Category Archives: Australia

Poll Sum; 27th July 2016

Ballot box


As the name of this series indicates it is a summary of published polls within Australia.

Since the Double Dissolution Election of July 2nd there has been a dearth of polls. Even the final official numbers from the Electoral Commission have not been released. Not that this is a problem or anything new. The official end of the count is always five weeks after the election. The difference this time is that it is a very close result and in a time of instant gratification, there is an impatience. The main new effect of this apparent slowness is a sudden push by some background groups to change to an electronic system. This idea has been taken up by a vocal group of cyber-savvy supporters. This is despite the fear of hacking in almost every other area of cyber-space. The question should be; ‘Who creates the software and who would benefit from being able to play with the electrons and the consequent organised election result?’


The only company continuing to poll is Essential Vision. Since the election they have released four polls.  Just giving the 2pp numbers is sufficient until a true Poll Sum can be resumed.

5th July –   L-NP 50% ALP 50%

12th July – L-NP 49% ALP 51%

19th July – L-NP 49% ALP 51%

26th July – L-NP 48% ALP 52%

The ‘Mediscare’ is finally sinking in as being based in horrible, grotesque fact and the general public has realised that $50Billion being given to overseas multinationals will not create one job in Australia and will do nothing to promote growth in Australia.


Interestingly, the National Vote according to the AEC has swung Left again. It was out to around 50.37 to the LINO’s (Liberals In Name Only) when there were 80% of electors counted. It is now almost back where Poll Sum had the numbers three days before the election. That is on 84.19% of electors counted – it will rise to around 90%

Liberal/National Coalition 6,252,988 50.11 -3.38
Australian Labor Party 6,225,927 49.89 +3.38




Malcolm Turnbull was able to fluke an election win on the day yet appears to have continued to lose popularity. How long will he last as leader?

How long will this dysfunctional Government last in a fractured Parliament?

Democracy and the Zamia Palm

(I wrote this in November of 2006.)
(A decade on, with events in Turkey, Thailand, Burma, on the) (African Continent and elsewhere it still seems relevant.)

bar - stones

Macrozamia riedlei, the Zamia Palm is a pretty, palm-like plant of South Western Australia. It is also quite poisonous and has lead to the death of many imported herd animals. Yet the original inhabitants of the area, both human and animal, all lived comfortably with this plant and were even able to add it to their diet.

Macrozamia riedlei (Zamia Palm)

I am led to wonder about other transplants and importations. Democracy is a wonderful political invention. There is no doubt of this fact. It is also a recent evolution in history. It may even be a short-lived failure. Yet if it were so, it will be remembered as a beautiful failure.

Perhaps we should look as closely at Democracy as we do at our plants. Should it be grown in all soils? Does it need a special fertiliser? Could it be poisonous in some climates?

A quick overview of the origins of Democracy would note that an aborted form occurred in Ancient Greece. That Democracy, in part, grew out of the very bloody French Revolution and was immediately transplanted to North America. That it also grew out of the 13th century Magna Carta in England. This was a slow gestation and it was not until the early years of the 20th century that it finally bore the fruit of electoral equality in Britain and its Empire. Europe also saw a successful flowering of Democracy.

There have been many attempts to transplant and impose Democracy into other parts of the world. Most have failed and the transplant has turned poisonous. Much of Africa is ruled by poisonous mutations of democracy. Other variations can be seen in much of Asia and Arabia. Democracy seems to work for a while, then it degenerates into a dictatorship of the small majority. Genocide and electoral manipulation leads to that small majority entrenching itself. Without the correct soil and nutrients, Democracy rapidly mutates into a poisonous caricature.

My American friends often tell me that they do not live in a democracy. That the USA is a Republic. Looking at the political garden in North America, I tend to agree. Democracy has failed that particular transplant. It now exudes a noxious patronage which is afflicting the whole system.

Our headlines at the moment, without mentioning the word, are about America’s urge to transplant democracy yet again. This time into Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea. As political horticulturist I fear for the twisted forms these experiments will take.

Like the Zamia Palm, Democracy can be fatal to those who have not been acclimatised to it from birth.

