Category Archives: politics

Australia Votes; What Does The Polling Mean?


The polls have been examined, dissected and decried since Malcolm Turnbull called this election.

But what does it all mean? Hung Parliament, Liberal Government or a fluked ALP win?

In 2013 the ALP won 46.5% of the Two Party Preferred vote and won 57 of 150 seats. They need to win 75 seats for a hung house this time which means a pick-up of 18 seats.

The Essential poll this week showed the ALP to have 51% of the Two Party Preferred. This is a change of 4.5% so that is how far the line moves.

Assuming this all spreads across all seats evenly (hint – it won’t) here is the result and the list of L-NP people who will be unemployed on Sunday 3rd of July.

HoRnumbers

Simplistic and ignoring the ‘marginal’ seats but some will go one way, some the other. If the margin of error is ignored and the marginal factor is ignored, this is the best guess some ten days out.

I’m assuming two NXT seats, two Green seats and with Windsor missing out. I hope I’m wrong about Windsor.

L-NP 70 Seats (Libs + NP + NXT + KAT coalition)

ALP  80 Seats (ALP + Greens + Wilkie Coalition)

 

Poll Sum; 22nd June, 2016


DDpoll1

poll22h

 

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header2

Reachtel 3/06, Ipsos 3/06, Newspoll 5/06 and Essential 7/06 were deleted.

poll22a

Ipsos 17/06, Reachtel 17/06, Newspoll 19/06, Essential 21/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll22b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll22c

2PP History

poll22dTranslating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,468,200 Votes

ALP 7,531,800 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll22daA difference of

0.424% or 63,600 voters.

Another increase of voters for the Right. This time of some 15,000 voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll22e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll22fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

This is normally the time when pollsters make very sure their published numbers are accurate. Election day is like an exam for them. Being the closest to the result is a major boasting point for each of them. And a way to increase their charges to customers.

So either the people of Australia really are split 50-50 or there is big money in saying so.  To me it is looking more and more like Kim Beasley country.  The Left will win the popular vote while the Right will hold Government.

Yes, I’m feeling pessimistic today.

2:

The bounce to the left does not appear to have been strong enough. It seems to have stalled just short of a winning position and is now drifting slowly back to the right.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 15th June 2016


DDpoll1

 

poll15h

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header2

Reachtel 27/05, Ipsos 20/05, Morgan 30/05 and Essential 31/05 were deleted.

poll15aReachtel 9/06 and Essential 15/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll15b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll15c

2PP History

poll15dTranslating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,458,150 Votes

ALP 7,541,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll15daA difference of

0.558% or 83,700 voters.

Another increase of voters for the Right. This time of some 80,000 voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll15e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll15fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

All the polls are drifting to a 50-50 position. Not good enough for an ALP win.

2:

As expected, we are seeing terrorist arrests in Sydney and Melbourne. The Abbott Police Force is doing its job well. It is all so transparent, so predictable.

3:

Heard of ‘Parakeelia’ yet? If you only read the Main Stream Media, you won’t. The biggest scandal in Australian political history and it is being swept under the carpet by the Rupert Press.

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PUBLISHED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
BECAUSE ESSENTIAL TOOK THE MONDAY HOLIDAY AND SO ARE 24 HOURS LATE.

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 8th June, 2016


DDpoll1

 

poll0h

header2

Reachtel 20/05, Ipsos 20/05, Newspoll 22/05 and Essential 24/05 were deleted.

poll08aReachtel 3/06, Ipsos 3/06, Newspoll 5/06 and Essential 7/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll08b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll08c

2PP History

poll08d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,419,000 Votes

ALP 7,581,000 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll08da

A difference of

1.080% or 162,000 voters.

An increase of 121,200 voters for the Right this week. Not that I can think of anything, other than a misty-eyed Malcolm Turnbull, which could have had that much effect.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll08e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll08fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

Nothing to think about this week. The numbers have reached the doldrums and that mythical British forecast is applicable. ‘Winds errr – Numbers light to variable.’

They will remain like this for another two weeks then, as we enter the final straight, there will be a completely unsubtle terrorist threat from which only a Coalition-led ASIO can save us. In a totally non-political way of course.

