Polls older than 14 days have been discarded
This past fortnight saw 11,041 people polled
Data as at Tuesday night, 2nd September.
Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.
The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
One poll, Essential 19/08 was deleted
One poll, Essential 02/09 was added
Any polls which come out after midnight Sydney/Melbourne time will be included in next week’s charts.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,135,500 Votes
ALP 7,864,500 Votes
Which leads to – – -
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of 729,00 voters.
A minuscule change this week.
The two biggest minor parties will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
The Greens rose back to an exact 10%.
PUP drifted back down.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
This is the “Off” week with only an Essential Poll of just over 1800 responders giving a change of just .01% . So the seats lost and gained remain the same. Next week will show the effect of a warmongering Prime Minister, a compliant Leader of the Opposition and a PUP which has gutted the working man’s superannuation.