Poll Sum; 4th May, 2016

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poll04h

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poll04a

Reachtel 15/04, Ipsos 17/04, GNewspoll 17/04 Morgan 18/04 Essential 19/04 were dropped

Morgan 2/05 and Essential 3/05 were added

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poll04b%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll04cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll04dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,268,700 Votes

ALP 7,731,300 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll04da

A difference of

3.084% or 462,600 voters.

The trend continues.

Consider where the numbers were three months ago!

Next week we will be inundated with post-budget polls.

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PRIMARY VOTE

poll04eOnce upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll04fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I think you just need to look at the acceleration of the trend to realise just how much help Turnbull is going to need from Uncle Rupert. Which raises the question, “Does Uncle Rupert like and trust Malcolm”

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

 

 

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