Poll Sum; 20th May


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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 13,323 Australians polled.

Three polls, Morgan 3/05, Newspoll 4/05 and Essential 5/05 were deleted

Six polls,  Reachtel 12/05, Galaxy 16/05, Ipsos 18/05, Newspoll 18/05,

Morgan 18/05 and Essential 19/05 were added

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,210,200 Votes

ALP 7,789,800 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

3.864% or

579,600 voters.

A drop of around a quarter of a million voters in a single week!

The effect of hip-pocket budgeting.

Sometimes I wonder if Australia deserves democracy!

The worry for the Left, and for Australia, is that this is third drop since Mid-February, each one a little lower than the previous one and each rise less than the previous fall.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This time, although the Coalition went up, the ALP was nearly static and the sum of the ALP and the Greens went up!

The polls had to raid the “Others” to find extra votes for the Coalition.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Newspoll revealed one of its secrets in its poll this week. How it creates its “Two Party Preferred” number. “Based on preference flows from the last election, where Labor is allocated 80 per cent of Greens votes and 60 per cent of others, the ALP has extended its 13-month lead over the government in two-party-preferred terms to be ahead by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

Other polls, especially Morgan, give that historical number, as well as asking specifically where the respondents’ second preference would go. That number is much more current and believable.

2:

Bob Ellis has a few things to say about the Newspoll and the Oopsies poll (sorry – Ipsos Poll)

http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/05/18/todays-ipsos-and-newspoll-2/

3:

The Ipsos Poll is the first to give parity to the Coalition in around a year. Could this be the first sign of an early election?

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I Have Learned #17


I have learned 17

From a Roman Wall #93


wine_salesman_-_romanLibertinus strode into the Forum Cafeterium bursting with the gossip. He thanked Nellus as she handed him his beaker of steaming caffeinus and went to the tabula where his friends sat.

“Opulentus has sacked Hortulanus, his chief gardener!” he exclaimed.

“Why would he do a silly thing like that?” asked Pedantus. “He has grown the best garden in Rome for Opulentus.”

Libertinus replied, “Apparently Hortulanus was doing a deal with Arboritus the tree supplier. He was buying some new imported trees which were a lot cheaper than the invoices showed and Opulentus found out about it.”

“So the gardener was ripping off his employer. He deserved to be fired.” said Pedantus. “How did he find out?”

“Well,” said Libertinus, “Arboritus was selling palm trees.”

“Ahhh!” exclaimed Verbo Ipsum. “Opulentus thought it was a shady deal.”

 

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Sid and Sod #692


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Street Wisdom


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Lots of Fun


oldjoke15a

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Western Mail, 15.05.1941

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Australian Worker 14/05/1941

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Australian Women’s Weekly 12/05/1945

All via Trove, an ANU Project.

From a Roman Wall #92


romangif4The quiet of the Forum Cafeterium was broken as Zoophilus the explorer and Marti his slave girl entered. They were arguing about a sailor’s tale Marti insisted was true.

“There really is a giant bird which flies over the ocean West of the Indus and drops rocks onto ships.” she said.

Zoophilus explained, “That is just a sailor’s tale. No such bird has ever been seen.”

Nellus the Barristerius handed them their beakers of steaming caffeinus with a smile.

“But my Mother’s Uncle did see it once and luckily it dropped its rock on another vessel!” Marti said. “And what about those big black and white whales that sing in groups.”

“They are real.” interrupted Verbo Ipsum. “My sailors often talk about them.”

“See!” exclaimed Marti. “Sailors tell the truth. My Mother’s Uncle said that at times it sounds as though those whales are accompanying themselves on musical instruments.”

Zoophilus’ face was displaying extreme skepticism.

“Of course they do.” Verbo Ipsum agreed with Marti. “They form an Orca stra.”

 

roman graffiti

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