray.”
Perhaps they will use a sporting metaphor and go with “Libs follow Penrith down the ladder.”
Note to self – do not gloat too early!
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TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
Over to you, the discerning reader.