Poll Sum; 25th March


pollpic

 

POLL SUMMARY

poll25head

THIS WEEK

Three Polls, Newspoll 9/03, Essential 10/03 and Morgan 10/03 were deleted.

Three polls, Morgan 23/03, Newspoll 23/03, Essential 24/3 were added

A total of 7863 Australians were polled

poll25a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll25b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll25c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,913,800 Votes

ALP 8,086,200 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll25majors

A difference of

7.816% or

1,172,400 voters.

A substantial swing of nearly 300,000 voters to the Left.

Despite the rogue Newspoll

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll25majorsprimary

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll25minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is over 49%

poll25alp+gre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It was sad to see that Chris Uhlmann on ABC News tonight followed the News Ltd line and only took note of the rogue Newspoll. He did not even mention that other polls had been released.

2:

Here is a graph of the 2pp without the rogue Newspoll. It shows an additional 1/2% swing either way! There is no way tony abbott should sleep well tonight!

pollcspecial25

3:

While all right wing supporters and promoters are raving over the sudden change in Newspoll’s 2PP numbers, perhaps we should compare that change with this chart which shows a distinct lack of change!  Can anyone say, “This is a special Newspoll for the NSW election.”?  There is no consistency in the overall poll.

poll25essPM

I will repeat myself, as our PM-thing keeps doing. There is no way tony abbott should sleep well tonight!

 

 

4:

Morgan publishes a series of breakdowns of their polling – Here is a chart from that information in this week’s poll.poll25morgan

 

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Refugees at Sea; March 24th


 

record

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24th March

ONE BOAT RETURNED

SBS Online News has reported (sourced from AAP)Indonesian authorities say 15 asylum seekers claim they reached Christmas Island and spent three days there before being told to sail back.  

The six Iranians, two Nepalese and seven Bangladeshis were found off Sukabumi, West Java, on Sunday.  Sukabumi Immigration officer Irfan Sapari says the group claims Australian authorities sent them back to Indonesia on the same fishing boats they arrived on. They say they spent three days on Christmas Island first. “We don’t know for sure what happened, but that’s what they say,” Mr Irfan told AAP. “When they were there for three days, they were sheltered. “They were given logistics, fuel and then they were told to sail back.”

Sukabumi Immigration office chief Markus Lenggo told Indonesian wire service Antara the group includes three young Iranian girls. “From the testimony of the immigrants, they reached Australia three days ago after leaving from Pameungpeuk, Garut, on March 17 and stayed there for three days,” he said. One of the asylum seekers from Bangladesh, Muhamed Baleyet Husain, told Antara the group reached Australia three days ago.

“We arrived in Australia, in Christmas Island to be exact,” he said.  “But the government sent us back to Indonesia by boat, escorted by the Australians.” He reportedly spoke fluent Indonesian after living in the country for six months. Another passenger, Kamal, was quoted by Indonesian news website viva.co.id saying they were sent back to Indonesia in two fishing boats. “Then the boat captains who brought us left us after we reached land,” he said.

Immigration authorities were liaising with International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and Indonesia’s Law and Human Rights Ministry. Of the 15 asylum seekers, nine had letters from the UNHCR declaring their refugee status but the other six said their letters were missing.

***

So once again we are being lied to in Parliament. Watching Question Time today I heard our Prime Minister boasting to the House that his Government has “Stopped the Boats”.

Today that has been demonstrated as another LIE! One of many this Government has made.

How long must we wait until the UN makes an honest country of us and removes our claim to continuing to be signatories to the Refugee Convention.

How long must we wait until the Opposition calls the Government on lying to the Australian People and its Parliament?

It still leaves open the question I keep asking with little hope of an answer.

HOW MANY REFUGEES HAVE DIED AT SEA THIS YEAR?

 

bar2

 

Australia has failed to change human nature.

Australia has failed to stop the boats.
They may not be getting far,
but escapees from oppression are still setting out or planning on setting out.
Some of them will not be making it..

bar2

 

 

arrival list

Poll Sum; 18th March


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poll18head

THIS WEEK

Two Polls, Ipsos 2/03 and Essential 3/03 were deleted.

Morgan Poll from 10/3 was missed last week due to an email fault so has been added this week. Essential 17/3 was added

A total of 7927 Australians were polled

poll18a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll18b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll18c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,009,800 Votes

ALP 7,990,200 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll18majors

A difference of

6.536% or

980,400 voters.

A substantial swing of over 100,000 voters to the Left. The disappearance of the Ipsos poll had the effect I expected.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll18majorsprimary

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll18minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back to near 49%

poll18alp+gre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I am still impressed by the gap between the two major parties. The probability of continuing confusion within the Liberals will come to a head again, probably after the Budget, possibly late in the year.

2:

Regardless of the Liberal leadership, the numbers in the Senate continue to be the real but unacknowledged problem for the Government. The reality of the cross-bench is that there are eight individuals there, and six are needed to pass legislation. While it is becoming apparent that Ricky Muir tends towards the “working man” side and David  Leyonhjelm is a right-wing libertarian, the others are much more complex. I do not envy the Senator with the responsibility for herding these cats!

3:

The news for NSW is not so good. A Morgan Poll today shows NSW State voter Primary Votes as: L/NP 46.5 (+3.5) ALP 33.5 (-2.5) GRN 11.5 (+1). With just over a week to go it looks like Luke Foley has an impossible mountain to climb and NSW residents need to get used to the idea of no longer owning their poles and wires!

