Poll Sum; 8th June, 2016

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Reachtel 20/05, Ipsos 20/05, Newspoll 22/05 and Essential 24/05 were deleted.

poll08aReachtel 3/06, Ipsos 3/06, Newspoll 5/06 and Essential 7/06 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

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Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,419,000 Votes

ALP 7,581,000 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

1.080% or 162,000 voters.

An increase of 121,200 voters for the Right this week. Not that I can think of anything, other than a misty-eyed Malcolm Turnbull, which could have had that much effect.

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PRIMARY VOTE

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Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll08fEssential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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points for discussion.

1:

Nothing to think about this week. The numbers have reached the doldrums and that mythical British forecast is applicable. ‘Winds errr – Numbers light to variable.’

They will remain like this for another two weeks then, as we enter the final straight, there will be a completely unsubtle terrorist threat from which only a Coalition-led ASIO can save us. In a totally non-political way of course.

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

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