Category Archives: Australia

Poll Sum; 27th April, 2016


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poll27h

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poll27aEssential 12/04 was dropped

Essential 27/04 was added

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%ages changed to Raw Numberspoll27b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll27cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll27dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,436,250 Votes

ALP 7,563,750 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll27da

A difference of

0.85% or 127,500 voters.

The trend continues.

Consider where the numbers were three months ago!

Next week we will be inundated with post-budget polls.

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PRIMARY VOTEpoll27e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll27fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

While those who have been following Poll Sum and Poll Bludger will have noticed the trend back to the Left, many voters have not. Their background impression of the political landscape has yet to catch up with reality. Here is what the Essential Poll of today found about the electorate’s opinion of the likely winner on July 2nd.

poll27plus

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

ANZAC Day


April 25th is the day Australia remembers the sacrifice of those who have given their lives in conflicts around the world.

This was the date in 1915 that the ill-fated Gallipoli Campaign began in Turkey. Soldiers of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) landed, at dawn, on the beach to be met by withering fire from the Turkish defenders under the command of Kemal Ataturk. By the end of the year the Allied forces evacuated and the ANZACs were moved to France.

Lest We Forget.

My Great-Uncle; Edward Russell Bates (Pte, 28th Batt), born 1887, Auckland, New Zealand, KIA, Albert, France, 1st June, 1918, leaving a wife and child.

The Brother-in-Law of a Great Great Aunt; Thomas John Marr Todd (Lt. Colonel, 10th Light Horse, CMG, DSO & Bar) born 2 Mar 1873, Christchurch, NZ, Died of sickness, 23 Jan 1919, Cairo, Egypt, unmarried.

Thanks to Buff for finding the following. I admit to some tears when I read it. There is tragedy in loss in war which is compounded when there is no one left to remember.

The Anzac on the Wall

I wandered thru a country town ‘cos I had time to spare,
And went into an antique shop to see what was in there.
Old Bikes and pumps and kero lamps, but hidden by it all,
A photo of a soldier boy – an Anzac on the Wall.

‘The Anzac have a name?’ I asked. The old man answered ‘No,
The ones who could have told me, mate, have passed on long ago.
The old man kept on talking and, according to his tale,
The photo was unwanted junk bought from a clearance sale.

‘I asked around,’ the old man said, ‘but no one knows his face,
He’s been on that wall twenty years, deserves a better place.
For some one must have loved him so, it seems a shame somehow.’
I nodded in agreement and then said, ‘I’ll take him now.’

My nameless digger’s photo, well it was a sorry sight
A cracked glass pane and a broken frame – I had to make it right
To prise the photo from its frame I took care just in case,
‘Cause only sticky paper held the cardboard back in place.

I peeled away the faded screed and much to my surprise,
Two letters and a telegram appeared before my eyes
The first reveals my Anzac’s name, and regiment of course
John Mathew Francis Stuart – of Australia’s own Light Horse.

This letter written from the front, my interest now was keen
This note was dated August seventh 1917
‘Dear Mum, I’m at Khalasa Springs not far from the Red Sea
They say it’s in the Bible – looks like Billabong to me.

‘My Kathy wrote I’m in her prayers she’s still my bride to be
I just cant wait to see you both you’re all the world to me
And Mum you’ll soon meet Bluey, last month they shipped him out
I told him to call on you when he’s up and about.’

‘That Bluey is a larrikin, and we all thought it funny
He lobbed a Turkish hand grenade into the Co’s dunny.
I told you how he dragged me wounded in from no man’s land
He stopped the bleeding closed the wound with only his bare hand.’

‘Then he copped it at the front from some stray shrapnel blast
It was my turn to drag him in and I thought he wouldn’t last
He woke up in hospital, and nearly lost his mind
Cause out there on the battlefield he’d left one leg behind.’

‘He’s been in a bad way mum, he knows he’ll ride no more
Like me he loves a horse’s back he was a champ before.
So Please Mum can you take him in, he’s been like my brother
Raised in a Queensland orphanage he’ s never known a mother.’

