Category Archives: politics

Poll Sum 27th May


pollpic

poll20header

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 13,329 Australians polled.

One Poll, Essential 12/05 was deleted

One poll, the almost identical Essential 26/05 was added

poll27a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll27bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll27c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,210,200 Votes

ALP 7,789,800 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll27d

A difference of

3.864% or

579,600 voters.

Exactly the same numbers as last week. Essential was almost a carbon copy from a fortnight ago

The interest next week will be if the lines move closer together or further apart next week. That will be a crucial factor in the chances of an early election.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This time, although the Coalition went up, the ALP was nearly static and the sum of the ALP and the Greens went up!

The polls had to raid the “Others” to find extra votes for the Coalition.

poll27e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll27f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll27g

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Next week all the immediate post-budget polls will expire and new polling will begin to show how Budget 2.0 is being received.

Almost certainly it will be held to be better than Budget 1.0 (or, as it has become, Budget 1.7.4) but will that be enough to win back enough votes for our current PM to risk an early election.

It will be an interesting tightrope. If there is only a small swing, he will again be at risk of a palace coup. If it is almost enough to win then he may be pushed by his office czarina into that early election in the hopes that an election swing may appear.

Of course it could swing the other way and then all the walls in Canberra will be in danger.

2:

I think this is the final week we shall see Newspoll. I believe it will be replaced by more frequent Galaxy Polls. I wonder if PUP numbers will be included.

redblue

 Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

Poll Sum; 20th May


pollpic

poll20header

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 13,323 Australians polled.

Three polls, Morgan 3/05, Newspoll 4/05 and Essential 5/05 were deleted

Six polls,  Reachtel 12/05, Galaxy 16/05, Ipsos 18/05, Newspoll 18/05,

Morgan 18/05 and Essential 19/05 were added

poll20a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll20b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll20c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,210,200 Votes

ALP 7,789,800 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll20d

A difference of

3.864% or

579,600 voters.

A drop of around a quarter of a million voters in a single week!

The effect of hip-pocket budgeting.

Sometimes I wonder if Australia deserves democracy!

The worry for the Left, and for Australia, is that this is third drop since Mid-February, each one a little lower than the previous one and each rise less than the previous fall.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This time, although the Coalition went up, the ALP was nearly static and the sum of the ALP and the Greens went up!

The polls had to raid the “Others” to find extra votes for the Coalition.

poll20e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll20f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll20g

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Newspoll revealed one of its secrets in its poll this week. How it creates its “Two Party Preferred” number. “Based on preference flows from the last election, where Labor is allocated 80 per cent of Greens votes and 60 per cent of others, the ALP has extended its 13-month lead over the government in two-party-preferred terms to be ahead by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

Other polls, especially Morgan, give that historical number, as well as asking specifically where the respondents’ second preference would go. That number is much more current and believable.

2:

Bob Ellis has a few things to say about the Newspoll and the Oopsies poll (sorry – Ipsos Poll)

http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/05/18/todays-ipsos-and-newspoll-2/

3:

The Ipsos Poll is the first to give parity to the Coalition in around a year. Could this be the first sign of an early election?

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 13th May


pollpic

 POLL SUMMARY

poll13header

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 7,752 Australians polled.

Two polls, Reachtel 27/04 and Essential 28/04 were deleted

One poll, Essential 12/05 was added

poll13a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll13b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll13c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,077,600 Votes

ALP 7,922,400 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll13d

A difference of

5.632% or

844,800 voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll13e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll13r

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll13g

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

As the budget approached, all polling firms except for Essential held off from publishing any numbers.

I expect four polls within 48 hours now. It will all be included in next weeks poll sum.

2:

Yes, a drift continues towards the right. The smiling face on Crocodile Morrison is fooling some of the electorate.

I will never forget what he did to asylum seekers looking to Australia for safety. And I will never forgive him for that!

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.poll13header

Poll Sum; 6th May


pollpic

 

POLL SUMMARY

poll06header

 THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 10,304 Australians polled.

Two polls, Morgan 20/04 and Essential 21/04 were deleted

Three polls, Morgan 3/05, Newspoll 4/05, Essential 5/05 were added

poll06a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll06b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll06c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,008,150 Votes

ALP 7,991,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll06d

A difference of

6.558% or

983,700 voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll06e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll06f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll06g

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

All that guff in the Oz this morning about just how well idiot boy is doing against Shorten in the “Preferred PM Stakes” was exactly that. It was to disguise the fact that the L-NP slipped a point against the ALP in the Two Party Preferred Handicap. And Morgan agreed with them. There was a slippage to the left. What was inexcusable was the lie in this sentence; “While Labor’s primary vote has fallen to its lowest since October at 35 per cent, the ALP continues to hold a two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition, of 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

“Continues to hold?” ignores the fact that the previous Newspoll, of 13/04 had the margin at 49/51.

