BREAKING MORRISON’S SECRECY
OPERATION SOVEREIGN BORDERS
With no asylum seeker vessels reported again this week, it is time to step back a little and look at what our “Assets” are doing. And at how they are coping. We were all rather shocked but somehow not surprised when the Government announced that half of our Patrol Boats had been returned to Port with “Cracks”.
With the monsoon season coming to a close we can expect an increase in asylum seeker numbers and also some innovation in travel arrangements from the people smugglers.
The Sri Lankan refugees are bottled up in Sri Lankan waters so only a very few will make it to Cocos Island. The Asylum seekers from Indonesia are going to head for two Australian territories. Ashmore Reef and Cartier Islands which are 97NM from Indonesia (East end of Java) and Christmas Island which is 200 NM from Indonesia (West End of Java).
Any attempt by Operation Sovereign Borders to stop them is likely to be in the immediate vicinity of these locations.
From watching the movements (at an earlier date, before the Romulan Cloaking Device was installed on all OSB vessels) it became obvious that either two or three Border protection ships would be on station at each Location. made up of one Customs vessel and one or two Navy Ships. One naval asset being an Armidale and the other being a Frigate. A frigate needs to be at each POE just to give them the manpower and the grunt in case they meet an Indonesian warship.
I would say Stuart and Ballarat are on Station at the moment.
So that part of the operational procedures is as plain as the nose on anyones face. With some Naval assets being used for diplomatic and operational duties in Pakistan, the Horn of Africa and other flag-showing and ceremonial activities around the world, our navy has suddenly become stretched.
TACTICS AND COUNTER TACTICS
We know that up until the change of government the people smugglers would send a boat in the sure and certain knowledge that they would be picked up at the two points where the Navy and customs were. So they must have worked that out easily. Send the boat and get picked up. Collect and bank the money.
When the scenario changed, they changed their tactics. For example the Jan boat that landed on an Island 23 nm north of Darwin, got past the Points of Entry and tried right for Darwin. The behaviour of the crews of the navy ships may well have been a reaction to being second guessed, yet it’s not possible to say that definitively. but a good theory. I think those islands were at the tip of Darwin harbour entrance because they fit the distance reported. So they nearly made it.
Maybe they have plugged this gap. Of course we don’t know what the surveillance from the air is like. What we can expect is that the people smugglers, like all determined criminals, will innovate and we will see new ways of refugee arrival in Australia.
The monsoon season is coming to an end and the command at Sovereign Borders must be expecting more boats and so Ocean protector would have gone to pick up more lifeboats at Singapore.
Whatever her reasons for being there the stupid and crass excuse of “Operational Reasons” for the secrecy is just ludicrous, because its easy to work out what they are doing.
WHERE ARE OUR BOATS?
Base time is at 9.12pm 7 Mar 2014 last position known. (POE = Point of Entry i.e. Christmas Island and Ashmore Reef)
Firstly, an update on positions of all Armidale-class Patrol Boats.
6 Boats with Cracks are likely Glenelg, Childers, Ararat, Albany, Bathurst and Armidale.
2 Ships on East Coast at Cairns and Brisbane. Maitland and Pirie respectively.
1 Ship heading from Cairns for relief of cracked Ships. Launceston.
5 ships on Station at POE’s Larrakia (must be towards end of rotation) Broome (Must be towards end of rotation) Both headed out for duty on 27 Jan 2014. Wollongong, Maryborough on Station for 3 weeks and 2 weeks respectively. Launceston heading to relief of Larrakia or Broome and Launceston heading to relieve other Ship.
With Cape St George in dock at Austal and Cape Byron not yet in Service the cupboard is bare. Tony has given away 4 of the Bay class vessels and is going to refit two of them to the tune of $2 million.
With the larger RAN units (Frigates) it is a bit harder to find out what they are doing but we know that Stuart, Parramatta, Warramunga and Ballarat are being used for Operation Soverign Borders.
The larger ships have much more endurance than the smaller one (Armidales) so they are now being resupplied by Success (in Darwin) as well as by Sirius on her silly “patrol” to the NW shelf about two weeks ago.
LARGER VESSEL POSITIONS
Leander class light cruiser
Sydney was at Sydney at the end of January
Adelaide Class Frigates -
HMAS Melbourne was at Port Kwinana 13 hrs and 20 Mins ago heading South.
Darwin is off Pakistan with Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), conducting anti-terrorism operations.
Newcastle was in Sydney in nov 2012.
Anzac Class Frigates -
Arunta last position in 2010.
Warramunga Port Kwinana 11 Nov 2013 Heading North.
Stuart No records found
Paramatta 7 Feb 2014 at Sydney.
Ballarat 7 Feb 2014 at Darwin.
Toowoomba 28 Feb 2014 at Port Kwinana
Perth 23 Jan 2014 at Port Kwinana.
There is an “Australian Warship” in Darwin, close to HMAS Success which is un-named. It appears to be an Anzac Class Frigate but if there are any eyes in Darwin, I would appreciate some info.
Ocean Protector, in Singapore possibly to pick up additional lifeboats.
Ocean Protector’s sister ship, Ocean Shield is still in Sydney 11 mins ago so she must be undergoing some extensive refit work at Sydney naval base.
HMAS Success in Darwin
HMAS Sirius has seemingly returned to Stirling Naval Base near Kwinana
Suddenly, there is not the capacity to easily rotate ships and crews engaged in Operation Sovereign Borders. If the vessels have to stay on station, the crews may be rotated but the vessels will receive no maintainance. This will lead to further structural problems and losing even one more Patrol Vessel puts the Navy in a position of not being able to cover all POE’s.
I would say that we are fairly buggered as far as capability goes in Naval Patrol Vessels. And Customs Vessels as well.
ON – WATER OPERATIONS
The developing policy of towing the boats back necessitates some accommodation and lifeboats. The accommodation is provided by the ships Triton (Cloaked for 2 months now) and Ocean Protector which has the Lifeboats.
Operationally they would have to stay roughly half way between the two Points of Entry, so that they can go and pick up who is stopped by the Armidales and Frigates. From there they are placed in a lifeboat and then towed back to Indonesia. There is vision available showing that Triton has been the “Tow-er” on at least one occasion. Mobile phones have since been consficated by naval personnel (looting added to piracy?) so we will not be seeing vision in future.
If a group of old farts (and some very nice young ladies) with computers and a little help from some anonymous people are able to sort out naval movements this clearly, how much more accurate would the People Smugglers be? Morrison’s “Secrecy” is a farce and is simply a way of boosting his own ego while making it easier to hide the evil things being done in our name.
Christmas Island; A trough lies off to the north with very little change in its location during the next few days. Forecast for the rest of Saturday 8 March Partly cloudy. Winds: South to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots. Seas: About 0.5 metres. Swell: South-southwesterly 2 to 2.5 metres. Max 29 (BOM)
Cocos Island; A trough lies just near the islands and is slowly moving eastwards. Shower activity should remain relatively suppressed into Saturday, then is likely to increase on Sunday and Monday as the trough deepens somewhat. Forecast for the rest of Saturday 8 March Partly cloudy. Winds: East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas: 1.0 to 1.5 metres. Swell: South-southwesterly around 2.0 metres. Max 31 (BOM)
Cirabon; 29C, wind; 15 Kmh NW, showers est 31 mm
The weekly figures I have collated.
This will be updated each week.