Morgan 16/05 and Essential 18/05 were dropped
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,358,400 Votes
ALP 7,641,600 Votes
Which leads to – – –
A difference of
1.888% or 283,200 voters.
An increase of about 30,000 voters for the Left for the second week in a row.
The electorate is still in ‘Kim Beazley territory’. In the 1998 election he led the ALP to a majority of the popular vote but not to Government.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?
Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.
points for discussion.
Things are looking very strange in South Australia. The experts say the NXT could win three lower house seats with Christopher Pyne one of the likely losses. Currently the Libs hold six of the eleven seats on offer and it could be that all three earmarked for NXT are currently Liberal seats. Since Nick X is an ex-Lib all that will happen is that the pragmatic Malcolm will agree to some minimal gambling changes and he will lock in the NXT vote. Effectively, there is likely to be little change in the HoR in South Australia.
Can you image what would happen in Queensland if Bob Katter was seen as sane by most of the people north of the Tweed.
None of the polls this week were taken after the Leaders’ debate on Sunday night.
PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
Over to you, the discerning reader.