Category Archives: Australia

Poll Sum 29th July 2015


pollpic

 POLL SUMMARY

poll29h

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 8,536 voters were polled.

Two Polls, Morgan 13/07, Essential 14/07 were deleted

Two polls, Morgan 27/07, Essential 28/07 were added.

poll29a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll29b

Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll29credblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,023,150 Votes

ALP 7,976,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll29d

A difference of

6.358% or

953,700 voters.

This week sees a major shiftback to the left. Pretty well back to where we were in the middle of May. A lead of nearly a million voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll29e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll29f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll29g

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The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

poll15iThe Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I wonder what you would call a swing of over 400,000 votes in a single week? All of a sudden all the budget goodness (haha), the embarrassed Bill Shorten and the terrible terror we are all told to be so terrified of have disappeared. All we are left with is a speaker wearing a helicopter cap. Wokka Wokka Wokka Wokka.

Such a pity about the $80,000,000 of taxpayers money being wasted spent on that fizzog of a Royal Commission!

 

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

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The Answer to the Refugee Crisis


thought1

Helpless Anger


Regular readers of the Archive will have noticed that my postings have dropped off in number in the past few weeks. Especially those postings with a lighter side. Without noticing it, I have been developing an anger.

Now I have realised the cause of my anger.

No one cares about excellence. Not anymore.

We become experts ourselves by watching the fifteen second film clip on the six o’clock news.

Our leaders only tell us what will gain them an extra vote or two. Our experts must have served an apprenticeship in professional sport. Our entertainers have learned all we need to know.

We no longer ask ourselves what we can do for our country, rather we ask that we are not caught as we fiddle our books and take from those least able to give.

We take no notice as all our leaders choose to incarcerate the helpless who have come looking for help.

Our children are being taught to accept whatever they are told and to never think for themselves.

As we rush headlong into the consequences of global warming, we oscillate between denying it will happen to ignoring the obvious.

I am the only one who sees the approaching train wreck. Am I the voice of one crying in the wilderness?

But I will not rant today.

No one listens.

No one cares.

MORE JOBS CREATED


I was listening, last night, to a discussion on the ALP’s suggestion that there should be a reduction of 50% in carbon emissions in Australia by 2030.

There was one major argument amongst those doing the discussing, a group who were basically supporting the status quo. Possibly for the financial benefit of their owners employers. That argument was the standard “What about the workers who will lose their jobs?”

This is the common thread to all changes in the economy.

Jobs Lost! Followed by the fear and hopelessness engendered by the loss of a job.

Yet despite all the jobs lost due to the changing technologies we have seen over the past few decades, there are still jobs out there.

What is never publicised, except in a self-serving way, is that there are always new jobs created by new technologies. Ostlers and stage coach drivers all lost their jobs when the automobile took the place of horses. They became mechanics and bowser pumpers and chauffeurs. Horse salesmen became used car salesmen.

The jobs changed! And people update their skills.

That is what will happen with renewable energy sources. The jobs will change!

So next time you see a headline about “Jobs lost”, think instead of the wonderful opportunities being created!

And stop believing everything you read on printed paper.

Poll Sum; 22nd July, 2015


pollpic

POLL SUMMARY

poll22h

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A small total of 8,308 voters were polled.

Three Polls, Galaxy/Newspoll 6/07, Ipsos 6/07, Essential 7/07 were deleted

Two polls, Galaxy/Newspoll 20/07, Essential 21/07 were added.

Poll22a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Poll22b

Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

Poll22c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,226,550 Votes

ALP 7,773,450 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Poll22d

A difference of

3.646% or

546,900 voters.

This week sees a major shift to the right. One more week like this and we could be seeing that August DD we were hearing about just after the Budget was brought down..

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll22e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll22f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll22g

redblue

The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

poll22iThe Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.

redblue

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I always look one week further on for events to show up in the polls. This week we had the Speaker’s misdemeanors come to the public attention but the Galaxy/Newspoll was taken just as the news was breaking and so would have had minimal effect. Essential works on a two week rolling average and so, as expected, is pretty much a carbon copy of last week.

2:

Next week’s Morgan will show how much notice the electorate has taken of Heligate.

3:

Bob Ellis had some strong words to say about Newspoll; “A forged Newspoll came out redistributing preferences as they were in 2013 when people trusted Abbott’s promises, or at least some of them. It showed Labor o 53, more like 56, Abbott disliked by 60 percent, Shorten by 59, Abbott preferred PM by 39, Shorten by 36,, and 25 UNCOMMITTED, and Labor winning back every seat Abbott took from them,; Shorten Prime Minister hereafter and the headline SHORTEN SINKS DEEPER. ”

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

Refugees at Sea; 22nd July 2015


RB1

UPDATE 21ST JULY

Yesterday a vessel of  “suspected” Asylum Seekers was spotted off Dampier.