This Land Was Your Land

So now we look forward to another three years of a Coalition Government.

The Abbott/Turnbull Government did a good job implementing some of the IPA’s 75 dot-point ideas. However there are still many as yet unimplemented ideas. The Coalition, with its huge majority in the Reps thought it was going to be immortal and so did not have to rush things.

The new Turnbull/Whoever Government knows it only has this term to complete the real Conservative plan. The one no one talks about. The one where Australia is sold to all their supporters. And the Bill Shorten-led ALP has proven that the electorate does not want that to happen. The next election will return Labor  to the Treasury benches.

With a fractious Senate, a bare majority in the Reps and falling popularity in voter-land, Turnbull will have to give all he can to the IPA to keep the position he paid a million dollars to hold. He may not get the full three years. In fact this divided Government may not get the full three years.

Things are going to get a lot worse for us ordinary folk. Medicare and pensions will be just the tip of the ice-berg. By the end of this Government we probably will not have a public broadcaster to rescue. We shall lose all credibility as a provider of Foreign Aid. Our USA-China problems will be exacerbated.  The Union movement will be completely emasculated. Don’t even think about the possibility of taxation fairness or economic recovery. We will be lucky to salvage a -A rating by the end of this term.

Things will get so much harder for the average Australian and it will be because the Coalition will be pushing as much through to benefit their cronies as they can before losing the 2016/7/8/9 election. Whenever it is.

A maximum of three years to pad their mates wallets before the hard times of an honest Labor Government.

Mediscare or Mediascare?

Oh how horrid of Bill Shorten to claim that the Government was planning to privatise Medicare.


Malcolm Turnbull broke his “what an exciting time” face for the only time during his overly long election campaign. He called it an ‘outrageous! lie!’ and, yes, you could hear the exclamation marks in his words. The unexpected horror at being found out. He had carefully hidden Health Minister Susan Lie away during the campaign because she is the one who makes the announcements about the unpopular chipping away at the foundation of the Health Care System.

In the week before election day, we, the voters were bombarded with the news that Bill Shorten had LIED! Every media outlet, print, radio and television, all kept repeating the Prime Ministerial line.


So loudly we couldn’t hear ourselves ask, “But didn’t tony abbott lie before the last election? No, I’m not talking about his ‘no cuts’ lies. I’m talking about that Carbon Tax lie. The lie Julia Gillard did NOT make! The abbott lie that we would all get cheaper electricity. $550 per year cheaper. You know, that big decrease in power bills you have all noticed and commented on.


Now, in July 2016 we are still being told it is such an outrageous lie to suggest that a Turnbull Government could even begin to think about the possibility of maybe privatising Medicare in any way, shape or form.  No one in the Media even mentioned or asked about “Primary health care, Medicare rebates, private health insurance, prescription medicine payments, mental health care and electronic health records are all slated for major changes” under the six major reviews which have happened during 2016. Such a question would be a sign of blasphemy and reason for a change in career for anyone silly enough to ask it.

The media has kept on reading the press releases from the Turnbull Government as though they were Gospel Truth. Written-in-stone pronouncements from the burning bush of the Mt Sinai of Canberra. Not to be questioned or altered in the slightest way but recited in a 21st Century form of monkish plainsong for the enlightenment of the gathered congregation of the worshippers voters.

Then this morning we read in the ABC Online News that the Head of the Australian Medical Association, “Michael Gannon says in an ideal world the PM would unfreeze the Medicare rebate tomorrow.” This, despite being the person who was the first to call out the ALP on its “LIE” even before the Turnbull cult had realised its potency. Michael Gannon, whose bestie is Mathias Cormann has been softening up the Australian public with threats of a $20 or $25 co-payment for doctors’ visits. That, apparently is not “privatising Medicare”.


I will not go through the arguments that you tell what a politician, or political party, has as its plans, not by what it says but by what it does. And the Coalition has been looking for ways to demolish Medicare since the apostate Gough introduced it in the 1970’s. Saint Malcolm of Fraser tried the crash through approach and failed. This Malcolm is trying the ‘one brick at a time’ method. Mixing the metaphor, somewhat like the frog in the pot of water heating on the stove. It doesn’t realise the danger till it is far too late.


