Category Archives: politics

Poll Sum; 25th May, 2016


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Reachtel 6/05, Galaxy 7/05, Ipsos 8/05, GNewspoll 8/05, and Essential 10/05 were dropped

poll25aReachtel 20/5, Ipsos 20/5, GNewspoll 22/05 and Essential 24/05 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll25bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll25c

2PP History

poll25d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,375,050 Votes

ALP 7,624,950 Votes

Which leads to – – –

poll25daTHE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

1.666% or 249,900 voters.

The electorate is still in ‘Kim Beazley territory’. In the 1998 election he led the ALP to a majority of the popular vote but not to Government.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll25e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll25fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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this week there are few controversial

points for discussion.

1:

Nick Xenophon’s NXT is already slipping from its early high numbers. It now seems impossible for them to have an effect outside South Australia.The next Morgan will be interesting as that shows the South Australian support. The experts are currently tipping them to win two senate seats.  Ipsos doesn’t show an NXT figure, nationally or for South Australia but with 15% “others’ in that state and around 9% in the rest of the country, it looks like NXT may have around 6% of the SA vote. Enough for a single senate seat.

2:

The Coalition primary number is slowly dropping and on its current trajectory (Word of the campaign) will be below 40% come election day. Can they win with that?

3:

This week’s Newspoll shows both leaders to be equal in their net popularity. The Shorten popularity continues to grow and the latest Newspoll shows Turnbull remains the preferred prime minister by 46 per cent to Shorten on 31 per cent. This is a bit of a change from November last year when the difference was 38%

4:

The MSM continues to favour the Coalition in their coverage time. The Coalition continues to play the man and to lie about which party raises taxes. The Opposition continues to put out policies.

5:

<personal rant>It continues to be impossible for the ALP to win in its own right. Their continuing argument with the Greens is only damaging the prospects of a left-wing Government. At some stage someone, somewhere needs to bang some heads together, both in the leadership, in the party rooms and out in the general mass of supporters. The aim is to defeat the Libs, not to score petty points amongst ourselves! The key is still, “PUT THE LIBERALS LAST”</personal rant>

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 18th May, 2016


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poll18aMorgan 2/05 and Essential 3/05 were dropped

Morgan 16/05 and Essential 17/05 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll18bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll18c

2PP History

poll18d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,386,150 Votes

ALP 7,613,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHARTpoll04daA difference of

1.518% or 227,700 voters.

Not a strong position for the Coalition although, while the trend is still towards the left, it seems to be slowing and THAT is a worry.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll18e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll18f

Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Essential asked the “Better PM” question and the response was,  Shorten 28% (+6) Turnbull 43% (-1). A major turn around going on here.

2:

Essential has begun showing the Xenophon Team separately. This week Morgan gave them 5% and Essential 3%.

3:

This trending thing has me worried. It is slowing and could start to swing back. Especially if a vile enough terrorist claim or act can be made or organised by the AFP. Or if Border Force starts claiming the refugees in detention all hate Australia and will murder us in our beds if they are released.

4:

The Greens appear to be losing ground at the moment but should still poll more this election than they did in 2013.

5:

Essential also asked their questions about Social Class. It is interesting.

socclass1socclass2

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 11th May 2016


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poll11g

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poll11aEssential 26/04 was dropped

Reachtel 6/05, Galaxy 7/05, Ipsos 8/05, GNewspoll 8/05 and Essential 10/05 were added.

I’m not sure how Galaxy was resurrected. Morgan also did a quick phone poll after the Budget in Reply but it was only single question, under 900 repondents and the only detail given was 51% LNP, 49% ALP. I have ignored it.

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poll11b%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll11cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP History poll11dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,403,850 Votes

ALP 7,596,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHARTpoll04da

 

A difference of

1.282% or 192,300 voters.

Not a very satisfying result but we have had Turnbull at his most reportable with a budget framed to suit Uncle Rupert and the chance to act Prime Ministerial by calling the DD.

In all respects, a very small post-budget bounce.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll11eOnce upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll11fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The first couple of days of a very long campaign have passed. It is too early to judge what will happen although all the pundits are saying the ALP will need a 2pp of 52% to win Government in their own right.

The next game will be to judge just when the Push Polling will begin.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

Poll Sum; 4th May, 2016


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poll04h

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poll04a

Reachtel 15/04, Ipsos 17/04, GNewspoll 17/04 Morgan 18/04 Essential 19/04 were dropped

Morgan 2/05 and Essential 3/05 were added

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poll04b%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll04cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll04dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,268,700 Votes

ALP 7,731,300 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll04da

A difference of

3.084% or 462,600 voters.

