Poll Sum; 4th Mar


pollpic

 

POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

46.427%|53.573%

6,964,050|8,035,950

 

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THIS WEEK

One Poll, Essential 17/02 was deleted.

Two Polls, Ipsos 2/03, Essential 3/3 were added

A total of 8913 Australians were polled

poll04a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll04b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll04c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,964,050 Votes

ALP 8,035,950 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll04majors

A difference of

7.11% or

1,071,900 voters.

A major swing to the right of another 1.5% but still over a million more voters prefer to have no L-NP Government.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll04majorsprimary

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll04minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back just below 50%

poll04alp+gre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I, along with many other poll watchers, was stunned when the Ipsos poll came out Monday and showed a 4% loss in Primary to the ALP and a 4% gain in Primary to the L-NP. This was translated into a 3% swing either way in the 2pp to 51/49. I read that this was because the spill had failed and there was total support for the PM. Somehow I do remember a lot of discussion in the media, which would have been seen by those polled, about another spill in the party room this week. Yet on Monday morning there was this Ipsos poll which showed an apparent major swing back to the L-NP which was still within the margin of error. Not that that fact was mentioned anywhere. Suddenly THEN the move for a new spill was “almost dead”.  On Monday morning after a weekend of wild expectations promoted by the MSM we were told the electorate was happy with the new stability of the Government. I felt there was something strange going on. Today the Essential Poll confirmed that strangeness. Essential picked up exactly NONE of that alleged Ipsos swing.

 2:

Antony Green has written an amazing blog post in which he counsels us all to almost expect an ALP victory in the NSW State election.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

George Brandis; The Limerick


brandislim

tony Prays To God


The Prime Minister, tony abbott, is late for a meeting. All the VIP parking spots are already filled.

He gets his driver to drive his car into the public parking area, but there still isn’t a place to park the car.

Then tony raises his eyes to heaven and asks God, “Please help me to find a place. If you help me, I promise I’ll go to church every Sunday even when it isn’t a photo opportunity and I promise l will quit drinking and womanising and I promise to remove George Brandis as Attorney General.”
Then, suddenly, his driver finds an empty parking spot.

tony raises his eyes to heaven again, “I found this by myself and don’t need your help anymore…”

 

tony relief valve

Poll Sum; 25th Feb


pollpic  pollsum25

 

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THIS WEEK

5 Polls; Reachtel 5/02, Galaxy 7/02, Newspoll 8/02, Morgan 9/02, Essential 10/02 were deleted.

Three polls; Newspoll 23/02, Essential 24/02, Morgan 24/02 were added.

A total of 7,483 Australians were polled

poll25a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll25b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll25c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,855,300 Votes

ALP 8,144,700 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Polldifference25

A difference of

8.596% or

1,289,400 voters.

A definite swing to the right of around 3% but still 1.3 million more voters prefer to have no L-NP Government.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

pollmajorprimary25

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

pollminorprimary25

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back just above 50%

pollalp+gre25

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It seems we are back to pre-spill numbers with the two Murdoch pollsters being quite sympathetic to the Government. Possibly setting up for another spill motion sometime soon. I wonder if it will be before or after the NSW election, which, by the way, could be a whole lot closer than is being assumed out there in Poll-land.

 

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

Refugees at Sea; Feb 19th


 

record

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19th February

ONE BOAT REPORTED

ABC Online News has reported; The Federal Government says a boat carrying four Sri Lankans was intercepted by border protection authorities off the Cocos Islands 10 days ago.  Immigration Minister Peter Dutton said the group was transferred to Sri Lankan authorities at sea.  In a statement, Mr Dutton said Australian authorities had interviewed those on board the vessel and decided they did not require Australia’s protection.  He said the Australian and Sri Lankan governments worked together to disrupt the people smuggling venture.

“The Coalition Government’s policies and resolve are stopping illegal boat arrivals and are restoring integrity to Australia’s borders and immigration program,” he said. “By working closely with our regional partners we save lives at sea and prevent vulnerable people being lied to and ripped off by people smugglers. Anyone attempting to enter Australia illegally by sea will never be resettled in this country.”

So once again we are being told that refoulement has taken place. Tamils returned to their oppressors.

Not only that but we have now seen that Morrison left his scripts behind when he left his Office of Obfuscation and Cruelty.

How do we know this? The new Minister, the duffer Dutton, has just read, word for word from those scripts. He hasn’t the ability to update or change those scripts.

