Poll Sum; 29th June 2016

DDpoll1

poll29h

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Reachtel 9/06, and Essential 15/06 were deleted.

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Reachtel 23/06, Galaxy 26/06 Newspoll 26/06, Essential 28/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll29bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History

poll29dTranslating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,516,650 Votes

ALP 7,483,350 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll29daA difference of

0.222% or 33,300 voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

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Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

This week’s Essential Poll has the Coalition on a Primary vote of 39%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll29fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

The Morgan Poll seems to be overdue. From January it has been published each month until the election was called. Then it went into a fortnightly cycle but there has been no Morgan since 30th May! If there is no Morgan before the election, the average punter must begin to wonder why.

Not that Morgan have not been polling. In the past fortnight they have released results from a number of individual seats.

Last seen, Morgan had a 2pp 51% to the ALP. Are they trying to hide the fact that their polling is showing a really bad outcome for the Coalition?

 

2:

Yes, the L-NP is now leading by a minuscule number of voters. This could be because there is no Morgan poll to balance the push polling of Galaxy and Newspoll.

3:

I expect more polls between now and the end of Friday. Then there will be the reset of the actual vote in the election. There may be another Poll Sum om Friday night if there are new polls. and it is quite possible there will be none next Wednesday.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

3 responses to “Poll Sum; 29th June 2016

  1. Just read abt Oakshott may take seat from Hartsukyer. Thats a swing of 13%. It’s those individual seats that will make Saturday very interesting

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    Poll Sum a few days from the election, by the always wonderful Archie.

    Liked by 1 person

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