Poll Sum; 11th May 2016

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poll11g

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poll11aEssential 26/04 was dropped

Reachtel 6/05, Galaxy 7/05, Ipsos 8/05, GNewspoll 8/05 and Essential 10/05 were added.

I’m not sure how Galaxy was resurrected. Morgan also did a quick phone poll after the Budget in Reply but it was only single question, under 900 repondents and the only detail given was 51% LNP, 49% ALP. I have ignored it.

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poll11b%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll11cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP History poll11dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,403,850 Votes

ALP 7,596,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHARTpoll04da

 

A difference of

1.282% or 192,300 voters.

Not a very satisfying result but we have had Turnbull at his most reportable with a budget framed to suit Uncle Rupert and the chance to act Prime Ministerial by calling the DD.

In all respects, a very small post-budget bounce.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll11eOnce upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll11fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The first couple of days of a very long campaign have passed. It is too early to judge what will happen although all the pundits are saying the ALP will need a 2pp of 52% to win Government in their own right.

The next game will be to judge just when the Push Polling will begin.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 11th May 2016

  1. Archie, Your a Champion. Thanks for taking the time to do these Poll sums which are very interesting and enlightening.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Let’s make it more than 52% as our motto!
    I know that the asylum seeker issue is a big sticking point for a lot of people, but after listening to Bill Shorten yesterday when the press tried to get him & the local ALP member in a ‘gotcha’ moment, I have a much better understanding of just what it is that they are trying to do. They want to make sure that the people smugglers are taken out of the picture – period!
    Okay, that is well and good because it saves lives. Now they need to make sure that they give more support to the UNHCR in the places where refugees are being held so that those who are seeking asylum get processed as quickly as possible. Bill Shorten also mentioned that this is something that they want to see that happen.
    It will be up to us as the good citizens to make sure that this happens.
    I know that it seems a long time lead up to the election, but it will also give us all a little more time to really digest and wade through the spin & lies that pollies love to hit us with before an election.
    I wonder what others think.

    Like

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