Four pars later, the correct situation is explained but by then most readers will have left the article!

This is not a Newspoll flaw – It is an Australian lie!

2:

What did interest me in the Newspoll were the Primary numbers. The increase of ‘Others’ to 14% is most unusual and may explain why the ALP Primary number is so low. BTW, the L-NP Primary dropped 2% while the ALP Primary dropped just 1%

 3:

Changing polls, the Essential Poll asked a question; “Q. How concerned or unconcerned are you about the current costs of each specific expense for your household?

One of the specific expenses was “Internet” and there was an option “House-hold does not have this expense“. Just 1% of those polled said they did not have that expense.

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Poll Sum; 29th April


pollpic

 

POLL SUMMARY

poll29header

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 9,429 Australians polled.

Three polls, Ipsos 12/04, Newspoll 13/04, Essential 14/04 were deleted

Two polls, Reachtel 27/04 and Essential 28/04 were added

polla29

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

pollb29

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

pollc29

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,038,150 Votes

ALP 7,961,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll292pp

A difference of

6.158% or

923,700 voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll29majors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll29minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll29alpgre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The PM had unavoidable public commitments this past week and so we all saw him.

Could it be that the swing left this past seven days is a reflection of this fact?

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Poll Sum; 22nd April


pollpic

 

poll22header

THIS WEEK

Three polls, Reachtel 1/04, Morgan 8/04, Essential 8/04 were deleted

Two polls, Morgan 20/04 and Essential 21/04 were added

A total of 9,475 Australians were polled

Polla22

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Pollb22

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

pollc22

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,121,700 Votes

ALP 7,878,300 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll222pp

A difference of

5.044% or just

756,600 voters.

 

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll22majors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll22minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll22alpgre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

That invisibility of abbott continues to work. It shows what a strange mess Australian politics is in when the best support the bought and sold media can give its favourite son is to stop talking about him. Those numbers, while still looking good for the ALP, are showing a trend back to the right. We are almost back to the 2pp we had six months ago. Not a good situation.

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Refugees at Sea; April 19th, 2015


 

record

bar2

19th April, 2015

NEWS YAHOO reporter,Nick Butterly, reported from  Canberra, April 17, 2015, at 12:09 pm that; “Australia is moving to return a large group of asylum seekers to Vietnam using a navy ship – at great cost and under an extraordinary cloak of secrecy. The West Australian understands the Navy supply ship HMAS Choules is currently standing off the Vietnamese coast as part of the operation to hand back a group of almost 50 asylum seekers.The Vietnamese are believed to have been intercepted by customs and navy vessels at sea earlier this month, north of Australia.”

So that is yet another secret interception made by Border Protection. Yet another proof that we are being lied to by our Government.

THE BOATS HAVE NOT STOPPED!

Also included in Nick Butterly’s report is the information that; “Though no details have been given since of turn back or tow back operations, it is believed the Navy and Customs have undertaken several missions to push back boats in recent months. Last month Indonesian media reported that an orange life boat of the type known to be used by the Navy and Customs to push back asylum seekers had been found abandoned on a beach in Java.”

So there have been “Several” Push or tow backs, at least one orange lifeboat recovered by the Indonesians AND a vessel from Vietnam intercepted and its passengers returned to Vietnam.

“Several”, for the purposes of my list of refugee vessels, is more than “Two” or it would be reported as “A Couple”. It is probably less than five as that would be reported as “Many”. I have recorded two vessels since the beginning of this year.

24th March 2015 – 15 refugees reported arrived Christmas Island 18th Mar, returned to Indonesia under escort.  6 Iranians, 2 Nepalese, 7 Bangladeshis. AND  9th Feb 2015 – 4 Sri Lankans (probably Tamils) returned from Cocos Island to Sri Lanka via the Sri Lankan Navy.

So I shall record one additional vessel in March 2015 as well as one, origin Vietnam with 50 asylum seekers, in April 2015.

Which still leaves the unanswered question

HOW MANY REFUGEES HAVE DIED AT SEA THIS YEAR?

 

bar2

 

Australia has failed to change human nature.

Australia has failed to stop the boats.
They may not be getting far,
but escapees from oppression are still setting out or planning on setting out.
Some of them will not be making it..

bar2

 

 

arrival list