POLL SUMMARY
Essential 27/01, GNewspoll 01/02 Essential 02/02 were dropped
Reachtel 12/02, Ipsos 14/02, Essential 16/02 were added.
A total of 11,021 voters were polled. With the proviso that Essential have not given a sample size in its past two polls. I have given a default number of 1800 in each case.
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,852,050 Votes
ALP 7,147,950 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
-4.694% or 704,100 voters.
The numbers have settled down to under 5% difference.
PRIMARY VOTE
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
“MINOR” PARTIES
POLLING SOURCES
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
1:
I get the feeling that the numbers are going to bounce around their current values until something dramatic like #libspill or a budget happens.
PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
Over to you, the discerning reader.
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