Poll Sum; 18th May, 2016

Morgan 2/05 and Essential 3/05 were dropped

Morgan 16/05 and Essential 17/05 were added.

%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Two Party Preferred

2PP History

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,386,150 Votes

ALP 7,613,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHARTA difference of

1.518% or 227,700 voters.

Not a strong position for the Coalition although, while the trend is still towards the left, it seems to be slowing and THAT is a worry.

PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIES

Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

POLLING SOURCES

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Essential asked the “Better PM” question and the response was,  Shorten 28% (+6) Turnbull 43% (-1). A major turn around going on here.

2:

Essential has begun showing the Xenophon Team separately. This week Morgan gave them 5% and Essential 3%.

3:

This trending thing has me worried. It is slowing and could start to swing back. Especially if a vile enough terrorist claim or act can be made or organised by the AFP. Or if Border Force starts claiming the refugees in detention all hate Australia and will murder us in our beds if they are released.

4:

The Greens appear to be losing ground at the moment but should still poll more this election than they did in 2013.

5:

Essential also asked their questions about Social Class. It is interesting.

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.