Australia Votes; What Does The Polling Mean?

The polls have been examined, dissected and decried since Malcolm Turnbull called this election.

But what does it all mean? Hung Parliament, Liberal Government or a fluked ALP win?

In 2013 the ALP won 46.5% of the Two Party Preferred vote and won 57 of 150 seats. They need to win 75 seats for a hung house this time which means a pick-up of 18 seats.

The Essential poll this week showed the ALP to have 51% of the Two Party Preferred. This is a change of 4.5% so that is how far the line moves.

Assuming this all spreads across all seats evenly (hint – it won’t) here is the result and the list of L-NP people who will be unemployed on Sunday 3rd of July.

HoRnumbers

Simplistic and ignoring the ‘marginal’ seats but some will go one way, some the other. If the margin of error is ignored and the marginal factor is ignored, this is the best guess some ten days out.

I’m assuming two NXT seats, two Green seats and with Windsor missing out. I hope I’m wrong about Windsor.

L-NP 70 Seats (Libs + NP + NXT + KAT coalition)

ALP  80 Seats (ALP + Greens + Wilkie Coalition)

 

7 responses to “Australia Votes; What Does The Polling Mean?

  1. Interesting. Did you see the ReachTels out today on 4 marginals in NSW? Different figures to yours. PS I’d quite like a ALP + Greens + Wilkie coalition.

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    • I have been looking at the marginals but for this exercise I ignored them and just went with gross numbers. Those marginals are a worry but there must be some L-NP marginals which may fall on the left of the line. I hope 🙂

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  2. Thanks for putting that together Archie.
    I think there will be some big surprise swings in QLD and WA to Labor. I think Labor may lose a seat in SA though but Libs may lose 2-3 to NXT.

    I’m not sure if Greens will get a seat. I am still undecided. There is a possibility that Bandt may not retain, as he won on Lib preferences last time and Libs are not preferencing him this time. It depends on how strong his Primary is (I expect it would be strong) and if Lib voters follow the HTV card or not. Labor has a very good candidate in that seat as well. It doesn’t look good for Feeney, but the same with preferences, as per above. I think the Greens will fire a rocket up some National members in seats where CSG and water contamination are issues, which could deplete the National vote, but not sure if enough to win.

    I predict 78 – 82 seats for Labor, a majority win, until I do a bit more analysis. I do admit I am getting nervous, particularly after waking up this morning and the media who had been reporting on changes to Medicare for so long and challenging the Govt on it, all basically told us today they just had been dabbling in a bit of fiction and it is all just a lie. The ABC is a lost cause. I may as well watch PM Live.

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  3. I pray to The Gourd that he will tear the marrow from the Lieberal unbelievers and cast them into the pit of their own effluent!

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    • I have made offerings all along the Street of Small Gods and with any luck, the Reachtel polling in those few marginals which were reported will prove to be a reflection of the nation’s thinking. Just what would a 46%2PP do to the TC (Turnbull Coalition)?

      Liked by 1 person

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