Poll Sum; 1st June 2016

DDpoll1

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Morgan 16/05 and Essential 18/05 were dropped

poll01aReachtel 27/05, Morgan 30/05 and Essential 31/05 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numberspoll01bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,358,400 Votes

ALP 7,641,600 Votes

Which leads to – – –

poll01daTHE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

1.888% or 283,200 voters.

An increase of about 30,000 voters for the Left for the second week in a row.

The electorate is still in ‘Kim Beazley territory’. In the 1998 election he led the ALP to a majority of the popular vote but not to Government.

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PRIMARY VOTE

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Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

The question is rapidly becoming, ‘Can the Coalition win with a Primary number beginning with ‘3’?

“MINOR” PARTIES

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Essential, Ipsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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 points for discussion.

1:

Things are looking very strange in South Australia. The experts say the NXT could win three lower house seats with Christopher Pyne one of the likely losses. Currently the Libs hold six of the eleven seats on offer and it could be that all three earmarked for NXT are currently Liberal seats. Since Nick X is an ex-Lib all that will happen is that the pragmatic Malcolm will agree to some minimal gambling changes and he will lock in the NXT vote. Effectively, there is likely to be little change in the HoR in South Australia.

Can you image what would happen in Queensland if Bob Katter was seen as sane by most of the people north of the Tweed.

2:

None of the polls this week were taken after the Leaders’ debate on Sunday night.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

3 responses to “Poll Sum; 1st June 2016

  1. Quite amazing NXT rules that only Nic can talk. The voters won’t know what they are getting. Will we have a Pup breakup. Still be good to see Pyne gone

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I am always worried by personality parties. Are all his candidates good Liberal men?

    Like

  3. In a hypothetical the NXT vote gets up and it is up to them to form a hung parliament. It will be 3 more years of Liberals – possibly 4 if they change the terms which of Govt during Turnbull’s term. X is an ex-Lib. Medicare will be completely abolished and health privatised. People will die. Sue – I like Christopher Pyne. He is probably the only Liberal I like. My prediction is Labor will win with 56% 2pp by the election. The battle will be won in the last 3 weeks and Turnbull’s camp simply is not ready and they have not done the groundwork. Labor hasn’t even fully turned it up yet.

    Liked by 1 person

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