Category Archives: politics

Poll Sum; 8th July


pollpic

 

POLL SUMMARY

poll08h

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 11,188 voters were polled.

One poll, Essential 23/6 was deleted

Two polls, Ipsos 6/07,  Essential 7/07 were added.

poll08a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll08b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll08c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,090,800 Votes

ALP 7,909,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll08d

A difference of

5.456% or

818,400 voters.

A miniscule swing this week. the ALP picked up just under 10,000 votes Australia wide.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll08e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll08f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll08g

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The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

poll08i

The Greens are approaching 2 million voters.

The Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The numbers have definitely settled into a near 47/53 split. The electorate have apparently decided that they dislike the leaders of both parties but are sticking with their party.

2:

The Greens are approaching 13% and are on a steep curve upwards.They have gained nearly 1.5% in the past five weeks.  They are the only party making any sort of decisive move in the polls at the moment. Whether this is due to the new leadership or due to the dislike of the two majors is yet to be determined.

3:

There are nine (9) National seats in the HoR. There is one (1) Greens seat in the HoR. So the Nats gain a seat for every 66,667 votes while the Greens get a seat for every 2,000,000 votes?

Sounds democratic to me – – –

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

Poll Sum; 1st July


pollpic
poll01h

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 9,818 voters were polled. Which is around 1 voter in 1400.

Make of that what you will.

 poll23a

Five polls, Essential 10/6, Ipsos 15/06, Morgan 15/06, Newspoll 15/06,

Essential 16/06 were deleted

Three polls, Reachtel 25/06, Morgan 29/06, Essential 30/06 were added.

poll01a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll01bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll01c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,097,100 Votes

ALP 7,902,900 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll01d

A difference of

5.372% or

805,800 voters.

A miniscule swing this week. the L-NP picked up just under 10,000 votes Australia wide.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll01e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll01f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll01g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The numbers appear to be stalled at the moment. Until Murdoch-Mania strikes as we are led into an early election. Then the 5% differential will shrink.  I am tipping a very narrow ALP-Greens victory and a Left-wing Coalition as the outcome.

That could easily change to a disastrous result for Australia.

2:

The Greens have passed the 12% line and seem to be headed further up the polling charts yet may only gain two or three seats in the Lower House.  This makes a mockery of the Nationals Gerrymander.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

Asylum Seekers and Border Protectors


UPDATE ON BORDER PROTECTION VESSELS

The information your Government will not make public as it is all

“On Water Matters”.

Back on 2nd June I reported that there were three Border Protection vessels in Flying Fish Cove.

Today I have received information that ACV Triton is in Darwin Harbour.

I was also told that the big blue boat, Ocean Shield, is in Flying Fish Cove.

C!1

C!2

Unlike last time, there is no hint of any refugee interceptions yet but maybe we should keep out ears open.

There do not appear to be any other Border Protection vessels at Christmas Island at the moment although there are road works happening at the moment on the way to the refueling area around the point making this area inaccessible..

There is also a report that an unidentified Law Enforcement vessel was at Cocos last week.

SECRET

To the best of my knowledge this information is not classified as “Top Secret”

YET

Who knows how long it will be before publication of shipping movements is made a crime and this type of blog post becomes the reason for knocks on the door.

Poll Sum; 24th June


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 poll23h

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 11,292 voters were polled. Which is around 1 voter in 1330.

Make of that what you will.

Because the Essential Poll of 10/06 was a day late, it still fits into the 14 day period so no polls were deleted this week.

One poll,  Essential 23/06 was added.

poll23a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll23bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll23c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,087,500 Votes

ALP 7,912,500 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll23d

A difference of

5.500% or

825,000 voters.

In seven days, there has been an apparent small swing right.

40,000 voters have changed their minds this week.

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll23e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll23f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll23g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The swing this week with only Essential being released, is illusionary. It will be interesting next week with more polls available.

 

2:

Newspoll has released a poll taken in Victoria which shows a Victorian Two Party Preferred of 58% ALP, 42% L-NP.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

abbott’s Re-Election Strategy


tony abbott has an unbeatable re-election strategy.

He has pissed off all the women in Australia – – – But TERRORISM

He has pissed off the Renewable Energy Industry – – – But TERRORISM

He has pissed off the Indigenous People – – – But TERRORISM

He has pissed of Manufacturing Industry – – – But TERRORISM

He has pissed off all Unionists – – – But TERRORISM

He has pissed off all the anti-fracking Farmers – – – But TERRORISM

He has pissed of the Disabled – – – But TERRORISM

He has pissed off Indonesia – – –But TERRORISM

He has pissed off the Pensioners – – –But TERRORISM

He has pissed off Australia’s Muslims – – –But TERRORISM

He has pissed off Students Australia-wide – – –But TERRORISM

He has pissed off Australia’s low paid workers – – –But TERRORISM

He has pissed off Australia’s Scientific Community – – –But TERRORISM

He has pissed off the entire medical profession – – –But TERRORISM

So, having pissed off almost every voter in Australia,

come the next election,

they will still vote for tony abbott

Because TERRORISM.

IS HE CORRECT?

Dr Seuss meets tony abbott


The Original

From 2012

And he has only got worse!

I do not like this Tony Twit I do not like his plans one bit I do not like his constant noes I do not like the way he blows I do not like his Workplace Choices I do not like his changing voices I do not like his Front Bench friends with all the sense of a frog with bends! I do not like "A Woman's Place" is back in 1950's space. I do not like his thuggish air I do not like his lack of care I do not like his hate of science I do not like his Popish penance I do not like his Big Town friends I do not like their selfish ends I do not like the Power he craves He wants us all to be just slaves!

I do not like this Tony Twit
I do not like his plans one bit
I do not like his constant noes
I do not like the way he blows
I do not like his Workplace Choices
I do not like his changing voices
I do not like his Front Bench friends
with all the sense of a frog with bends!
I do not like “A Woman’s Place”
is back in 1950’s space.
I do not like his thuggish air
I do not like his lack of care
I do not like his hate of science
I do not like his Popish penance
I do not like his Big Town friends
I do not like their selfish ends
I do not like the Power he craves
He wants us all to be just slaves!

Poll Sum; 17th June


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POLL SUMMARY

poll17h

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 7,867 Australians polled.

Three polls, Morgan 1/6, Newspoll 1/6, Essential 2/6 were deleted

Four polls, Ipsos 15/06, Morgan 15/06, Newspoll 15/06, Essential 16/06 were added.

A total of 9,479 voters were polled.

poll17a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll17bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll17c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,065,900 Votes

ALP 7,934,100 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll17d

A difference of

5.788% or

868,200 voters.

In seven days, there has been a swing of 1%.

150,000 voters have changed their minds this week.

The pattern looks to have broken although we won’t know for sure until next week.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll17e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll17f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll17g

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The swing has swung and it looks as though no one really likes the budget, despite Joe’s desperate attempts to talk it up. Now, with great gusto, noise and  many many flags in the background, the terrorism card is being played and when I look at these numbers my mind drifts to the story of the boy who cried wolf.

 

2:

The Greens have jumped over the 12% hurdle for the first time. If they can increase from here they move into genuine third-party contention and, as they are pulling votes from an apparently disorganised and confused ALP, sometime soon, within the next ten to twenty years, their numbers will begin to be equal. To match the right coalition we have been governed by since the 1950’s there will be a left coalition. Eventually we will become accustomed to that radical idea.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.