POLL SUMMARY
Essential 1/03 was dropped
Ipsos 12/03 and Essential 15/03 were added.
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,703,850 Votes
ALP 7,296,150 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
-2.718 % or 407700 voters.
A swing of around 70,000 to the right. All due to a rather strange Ipsos Poll.
PRIMARY VOTE
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
“MINOR” PARTIES
At the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. I would really like to have some confirmation on the 5% nationwide.
POLLING SOURCES
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
1:
What a strange result the Ipsos poll had. The South Australian numbers alone were enough to show the odd nature of this poll. Essential, for the third week in a row has a 50-50 result and now we have to wait to see if GNewspoll holds its 50-50 numbers.
2:
We have two polls (Morgan and Ipsos) returning a 47-53 percentage while Gnewspoll and Essential both have a 50-50 split. In another couple of weeks we should see another Reachtel poll which could match the 47-53 result.
3:
It is time all polls started going out into the public arena and finding just what the man and woman in the street is thinking.
All this robo-calling is beginning to fray at the edges and look very similar to Push Polling.The other modern polling method is to poll a self-selected group of voters ! Sorry, that is not going to produce a real result.
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