Poll Sum; 16th March, 2016

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POLL SUMMARY

poll16h

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poll16aEssential 1/03 was dropped

Ipsos 12/03 and Essential 15/03 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll16bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

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Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,703,850 Votes

ALP 7,296,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll16daA difference of

 -2.718 % or 407700 voters.

A swing of around 70,000 to the right. All due to a rather strange Ipsos Poll.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll16e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll16fAt the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. I would really like to have some confirmation on the 5% nationwide.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

What a strange result the Ipsos poll had. The South Australian numbers alone were enough to show the odd nature of this poll. Essential, for the third week in a row has a 50-50 result and now we have to wait to see if GNewspoll holds its 50-50 numbers.

2:

We have two polls (Morgan and Ipsos) returning a 47-53 percentage while Gnewspoll and Essential both have a 50-50 split. In another couple of weeks we should see another Reachtel poll which could match the 47-53 result.

3:

It is time all polls started going out into the public arena and finding just what the man and woman in the street is thinking.

All this robo-calling is beginning to fray at the edges and look very similar to Push Polling.The other modern polling method is to poll a self-selected group of voters ! Sorry, that is not going to produce a real result.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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