Poll Sum; 22nd June, 2016

DDpoll1

poll22h

 

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Reachtel 3/06, Ipsos 3/06, Newspoll 5/06 and Essential 7/06 were deleted.

poll22a

Ipsos 17/06, Reachtel 17/06, Newspoll 19/06, Essential 21/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll22b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History

poll22dTranslating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,468,200 Votes

ALP 7,531,800 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll22daA difference of

0.424% or 63,600 voters.

Another increase of voters for the Right. This time of some 15,000 voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll22e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll22fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

This is normally the time when pollsters make very sure their published numbers are accurate. Election day is like an exam for them. Being the closest to the result is a major boasting point for each of them. And a way to increase their charges to customers.

So either the people of Australia really are split 50-50 or there is big money in saying so.  To me it is looking more and more like Kim Beasley country.  The Left will win the popular vote while the Right will hold Government.

Yes, I’m feeling pessimistic today.

2:

The bounce to the left does not appear to have been strong enough. It seems to have stalled just short of a winning position and is now drifting slowly back to the right.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

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