But Struth, I miss Australia mum, and in my mind each day
I am a mountain cattleman on high plains far away
I’m mustering white-faced cattle, with no camel’s hump in sight
And I waltz my Matilda by a campfire every night

I wonder who rides Billy, I heard the pub burnt down
I’ll always love you and please say hooroo to all in town’.
The second letter I could see was in a lady’s hand
An answer to her soldier son there in a foreign land

Her copperplate was perfect, the pages neat and clean
It bore the date November 3rd 1917.
‘T’was hard enough to lose your Dad, without you at the war
I’d hoped you would be home by now – each day I miss you more’

‘Your Kathy calls around a lot since you have been away
To share with me her hopes and dreams about your wedding day
And Bluey has arrived – and what a godsend he has been
We talked and laughed for days about the things you’ve done and seen’

‘He really is a comfort, and works hard around the farm,
I read the same hope in his eyes that you wont come to harm.
McConnell’s kids rode Billy, but suddenly that changed
We had a violent lightning storm, and it was really strange.’

‘Last Wednesday just on midnight, not a single cloud in sight
It raged for several minutes, it gave us all a fright
It really spooked your Billy – and he screamed and bucked and reared
And then he rushed the slip rail fence, which by a foot he cleared’

‘They brought him back next afternoon, but something’s changed I fear
It’s like the day you brought him home, for no one can get near
Remember when you caught him with his black and flowing mane?
Now horse breakers fear the beast that only you can tame,’

‘That’s why we need you home son’ – then the flow of ink went dry-
This letter was unfinished, and I couldn’t work out why.
Until I started reading the letter number three
A yellow telegram delivered news of tragedy

Her son killed in action – oh – what pain that must have been
The same date as her letter – 3rd November ’17
This letter which was never sent, became then one of three
She sealed behind the photo’s face – the face she longed to see.

And John’s home town’s old timers – children when he went to war
Would say no greater cattleman had left the town before.
They knew his widowed mother well – and with respect did tell
How when she lost her only boy she lost her mind as well.

She could not face the awful truth, to strangers she would speak
‘My Johnny’s at the war you know, he’s coming home next week.’
They all remembered Bluey he stayed on to the end
A younger man with wooden leg became her closest friend

And he would go and find her when she wandered old and weak
And always softly say ‘yes dear – John will be home next week.’
Then when she died Bluey moved on, to Queensland some did say
I tried to find out where he went, but don’t know to this day

And Kathy never wed – a lonely spinster some found odd
She wouldn’t set foot in a church – she’d turned her back on God
John’s mother left no will I learned on my detective trail
This explains my photo’s journey, that clearance sale

So I continued digging cause I wanted to know more
I found John’s name with thousands in the records of the war
His last ride proved his courage – a ride you will acclaim
The Light Horse Charge at Beersheba of everlasting fame

That last day in October back in 1917
At 4pm our brave boys fell – that sad fact I did glean
That’s when John’s life was sacrificed, the record’s crystal clear
But 4pm in Beersheba is midnight over here…….

So as John’s gallant sprit rose to cross the great divide
Were lightning bolts back home a signal from the other side?
Is that why Billy bolted and went racing as in pain?
Because he’d never feel his master on his back again?

Was it coincidental? same time – same day – same date?
Some proof of numerology, or just a quirk of fate?
I think it’s more than that, you know, as I’ve heard wiser men,
Acknowledge there are many things that go beyond our ken

Where craggy peaks guard secrets neath dark skies torn asunder
Where hoofbeats are companions to the rolling waves of thunder
Where lightning cracks like 303’s and ricochets again
Where howling moaning gusts of wind sound just like dying men.

