Poll Sum; 18th May, 2016

DDpoll1

poll18hredblue

header2

poll18aMorgan 2/05 and Essential 3/05 were dropped

Morgan 16/05 and Essential 17/05 were added.

redblue

%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll18bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

redblue

Two Party Preferred

poll18c

2PP History

poll18d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,386,150 Votes

ALP 7,613,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHARTpoll04daA difference of

1.518% or 227,700 voters.

Not a strong position for the Coalition although, while the trend is still towards the left, it seems to be slowing and THAT is a worry.

redblue

PRIMARY VOTE

poll18e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll18f

Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

redblue

POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Essential asked the “Better PM” question and the response was,  Shorten 28% (+6) Turnbull 43% (-1). A major turn around going on here.

2:

Essential has begun showing the Xenophon Team separately. This week Morgan gave them 5% and Essential 3%.

3:

This trending thing has me worried. It is slowing and could start to swing back. Especially if a vile enough terrorist claim or act can be made or organised by the AFP. Or if Border Force starts claiming the refugees in detention all hate Australia and will murder us in our beds if they are released.

4:

The Greens appear to be losing ground at the moment but should still poll more this election than they did in 2013.

5:

Essential also asked their questions about Social Class. It is interesting.

socclass1socclass2

redblue

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s