The polls have been examined, dissected and decried since Malcolm Turnbull called this election.
But what does it all mean? Hung Parliament, Liberal Government or a fluked ALP win?
In 2013 the ALP won 46.5% of the Two Party Preferred vote and won 57 of 150 seats. They need to win 75 seats for a hung house this time which means a pick-up of 18 seats.
The Essential poll this week showed the ALP to have 51% of the Two Party Preferred. This is a change of 4.5% so that is how far the line moves.
Assuming this all spreads across all seats evenly (hint – it won’t) here is the result and the list of L-NP people who will be unemployed on Sunday 3rd of July.
Simplistic and ignoring the ‘marginal’ seats but some will go one way, some the other. If the margin of error is ignored and the marginal factor is ignored, this is the best guess some ten days out.
I’m assuming two NXT seats, two Green seats and with Windsor missing out. I hope I’m wrong about Windsor.
L-NP 70 Seats (Libs + NP + NXT + KAT coalition)
ALP 80 Seats (ALP + Greens + Wilkie Coalition)