Some Mountain cattlemen have sworn on lonely alpine track
They’ve glimpsed a huge black stallion – Light Horseman on his back.
Yes sceptics say, it’s swirling clouds just forming apparitions
Oh no, my friend you cant dismiss all this as superstition

The desert of Beersheba – or windswept Aussie range
John Stuart rides forever there – Now I don’t find that strange.
Now some gaze at this photo, and they often question me
And I tell them a small white lie, and say he’s family.
‘You must be proud of him.’ they say – I tell them, one and all,
That’s why he takes the pride of place – my Anzac on the Wall.


‘The Anzac on the Wall’ was written as performance poetry by Jim Brown of Victoria. He won 1st place for ‘original performance’ of this poem at the 2005 Victorian Bush Poetry Championships.
While John Stuart was fictional, there was nothing fictional about the Light Horse Charge at Beersheba.

Poll Sum; 20th April, 2016


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poll20h

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poll20a Morgan 04/04, GNewspoll 04/04 and Essential 5/04 were dropped

Reachtel 15/04, Ipsos 17/04, GNewspoll 17/04, Morgan 18/04, Essential 19/04 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll20bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll20cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll20dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,479,750 Votes

ALP 7,520,250 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll20da

A difference of

  0.27% or 40,500 voters.

Just enough of a change to tip the lead to the left.

Much of a muchness next week as I will be surprised to see any new polling before the Budget, Essential Excepted

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll20e

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll20fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”. Hence the fall in “Others” this week. I have also circled the little blue NXT line for ease of finding.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The mainstream media and its blogs is feeding us two different stories about the political future of our nation.

Firstly they are telling us that our current PM, Malcolm Turnbull (for those who came in late), is leading the Coalition on a downwards trajectory.  This is the new mediaspeak term for losing popularity. While a trajectory means a path, a direction, no one is saying that, unless this is the bottom of the trajectory, it must go down further. Trajectories normally slow before they bottom out and then turn. There are no definite signs of a slow down. If anything, the speed of the trajectory is increasing.

Secondly, we are being told that the polls, currently standing at 50-50, as near as damn is to swearing, mean the election is going to be very close although the Coalition is still expected to win. That is, “win” but with the possibility of a hung result. This seems to be a typically conservative way of reading the tea leaves. The future will look like the present.

I have yet to read any MSM commentator combine talk of the trajectory and the final electoral result. So I am going to stick my neck out. After the budget, an event which cannot be dodged, the Government will take a hit in the polls. The numbers will go to around L-NP 47% ALP 53% before stabilising. It will take the combined effects of Rupert Murdoch, who is generally successful, and the combined political nouse of the Coalition, who have not proven that they have any, to swing it back to a winning position.

2:

I am waiting to see which MSM jounalist will be the first to write or say, “Malcolm may have miscalculated.”; “Tony was the man for this job.”; “Bill Shorten has played this game brilliantly.”; or even “Libs in total disarray.”

Perhaps they will use a sporting metaphor and go with “Libs follow Penrith down the ladder.”

Note to self – do not gloat too early!

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

The 2016 Budget


Want to know what the Budget will look like?morrison
 
The Government has outsourced its budget research and deliberations to Reachtel and those pollsters have now published their findings.
 
This will be the budget Australians want because that is the only way the Government can hang on to enough votes to win an election. Give the voters what they want.
 
Needless to say, just what the voters think of the Government has been suppressed. Maybe it will be published tonight, maybe not. But there is a definite attempt to separate the two sections of the survey.
 
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The Barnaby Thought Bubble


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Poll Sum; 13th April, 2016


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poll13h

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poll13aEssential, 30/03 was dropped

Essential 12/04 was added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll13bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

PUP has been polling so low that it has been dropped.

As soon as more than just Morgan begin polling KAT and NXT then I can include their apparent 0.5% and 4.5% respectively. NXT is showing 22% in SA.

As it is, the eponymous parties are boosting “Others”.

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Two Party Preferred

poll13c

2PP History
poll13d

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,609,800 Votes

ALP 7,390,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll13da

A difference of

-1.464 % or 219,600 voters.

