The past two weeks saw 8542 people polled
Data as at Wednesday night, 28th January.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
Two Polls, Essential 13/01 and Morgan 12/01 were deleted.
Three Polls, Essential 28/01, Morgan 28/01 and Reachtel 28/01 were added
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,840,900 Votes
ALP 8,159,100 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
Back to a difference of 1.3 million voters.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
To me, the drop in the “Others” is a clear case of polarisation as most of those lost votes have gone to the three majors.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
A combined 51%+ number is almost unprecedented!
For this post
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
I fear the next major “reset” will not be by our laughingstock but by his party. Then the polling will also take a reset in sympathy. That will look ugly for sensible people but it won’t last.