One Poll, Essential 31/03 was deleted.
Five polls, Morgan 8/04, Essential 8/04, Ipsos 12/04, Newspoll 13/04, Essential 14/04 were added.
A total of 11,645 Australians were polled
FIVE NEW POLLS this week and the news is not all good if you are a supporter of the Left.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,054,050 Votes
ALP 7,945,950 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
5.946% or just
Another swing of over 1% to the Right.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
The number this week is back under 50%
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
It seems our electorate is drawn to silent invisibility! Since the abortive “spill”, abbott has virtually gone into hiding. When he has appeared he has been behind the Minister making the announcement as he was behind Morrison as the “Vaccinate for Welfare” announcement was made.
The less he is seen and the less he says, the more popular he becomes.