Poll Sum; 17th February, 2016

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POLL SUMMARY

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poll17aEssential 27/01, GNewspoll 01/02 Essential 02/02 were dropped

Reachtel 12/02, Ipsos 14/02, Essential 16/02 were added.

A total of 11,021 voters were polled. With the proviso that Essential have not given a sample size in its past two polls. I have given a default number of 1800 in each case.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll17bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

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Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,852,050 Votes

ALP 7,147,950 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll17daA difference of

-4.694% or 704,100 voters.

The numbers have settled down to under 5% difference.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll17e

“MINOR” PARTIES

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I get the feeling that the numbers are going to bounce around their current values until something dramatic like #libspill or a budget happens.

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

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