Reachtel 20/05, Ipsos 20/05, Newspoll 22/05 and Essential 24/05 were deleted.
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,419,000 Votes
ALP 7,581,000 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
1.080% or 162,000 voters.
An increase of 121,200 voters for the Right this week. Not that I can think of anything, other than a misty-eyed Malcolm Turnbull, which could have had that much effect.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?
Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.
points for discussion.
Nothing to think about this week. The numbers have reached the doldrums and that mythical British forecast is applicable. ‘
Winds errr – Numbers light to variable.’
They will remain like this for another two weeks then, as we enter the final straight, there will be a completely unsubtle terrorist threat from which only a Coalition-led ASIO can save us. In a totally non-political way of course.
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Over to you, the discerning reader.