Polls older than 14 days have been discarded
This past fortnight saw 7758 people polled
Data as at Tuesday night, 16th September.
Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.
The symbolic red and blue bar is drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
One poll Essential 2/09 was deleted
One Poll, Essential 16/09 was added
Any polls which come out after midnight Sydney/Melbourne time will be included in next week’s charts.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,047,000 Votes
ALP 7,953,000 Votes
Which leads to – – -
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of 906,000 voters.
The swing to the Left continues.
The two biggest minor parties will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The Greens support continues to rise and is now within 0.05% of their highest share of the vote since Poll Sum has been operating (Mid May 14)
PUP has continued to fall and has now reached its lowest level since Poll Sum began. Perhaps Clive has been a little too obvious with his voting pattern.
The swing to the Left is continuing and could be a reflection of the country’s dislike of going back to an unwinnable war. With the terrorist silly season upon us, with increased delays at airports, hospitals being evacuated and rubbish bins being welded shut it is no wonder many voters are skeptical of the need for all this brouhaha. There is, however, a serious side to all this. If we continue to ignore the Government and refuse to be terrorised into pushing the polls “his” way, then we may well see a “false flag” terrorist event or two to pull us all into line. That will not be funny if it happens.
Over to you, the discerning reader.
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