The media will continue to scare us all with tales of the ALP LIE just as they continue to scare us with the THREAT OF CORRUPT UNIONS and make no comment about corporate corruption which is always done by just a few rogue individuals. For that is the parable they have been told from the Burning Bush.

We will continue to be loudly lied to about the ‘Mediscare Lie’ while, in the background there is a quiet chipping away at the basic foundations of Australia’s health system.

And those individuals in the Media who keep telling us about that Mediscare Lie will keep checking their bank balances to make sure they have done their master’s bidding in singing the Press Release Plainsong of the day and have kept their jobs. For now.




Poll Sum; 13th July 2016


My summary of the results of the
Turnbull Double Dissolution Election so far.


NOTE1:- Numbers are at close of Counting, 12th July, 2016 from the AEC Website

NOTE2:- The dates are set at the first day of each election year so that the charts look right. I wish I was an an expert in Excel.

While the numbers for this election are not yet complete, they are getting close. These charts will be updated should there be a major change.

While the ALP and the Greens numbers are as shown in the AEC lists as individual parties, there is no number given for the LNP. I have combined the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party, The National Party and the Country Liberals (NT) into a single figure.

Remember the proud Abbott boast that the Liberals would never form a coalition?


Senator Brandis has been out on the publicity tour spouting the falsehood that the ALP vote is the lowest since 1930. My numbers only go back to the turn of the current century but here they are.


It can easily be seen that not only is the ALP vote NOT the lowest for this century (and by extension not since 1930) but that the LNP vote IS the lowest this century!

Does this mean that Senator Brandis was telling lies?



The Greens have stagnated a bit since Bob Brown has left the Parliament.


The Greens have a strange habit of polling very well between elections but they drop back at election time.


The vote for ‘Others’ is at a near high for this century. The Hanson and Xenophon effects have boosted it this election.


One voter in eight voted ‘Other’. Not the highest ever but very close. A sign that neither major party is truly popular at the moment.


One part of the poll tends to remain the same. The Informals.


Bouncing between 4%and 6% they are the most reliable part of the electorate.


There has been just a single ‘Voting Intention’ poll since election day and that was an Essential which came out Tuesday 5th July. It showed a 50-50 split.


How accurate is Poll Sum?

Any polling system is only as good as its exam results show. Polling exams are the actual elections.

As of this morning the AEC is reporting a Two Party Preferred of L-NP 50.28%, ALP 49.72%

In the Poll Sum immediately prior to the election the Two Party Preferred was L-NP 50.11%  ALP 49.89%

I think I passed :)

Memo to Pauline

Memo to Pauline Hanson

From: Ærchie (Perth)

I have only one thing to say to you.

Oi Oi Oi

(The original image was found in a laneway in the Perth CBD)




Poll Sum; 29th June 2016





Reachtel 9/06, and Essential 15/06 were deleted.


Reachtel 23/06, Galaxy 26/06 Newspoll 26/06, Essential 28/06 were added


%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll29bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.


Two Party Preferred


2PP History

poll29dTranslating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,516,650 Votes

ALP 7,483,350 Votes

Which leads to – – –


poll29daA difference of

0.222% or 33,300 voters.




Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

This week’s Essential Poll has the Coalition on a Primary vote of 39%


poll29fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.



ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel


points for discussion.


The Morgan Poll seems to be overdue. From January it has been published each month until the election was called. Then it went into a fortnightly cycle but there has been no Morgan since 30th May! If there is no Morgan before the election, the average punter must begin to wonder why.

Not that Morgan have not been polling. In the past fortnight they have released results from a number of individual seats.

Last seen, Morgan had a 2pp 51% to the ALP. Are they trying to hide the fact that their polling is showing a really bad outcome for the Coalition?



Yes, the L-NP is now leading by a minuscule number of voters. This could be because there is no Morgan poll to balance the push polling of Galaxy and Newspoll.


I expect more polls between now and the end of Friday. Then there will be the reset of the actual vote in the election. There may be another Poll Sum om Friday night if there are new polls. and it is quite possible there will be none next Wednesday.




Over to you, the discerning reader.