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

The Tasmanian Farmer


A Tasmanian farmer is working in his fruit and vegetable farm when suddenly a brand-new BMW squeals to a stop beside him.
The driver, a middle-aged man with big ears in a designer suit, Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses and blue tie, leans out the window and asks the farmer, ‘If I tell you exactly how many apple trees and how many apricot trees you have in your orchard, will you give me a box of apricots?’

The farmer looks at the man, obviously a city type, then looks over at his orchard and calmly answers, ‘Sure, why not?’

The city guy whips out his Apple I-Phone, connects it to his Apple Notebook and surfs to a NASA page on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite navigation system to get an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo. The welld-dressed bloke then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg, Germany. Within seconds, he receives an email on his Notebook that the image has been processed and the data stored.
He then accesses a MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel Spreadsheet with email on his I-Phone and, after a few minutes, receives a response. Finally, he prints out a full-colour, 15-page report on his hi-tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer and turns to the cowboy and says, ‘You have exactly 1,586 apple trees and 987 apricot trees.’

‘That’s right. Well, I guess you can take a box of my apricots,’ says the farmer.

He watches the blow-in select one of the boxes and looks on amused as he stuffs it into the trunk of his BMW.  Then he says to the big-eared city type, ‘Hey, if I can tell you exactly what your business is, will you give me back my box of produce?’

The visitor thinks about it for a second and then says, ‘Okay, why not?’

‘You with the Australian Government’, says the farmer.

‘Wow! That’s correct,’ says the suited bloke, taking one of brownish fruit out of the box and biting into it. ‘I’m the Prime Minister. How did you guess that?’

‘No guessing required.’ answered the farmer. ‘You showed up here even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked. You used all kinds of expensive equipment that clearly somebody else paid for, you tried to show me how much smarter than me you are, and you don’t know a thing about orchards and market gardens .. the orchard is over there. This is a field of vegetables.  Now give me back my box of onions.”

 

 

tony relief valve

Is abbott a match for menzies?


We all know the statesman-like abilities of our current Prime Minister.

It is sobering to think that one day he will be placed alongside Sir Robert Menzies in the pantheon of great Prime Ministers of Australia.

Would you vote for this spiv? Menzies  mid 1930's

Would you vote for this spiv? Menzies mid 1930’s

That’s correct. Sir Robert Menzies. He of the cringeworthy, “I did but see her passing by, and yet I love her till I die.”

He who sent lots of good Aussie Iron Ore to Japan in the late 1930’s, only for them to return it to us in a most impolite way!

He who lost his position when real men were needed by our country yet returned to rule through a campaign of fear. Not a fear of terrorists but a fear of “Reds under the Bed”.

So how was he seen during those early years of the Second World War?

Unhampered by the re-writing of history by those who own the Press?

Here is one example from 1941. The Australian Worker.

menzies

Yes. Our current Prime Minister is certainly a worthy companion to Pig Iron Bob! With added ears and lizard tongue.

Hopeless except when ruling by fear!

Poll Sum; 11th March


pollpic

 

poll11head

 

redblue

THIS WEEK

Three Polls, Newspoll 23/04, Morgan 24/03, Essential 24/02 were deleted.

Two Polls, Newspoll 9/03, Essential 10/3 were added

A total of 6184 Australians were polled

poll11a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll11b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll11c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,061,850 Votes

ALP 7,938,150 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll11majors

A difference of

5.842% or

876,300 voters.

A major swing to the right of another 1.3%. The gap is narrowing but I predict that next week, with Ipsos out of the count things will swing back to the Left again.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

Which it does this week.

poll11minors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll11majorsprimary

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back to near 49%

poll11alp+gre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The polls are still seen to be moving right. This is the Ipsos effect and with them out next week the abbott leadership will again be under threat. Actually it is now. The Right Wing’s favourite poll has the Coalition back at 55/45 and abbott is severely disliked, even by his own Party’s supporters!

I am expecting another spill when Parliament resumes. If not then we may have to wait until the last quarter of the year by which time Morrison will have had time to rehabilitate his image and make a successful move on the leadership.

How does Prime Minister Scott Morrison sound to you?

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Poll Sum; 4th Mar


pollpic

 

POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

46.427%|53.573%

6,964,050|8,035,950

 

redblue

THIS WEEK

One Poll, Essential 17/02 was deleted.

Two Polls, Ipsos 2/03, Essential 3/3 were added

A total of 8913 Australians were polled

poll04a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll04b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll04c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,964,050 Votes

ALP 8,035,950 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll04majors

A difference of

7.11% or

1,071,900 voters.

A major swing to the right of another 1.5% but still over a million more voters prefer to have no L-NP Government.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll04majorsprimary

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll04minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back just below 50%

poll04alp+gre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I, along with many other poll watchers, was stunned when the Ipsos poll came out Monday and showed a 4% loss in Primary to the ALP and a 4% gain in Primary to the L-NP. This was translated into a 3% swing either way in the 2pp to 51/49. I read that this was because the spill had failed and there was total support for the PM. Somehow I do remember a lot of discussion in the media, which would have been seen by those polled, about another spill in the party room this week. Yet on Monday morning there was this Ipsos poll which showed an apparent major swing back to the L-NP which was still within the margin of error. Not that that fact was mentioned anywhere. Suddenly THEN the move for a new spill was “almost dead”.  On Monday morning after a weekend of wild expectations promoted by the MSM we were told the electorate was happy with the new stability of the Government. I felt there was something strange going on. Today the Essential Poll confirmed that strangeness. Essential picked up exactly NONE of that alleged Ipsos swing.

 2:

Antony Green has written an amazing blog post in which he counsels us all to almost expect an ALP victory in the NSW State election.

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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