The trend continues.

Consider where the numbers were three months ago!

Next week we will be inundated with post-budget polls.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll04eOnce upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll04fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I think you just need to look at the acceleration of the trend to realise just how much help Turnbull is going to need from Uncle Rupert. Which raises the question, “Does Uncle Rupert like and trust Malcolm”

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

 

Asylum Seeker Boat Arrives.


There is a Budget being handed down tonight. There will be an election called within days. The polls are swinging away from a Prime Minister who promised so much and has delivered so little. This Government needs all the help it can get.

And so today we find out a boatload of around 12 Sri Lankan Asylum Seekers has arrived at the Cocos.cocos1

Coincidence? Possibly.

What better way to remind the electorate that the Opposition “opened the floodgates” last time they were in power. A single boat avoids and evades all the hi-tech border defence our Dutton-goons have at their fingertips to arrive in Australian waters, in an Australian lagoon. The first to do so for nearly two years.

Coincidence? No! Probably not!

We have a Government and a Bureaucracy wedded to lying, misdirection and the darkest corners of human behaviour. It is no wonder people are being encouraged to kill themselves in their care. After all a few really bad examples will make many more decide to leave.

Creative Concentration Camp Clearances 101.

So now we have another group of people being used to further the evil ambitions of this Coalition Government. They will be used to prop up the falling poll numbers by adding to the terror we are feeling from the “See Something, Say Something” advertisements which, again coincidentally, are being broadcast up to the end of the election campaign.

What will be the next election sweetener we are offered? An actual false-flag terror attack?

Enjoy the election this year.

Poll Sum; 27th April, 2016


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poll27h

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poll27aEssential 12/04 was dropped

Essential 27/04 was added

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%ages changed to Raw Numberspoll27b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll27cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll27dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,436,250 Votes

ALP 7,563,750 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll27da

A difference of

0.85% or 127,500 voters.

The trend continues.

Consider where the numbers were three months ago!

Next week we will be inundated with post-budget polls.

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PRIMARY VOTEpoll27e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll27fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

While those who have been following Poll Sum and Poll Bludger will have noticed the trend back to the Left, many voters have not. Their background impression of the political landscape has yet to catch up with reality. Here is what the Essential Poll of today found about the electorate’s opinion of the likely winner on July 2nd.

poll27plus

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 20th April, 2016


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poll20h

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poll20a Morgan 04/04, GNewspoll 04/04 and Essential 5/04 were dropped

Reachtel 15/04, Ipsos 17/04, GNewspoll 17/04, Morgan 18/04, Essential 19/04 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll20bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll20cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll20dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,479,750 Votes

ALP 7,520,250 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll20da

A difference of

  0.27% or 40,500 voters.

Just enough of a change to tip the lead to the left.

Much of a muchness next week as I will be surprised to see any new polling before the Budget, Essential Excepted

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll20e

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll20fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”. Hence the fall in “Others” this week. I have also circled the little blue NXT line for ease of finding.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The mainstream media and its blogs is feeding us two different stories about the political future of our nation.

Firstly they are telling us that our current PM, Malcolm Turnbull (for those who came in late), is leading the Coalition on a downwards trajectory.  This is the new mediaspeak term for losing popularity. While a trajectory means a path, a direction, no one is saying that, unless this is the bottom of the trajectory, it must go down further. Trajectories normally slow before they bottom out and then turn. There are no definite signs of a slow down. If anything, the speed of the trajectory is increasing.

Secondly, we are being told that the polls, currently standing at 50-50, as near as damn is to swearing, mean the election is going to be very close although the Coalition is still expected to win. That is, “win” but with the possibility of a hung result. This seems to be a typically conservative way of reading the tea leaves. The future will look like the present.

I have yet to read any MSM commentator combine talk of the trajectory and the final electoral result. So I am going to stick my neck out. After the budget, an event which cannot be dodged, the Government will take a hit in the polls. The numbers will go to around L-NP 47% ALP 53% before stabilising. It will take the combined effects of Rupert Murdoch, who is generally successful, and the combined political nouse of the Coalition, who have not proven that they have any, to swing it back to a winning position.

2:

I am waiting to see which MSM jounalist will be the first to write or say, “Malcolm may have miscalculated.”; “Tony was the man for this job.”; “Bill Shorten has played this game brilliantly.”; or even “Libs in total disarray.”

Perhaps they will use a sporting metaphor and go with “Libs follow Penrith down the ladder.”

Note to self – do not gloat too early!

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.