Almost exactly the same as last week.

I will be surprised if it is the same next week. I’m expecting an Ipsos poll on Thursday, a Gnewspoll on Sunday or Monday night and a Morgan next Monday.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll13e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll13fAt the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos and Morgan recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. According to Morgan, the NXP lost around 1% this week. Down to 4% Nationwide.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With Essential being the only poll out this past seven days, I will give a little space to comparisons of the two leaders. These questions were last asked a month ago so that is the time scale for the changes.

Popularity

Turnbull 39% (-6) for, 39% (+4) against

Shorten 30% (+3) For, 44% (-3) against

Best PM –

 Turnbull 44% (-4)

Shorten 22% (+3)

Undecided 35% (+1)

2:

This is the seventh poll in a row from Essential showing a 50-50 result.

The last time there was a difference was Feb 23rd when it was 52% to the Coalition.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

Poll Sum; 6th April, 2016


DDpoll1

poll06h

 

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poll06a

GNewspoll 20/03, Morgan 21/03 and Essential, 22/03 were dropped

Morgan 04/04, GNewspoll 04/04 and Essential 05/04 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.poll06b

PUP has been polling so low that it has been dropped.

As soon as more than just Morgan begin polling KAT and NXT then I can include their apparent 0.5% and 4.5% respectively. NXT is showing 22% in SA.

As it is, the eponymous parties are boosting “Others”.

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Two Party Preferred

poll06c

2PP History
poll06d

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,609,950 Votes

ALP 7,390,050 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll06da

A difference of

-1.466 % or 219,900 voters.

Another small swing of about 40,000 back right.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll06e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll06fAt the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos and Morgan recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. According to Morgan, the NXP lost around 1% this week. Down to 4% Nationwide.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The major influence on the numbers this week is the Morgan Poll. I thought it may be an interesting exercise to quote Gary Morgan’s own words so you can decide just where they intersect with the reality of the past fortnight. The bolding of some phrases is my own comment; Æ.

Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP 52.5% (up 3%) back in front of the ALP 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis after Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull showed leadership which had been lacking for some time.

“Turnbull ‘pro-rogued’ the Australian Parliament, including a reluctant Senate, to come back and sit for three weeks from mid-April to debate, and pass, the Government’s contentious legislation to reintroduce the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) – the first time the Australian Parliament has been ‘pro-rogued’ for nearly 40 years, since 1977. (Note – At the conclusion of the 40th Parliament Prime Minister Howard indicated that the timing of the prorogation and dissolution (announced on 29 August for 31 August) was to allow the Senate to sit in the intervening period.)

“Turnbull’s recall of Parliament to debate the legislation carries the explicit threat that if not passed in the three weeks from Monday April 18 he will call a Double Dissolution Federal Election for Saturday July 2 – the first since 1987. Minor party Senate cross-benchers can now decide whether Australia faces an early Double Dissolution Federal Election in July or the Federal Election is later in the year.

“The move by Turnbull came after weeks of back-and-forth arguments about various types of taxation reform – including increasing the GST which failed to ‘inspire’ the Australian electorate – now abandoned by the Turnbull Government in the name of ‘political expediency’.

“By bringing a halt (about two weeks ago) to what seemed like policy ‘drift’ Turnbull has re-established the Federal Government as ‘better managers’ by explicitly linking economic management to union corruption in the building and construction industry.

“This week’s Morgan Poll lift in L-NP support (now L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%) shows this message connects strongly to the policies the Turnbull Government will fight the Federal Election.

The Federal Opposition has stated they will campaign at the Federal Election on increasing Federal funding including Health and Education (both State issues) from raising significant revenue from elimination of taxation minimisation. Last weekend Turnbull ‘cleverly’ outmanoeuvred the States and Federal Opposition by neutralising health and education funding by offering State Premiers the right to raise their own State income tax – good policy but political suicide!

”In these difficult times, the only real solution is to cut Local, State and Federal Government spending.”

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.