Poll Sum; 27th April, 2016

DDpoll1

poll27h

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poll27aEssential 12/04 was dropped

Essential 27/04 was added

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%ages changed to Raw Numberspoll27b

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Two Party Preferred

poll27cRemarkable agreement amongst all pollsters this week.

2PP Historypoll27dYes! A change in the poll leader.

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,436,250 Votes

ALP 7,563,750 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll27da

A difference of

0.85% or 127,500 voters.

The trend continues.

Consider where the numbers were three months ago!

Next week we will be inundated with post-budget polls.

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PRIMARY VOTEpoll27e

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This shows the L_NP to be down 3.5% from the 2013 election, the ALP up by 2.5% and the Greens up by 3.5%

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll27fIpsos and Morgan are now both showing numbers for NXT so I have added it. At the moment, for charting purposes, I am giving NXT 4% if a poll doesn’t include it and removing 4% from “Others”.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

While those who have been following Poll Sum and Poll Bludger will have noticed the trend back to the Left, many voters have not. Their background impression of the political landscape has yet to catch up with reality. Here is what the Essential Poll of today found about the electorate’s opinion of the likely winner on July 2nd.

poll27plus

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 27th April, 2016

  1. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    A trend to the left. The usual impressive analysis by Archie’s Archive.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. So will they poll this weekend + next pre & post budget
    This week Turnbull wld be expecting the high from Subs but is his neg gear getting more media.
    Then it will be his budget delivered by ScoMo v Shorten reply, wh includes Labors already delivered policies

    Liked by 1 person

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