 

redblue

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 1st June 2016


DDpoll1

poll01h

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header2

Morgan 16/05 and Essential 18/05 were dropped

poll01aReachtel 27/05, Morgan 30/05 and Essential 31/05 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numberspoll01bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll01c

2PP History

poll01d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,358,400 Votes

ALP 7,641,600 Votes

Which leads to – – –

poll01daTHE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

1.888% or 283,200 voters.

An increase of about 30,000 voters for the Left for the second week in a row.

The electorate is still in ‘Kim Beazley territory’. In the 1998 election he led the ALP to a majority of the popular vote but not to Government.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll01e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll01f

Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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 points for discussion.

1:

Things are looking very strange in South Australia. The experts say the NXT could win three lower house seats with Christopher Pyne one of the likely losses. Currently the Libs hold six of the eleven seats on offer and it could be that all three earmarked for NXT are currently Liberal seats. Since Nick X is an ex-Lib all that will happen is that the pragmatic Malcolm will agree to some minimal gambling changes and he will lock in the NXT vote. Effectively, there is likely to be little change in the HoR in South Australia.

Can you image what would happen in Queensland if Bob Katter was seen as sane by most of the people north of the Tweed.

2:

None of the polls this week were taken after the Leaders’ debate on Sunday night.

redblue

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 25th May, 2016


DDpoll1

poll25hredblue

header2

Reachtel 6/05, Galaxy 7/05, Ipsos 8/05, GNewspoll 8/05, and Essential 10/05 were dropped

poll25aReachtel 20/5, Ipsos 20/5, GNewspoll 22/05 and Essential 24/05 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll25bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll25c

2PP History

poll25d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,375,050 Votes

ALP 7,624,950 Votes

Which leads to – – –

poll25daTHE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

1.666% or 249,900 voters.

The electorate is still in ‘Kim Beazley territory’. In the 1998 election he led the ALP to a majority of the popular vote but not to Government.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll25e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll25fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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this week there are few controversial

points for discussion.

1:

Nick Xenophon’s NXT is already slipping from its early high numbers. It now seems impossible for them to have an effect outside South Australia.The next Morgan will be interesting as that shows the South Australian support. The experts are currently tipping them to win two senate seats.  Ipsos doesn’t show an NXT figure, nationally or for South Australia but with 15% “others’ in that state and around 9% in the rest of the country, it looks like NXT may have around 6% of the SA vote. Enough for a single senate seat.

2:

The Coalition primary number is slowly dropping and on its current trajectory (Word of the campaign) will be below 40% come election day. Can they win with that?

3:

This week’s Newspoll shows both leaders to be equal in their net popularity. The Shorten popularity continues to grow and the latest Newspoll shows Turnbull remains the preferred prime minister by 46 per cent to Shorten on 31 per cent. This is a bit of a change from November last year when the difference was 38%

4:

The MSM continues to favour the Coalition in their coverage time. The Coalition continues to play the man and to lie about which party raises taxes. The Opposition continues to put out policies.

5:

<personal rant>It continues to be impossible for the ALP to win in its own right. Their continuing argument with the Greens is only damaging the prospects of a left-wing Government. At some stage someone, somewhere needs to bang some heads together, both in the leadership, in the party rooms and out in the general mass of supporters. The aim is to defeat the Libs, not to score petty points amongst ourselves! The key is still, “PUT THE LIBERALS LAST”</personal rant>

redblue

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

Poll Sum; 18th May, 2016


DDpoll1

poll18hredblue

header2

poll18aMorgan 2/05 and Essential 3/05 were dropped

Morgan 16/05 and Essential 17/05 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll18bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll18c

2PP History

poll18d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,386,150 Votes

ALP 7,613,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHARTpoll04daA difference of

1.518% or 227,700 voters.

Not a strong position for the Coalition although, while the trend is still towards the left, it seems to be slowing and THAT is a worry.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll18e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll18f

Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Essential asked the “Better PM” question and the response was,  Shorten 28% (+6) Turnbull 43% (-1). A major turn around going on here.

2:

Essential has begun showing the Xenophon Team separately. This week Morgan gave them 5% and Essential 3%.

3:

This trending thing has me worried. It is slowing and could start to swing back. Especially if a vile enough terrorist claim or act can be made or organised by the AFP. Or if Border Force starts claiming the refugees in detention all hate Australia and will murder us in our beds if they are released.

4:

The Greens appear to be losing ground at the moment but should still poll more this election than they did in 2013.

5:

Essential also asked their questions about Social Class. It is interesting.

socclass1socclass2

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.