THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
A total of 8,536 voters were polled.
Two Polls, Morgan 13/07, Essential 14/07 were deleted
Two polls, Morgan 27/07, Essential 28/07 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,023,150 Votes
ALP 7,976,850 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
This week sees a major shiftback to the left. Pretty well back to where we were in the middle of May. A lead of nearly a million voters.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.
Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
I wonder what you would call a swing of over 400,000 votes in a single week? All of a sudden all the budget goodness (haha), the embarrassed Bill Shorten and the terrible terror we are all told to be so terrified of have disappeared. All we are left with is a speaker wearing a helicopter cap. Wokka Wokka Wokka Wokka.
Such a pity about the $80,000,000 of taxpayers money being
wasted spent on that fizzog of a Royal Commission!