Poll Sum; 13th April, 2016

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poll13h

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poll13aEssential, 30/03 was dropped

Essential 12/04 was added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll13bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

PUP has been polling so low that it has been dropped.

As soon as more than just Morgan begin polling KAT and NXT then I can include their apparent 0.5% and 4.5% respectively. NXT is showing 22% in SA.

As it is, the eponymous parties are boosting “Others”.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History
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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,609,800 Votes

ALP 7,390,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

-1.464 % or 219,600 voters.

Almost exactly the same as last week.

I will be surprised if it is the same next week. I’m expecting an Ipsos poll on Thursday, a Gnewspoll on Sunday or Monday night and a Morgan next Monday.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll13e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll13fAt the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos and Morgan recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. According to Morgan, the NXP lost around 1% this week. Down to 4% Nationwide.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With Essential being the only poll out this past seven days, I will give a little space to comparisons of the two leaders. These questions were last asked a month ago so that is the time scale for the changes.

Popularity

Turnbull 39% (-6) for, 39% (+4) against

Shorten 30% (+3) For, 44% (-3) against

Best PM –

 Turnbull 44% (-4)

Shorten 22% (+3)

Undecided 35% (+1)

2:

This is the seventh poll in a row from Essential showing a 50-50 result.

The last time there was a difference was Feb 23rd when it was 52% to the Coalition.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

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