It still leaves open the question I keep asking with little hope of an answer.

HOW MANY REFUGEES HAVE DIED AT SEA THIS YEAR?

 

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Australia has failed to change human nature.

Australia has failed to stop the boats.
They may not be getting far,
but escapees from oppression are still setting out or planning on setting out.
Some of them will not be making it..

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arrival list

Poll Sum; 18th Feb


pollpic

 

pollhead18

 

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THIS WEEK

3 Polls, Galaxy 31/01, Ipsos 1/02, Essential 3/02 were deleted.

Only one poll, Essential 17/02 was added.

It seems the polling industry was suffering a bit of a hangover after Spillmania.

poll18a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll18b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll18c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,643,650 Votes

ALP 8,356,350 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Polldifference18

A difference of

11.418% or

1,712,700 voters.

Another small drift to the Left so still over 1.7 million voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

pollmajorprimary18

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

pollminorprimary18

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is approaching 53%

pollalp+gre18

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Only Essential poked its head above the parapets this week. All other polls were suffering from fatigue. So there was just a slight change from last week.

2:

Two interesting opinions from the Essential poll were that 61% of those polled do not expect Abbott to be PM at the next election and also, 49% of people expect the ALP to win the next election. Just 23% expect the L-NP to win.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

Australia and Public Safety


Domestic Violence

According to the most recent National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP) annual report, there have been more than 6,200 homicides in Australia since data collection began in 1989–90, with one in every four cases involving the death of a victim killed by his or her intimate partner (see Chan & Payne 2013).

It is quite difficult to find a list of deaths due to domestic Violence on the internet.

This one authoritative reference shows that, on average, over the past 25 years, 60 people have died EVERY YEAR due to domestic violence.

There is no reference to the terror and fear felt by the victims and by those who have escaped such situations. No reference to the research which shows that this is just the tip of the iceberg with statistics revealing that over 20% of women have suffered from domestic violence during their lives.

There is no juggernaut of Governmental policing, investigation and information gathering to deal with this ongoing human tragedy.

There are no screaming headlines, no great election announcements, no hysteria.

Simply an acceptance that “These things happen.”

 Workplace deaths

There are more workplace deaths and injuries than Domestic Violence deaths and injuries. There is a consequent larger proportion of our national wealth spent on combating these problems.  I will not make any comment about the fact that there are more men involved in these statistics than in domestic violence statistics.

The lastest key ststistics I have found are in the 2014 Work Place report. They are presented in chart form there.  to summarise – in 2014, 184 people died at work.

So we are looking at near 200 people who leave home for work in the morning and do not return that night.

Yes, there are Governmental departments which look into work-place safely and breaches of safety regulations. Yet they are always being subject to cuts in Government funding.

There are no screaming headlines, no great election announcements, no hysteria.

Simply an acceptance that “These things happen.”

Mesothelioma

Then there is the epidemic of asbestos-caused diseases.

“Recent Australian Institute of Health and Welfare data show that there were 606 deaths attributed to mesothelioma in 2011. It has been estimated that this number will not peak until after 2014″

However, this epidemic was caused by one man who happened to be the father of Australia’s richest and most litigiousness woman.

There are no screaming headlines, no great election announcements, no hysteria.

Simply an acceptance that “These things happen.”

TERRORISM

In 2014, New Matilda posted an article I will repeat here, in full.

Death Down Under: A History Of Muslim Terrorism In Australia  By Chris Graham

Real or imagined, the threat of Muslim terrorism can’t be ignored. In this NM exclusive, we bring you the shocking death toll of Australians on Australian soil at the hands of Muslim terrorists.

Zero.”

This was not quite correct. There was the Broken Hill shooting in 1915 which left 6 people dead, including the two Muslims who started the killing spree.

Since then four people have died in terrorist events inside Australia.

So in 100 years, an entire century, ten people have died in Australia from terrorism.

.1 of a person per year.

Billions of our dollars are being spent to stop these overly common and completely unacceptable events. Political leaders are in a lather. Millions of words are being spewed by the Main Stream Media. We are all being taught to fear the vague possibility that we may be close to such a happening. Yet we are not being taught to fear being killed at work or at home.

No! For terrorism things are different – – –

There are screaming headlines,  great election announcements, hysteria.

Simply an acceptance that “These things MUST NOT happen.”

 

 

 

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