Poll Sum; 29th June 2016

Reachtel 9/06, and Essential 15/06 were deleted.

Reachtel 23/06, Galaxy 26/06 Newspoll 26/06, Essential 28/06 were added

%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Two Party Preferred

2PP History

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,516,650 Votes

ALP 7,483,350 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

0.222% or 33,300 voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

This week’s Essential Poll has the Coalition on a Primary vote of 39%

“MINOR” PARTIES

Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

POLLING SOURCES

points for discussion.

1:

The Morgan Poll seems to be overdue. From January it has been published each month until the election was called. Then it went into a fortnightly cycle but there has been no Morgan since 30th May! If there is no Morgan before the election, the average punter must begin to wonder why.

Not that Morgan have not been polling. In the past fortnight they have released results from a number of individual seats.

Last seen, Morgan had a 2pp 51% to the ALP. Are they trying to hide the fact that their polling is showing a really bad outcome for the Coalition?

 

2:

Yes, the L-NP is now leading by a minuscule number of voters. This could be because there is no Morgan poll to balance the push polling of Galaxy and Newspoll.

3:

I expect more polls between now and the end of Friday. Then there will be the reset of the actual vote in the election. There may be another Poll Sum om Friday night if there are new polls. and it is quite possible there will be none next Wednesday.

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.