POLL SUM; 25th June

POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

46.5 | 53.50

6975000| 8025000

Differential = 1050000

Polls older than 14 days have been discarded

This week 7,734 people were polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 17th June.

Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.

The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.

Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Two polls; Morgan,8th Jun,  Essential, 11th Jun were deleted.

Two polls; Neilsen, 23rd Jun and Essential 24th Jun,

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Two Party Preferred

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6975000 votes

ALP 8025000 votes

Another increase in the vote for the ALP. One we cannot expect to continue forever.

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Budget panic is easing and the MSM continues to push the L-NP

These numbers show that we are back to near pre-budget preferences.

The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP  has begun.

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

 

1:- The Essential Poll may have just shown its penultimate poll for the Age. The PollBludger seems to think it will cease polling after the next set of numbers.

2:-  Just what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.

 

If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP  the Coalition and the Independents will hold 69 seats.  ALP will form a Government with 82 seats, a majority of 14.

This also shows which Coalition members may not be all that happy with the official Cabinet line.

Over to you, the discerning reader.