The Delphinus (WA Police Vessel) has returned to port without the suspected Asylum Seekers and so we are left to assume that Border Farce has taken them under its wing.Including the rumoured women and children who are involved. Looking at the size of the vessel I anticipate it has between 10 and 30 people on board. It may be a single family.

Since it is unlikely that they will be “turned back” because they are so close to the mainland we can expect them to be sent/taken to Christmas Island. From there they will disappear until, if they are Vietnamese, they suddenly reappear at an airport in Ho Che Minh City. If they are not Vietnamese, they will probably be sent to Manus or Nauru Island.

Our much vaunted “Border Farce” and its Kommandant Roaming Fleidermaus, Commissioner Roman Quaedvlieg will hide its failure with continuing silence.

Online News outlet WAToday is reporting that Refugee Rights Network spokeswoman and activist Victoria Martin-Iverson told Fairfax Media on Tuesday “at least 25 to 30 people” were on board the vessel.  It’s very, very, very sketchy,” she said. The asylum seekers who made to an oil rig about 150 kilometres from the Dampier coast in WA’s Pilbara region on Monday were among a “second wave” of Vietnamese Catholics fleeing religious persecution, she said.  “There’s been this rise in persecutions of [Catholic] believers and following there is this exodus of young Catholics from Vietnam which we are calling a second wave,” Ms Martin-Iverson said. 

The Catholicism of the people on this boat will not raise the compassion hormones in Catholic tony or his Government of torturing bullies.

I wonder what Pope Francis would say.

Which still leaves the unanswered question

HOW MANY

REFUGEES

HAVE DIED

AT SEA

THIS YEAR? bar2

 Australia has failed

to change human nature.

Australia has failed to stop the boats.
They may not be getting far,
but escapees from oppression are still setting out or planning on setting out.
Some of them will not be making it..

bar2

 

arrival list

Refugees at Sea; 20th July, 2015


 

record

bar2

20th July, 2015

The ABC is reporting that;A suspected asylum seeker boat has been spotted off Dampier in Western Australia’s North West region. A spokesperson for oil and gas company Modec confirmed crew members on one of their tankers off Dampier sighted what appeared to be an asylum seeker boat at first light this morning. Numbers could not be confirmed but the spokesperson said those onboard appeared to be in good health.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority said it could not comment on the sighting. A spokesperson for Minister for Immigration and Border Protection Peter Dutton said they did not comment on operational matters.

SBS is reporting that;A spokesman for oil and gas company Modec told SBS that a tanker crew off Dampier spotted the boat at “first light” on Monday. “There was a small fishing vessel spotted by the crew,” he said. “The vessel was seaworthy.” He could not provide figures on the numbers of passengers, but said there was “certainly quite a few people”. “They seemed in good health and high spirits,” he said.

Apparently the ABC has reported that police boat Delphinus has been deployed to search for the suspected asylum seeker boat.

UPDATE – NOON

The ABC is now reporting that “A Federal Government source has confirmed to the ABC a boat was sighted and will be intercepted.”

And that, “the boat could be carrying asylum seekers from Vietnam

SELF SATISFIED HALF-TRUTHS!

If confirmed, it will be the first asylum seeker boat arrival in around 12 months, according to the Abbott government.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott told Liberal Party members last month that “for almost 12 months there have been no boats whatsoever”.

Despite his weasel words, the boats have not stopped.   It is just that not many get this close to the Australian coast. Hint; They never have – – –

The Ocean Shield is sitting in Flying Fish Cove at Christmas Island. So this probably counts as a failure for our much vaunted “Border Farce” and its Kommandant Roaming Fleidermaus, Commissioner Roman Quaedvlieg

THE BOATS HAVE NOT STOPPED!

 Here is a list of the vessels which have arrived/been intercepted just this year. For “intercepted” please read, “piratically boarded on the high seas”!

July 20th 2015 – unknown number of people, off the Dampier Coast near Western Australia

May 2015 – 65 people; 54 Sri Lankans, 10 Bangladeshis, one person from Myanmar and 5 crew en route to New Zealand, intercepted off Ashmore Reef and sent back to Indonesia. Rescued by the Indonesians and taken to the Island of Rote.

April 2015 – 50 Vietnamese refugees intercepted “North of Australia”. Returned to Vietnam via HMAS Choules

March 2015 – Unknown number of refugees from an unknown origin. Probably one boat, maybe several. (Alluded to in Yahoo News report, 17th April 2015)

24th March 2015 – 15 refugees reported arrived Christmas Island 18th Mar, returned to Indonesia under escort.  6 Iranians, 2 Nepalese, 7 Bangladeshis.

9th Feb 2015 – 4 Sri Lankans (probably Tamils) returned from Cocos Island to Sri Lanka via the Sri Lankan Navy.

Which still leaves the unanswered question

HOW MANY REFUGEES

HAVE DIED AT SEA THIS YEAR?

 

bar2

 

Australia has failed

to change human nature.

Australia has failed to stop the boats.
They may not be getting far,
but escapees from oppression are still setting out or planning on setting out.
Some of them will not be making it..

bar2

 

arrival list