Poll Sum; 13th July 2016

DDpoll1

My summary of the results of the
Turnbull Double Dissolution Election so far.

redblue

NOTE1:- Numbers are at close of Counting, 12th July, 2016 from the AEC Website

NOTE2:- The dates are set at the first day of each election year so that the charts look right. I wish I was an an expert in Excel.

While the numbers for this election are not yet complete, they are getting close. These charts will be updated should there be a major change.

While the ALP and the Greens numbers are as shown in the AEC lists as individual parties, there is no number given for the LNP. I have combined the Liberal Party, Liberal National Party, The National Party and the Country Liberals (NT) into a single figure.

Remember the proud Abbott boast that the Liberals would never form a coalition?

1:

Senator Brandis has been out on the publicity tour spouting the falsehood that the ALP vote is the lowest since 1930. My numbers only go back to the turn of the current century but here they are.

poll13a

It can easily be seen that not only is the ALP vote NOT the lowest for this century (and by extension not since 1930) but that the LNP vote IS the lowest this century!

Does this mean that Senator Brandis was telling lies?

YES!

2:

The Greens have stagnated a bit since Bob Brown has left the Parliament.

poll13b

The Greens have a strange habit of polling very well between elections but they drop back at election time.

3:

The vote for ‘Others’ is at a near high for this century. The Hanson and Xenophon effects have boosted it this election.

poll13d

One voter in eight voted ‘Other’. Not the highest ever but very close. A sign that neither major party is truly popular at the moment.

4:

One part of the poll tends to remain the same. The Informals.

poll13e

Bouncing between 4%and 6% they are the most reliable part of the electorate.

5:

There has been just a single ‘Voting Intention’ poll since election day and that was an Essential which came out Tuesday 5th July. It showed a 50-50 split.

6:

How accurate is Poll Sum?

Any polling system is only as good as its exam results show. Polling exams are the actual elections.

As of this morning the AEC is reporting a Two Party Preferred of L-NP 50.28%, ALP 49.72%

In the Poll Sum immediately prior to the election the Two Party Preferred was L-NP 50.11%  ALP 49.89%

I think I passed  🙂

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