Poll Sum; 18th May, 2016


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poll18hredblue

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poll18aMorgan 2/05 and Essential 3/05 were dropped

Morgan 16/05 and Essential 17/05 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll18bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll18c

2PP History

poll18d

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,386,150 Votes

ALP 7,613,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHARTpoll04daA difference of

1.518% or 227,700 voters.

Not a strong position for the Coalition although, while the trend is still towards the left, it seems to be slowing and THAT is a worry.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll18e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll18f

Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Essential asked the “Better PM” question and the response was,  Shorten 28% (+6) Turnbull 43% (-1). A major turn around going on here.

2:

Essential has begun showing the Xenophon Team separately. This week Morgan gave them 5% and Essential 3%.

3:

This trending thing has me worried. It is slowing and could start to swing back. Especially if a vile enough terrorist claim or act can be made or organised by the AFP. Or if Border Force starts claiming the refugees in detention all hate Australia and will murder us in our beds if they are released.

4:

The Greens appear to be losing ground at the moment but should still poll more this election than they did in 2013.

5:

Essential also asked their questions about Social Class. It is interesting.

socclass1socclass2

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

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Sid and Sod #804


sid&sod804

Poll Sum; 11th May 2016


DDpoll1

poll11g

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poll11aEssential 26/04 was dropped

Reachtel 6/05, Galaxy 7/05, Ipsos 8/05, GNewspoll 8/05 and Essential 10/05 were added.

I’m not sure how Galaxy was resurrected. Morgan also did a quick phone poll after the Budget in Reply but it was only single question, under 900 repondents and the only detail given was 51% LNP, 49% ALP. I have ignored it.

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poll11b%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll11cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP History poll11dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,403,850 Votes

ALP 7,596,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHARTpoll04da

 

A difference of

1.282% or 192,300 voters.

Not a very satisfying result but we have had Turnbull at his most reportable with a budget framed to suit Uncle Rupert and the chance to act Prime Ministerial by calling the DD.

In all respects, a very small post-budget bounce.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll11eOnce upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll11fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The first couple of days of a very long campaign have passed. It is too early to judge what will happen although all the pundits are saying the ALP will need a 2pp of 52% to win Government in their own right.

The next game will be to judge just when the Push Polling will begin.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

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Sid and Sod #803


sid&sod803

Clichés


From long ago.

Is it really forty years since I scribbled this?

CLICHES

All I can use are cliches
Overused
Like breakfast dishes
Coloured in Chinese Willow
Beauty debased by familiarity
All the words were used
Long before we met
By others, to whom a muse
granted a ready tongue, yet
For the first time I love you
A new love and no new phrases
All I can use are cliches.

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Keep Calm


Monday

Great Grandma’s Life


From the days when a woman’s worth
was measured by her cooking talents.

great grandma's life 09