Poll Sum; 6th April, 2016

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GNewspoll 20/03, Morgan 21/03 and Essential, 22/03 were dropped

Morgan 04/04, GNewspoll 04/04 and Essential 05/04 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.poll06b

PUP has been polling so low that it has been dropped.

As soon as more than just Morgan begin polling KAT and NXT then I can include their apparent 0.5% and 4.5% respectively. NXT is showing 22% in SA.

As it is, the eponymous parties are boosting “Others”.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History
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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,609,950 Votes

ALP 7,390,050 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

-1.466 % or 219,900 voters.

Another small swing of about 40,000 back right.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll06e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll06fAt the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos and Morgan recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. According to Morgan, the NXP lost around 1% this week. Down to 4% Nationwide.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The major influence on the numbers this week is the Morgan Poll. I thought it may be an interesting exercise to quote Gary Morgan’s own words so you can decide just where they intersect with the reality of the past fortnight. The bolding of some phrases is my own comment; Æ.

Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP 52.5% (up 3%) back in front of the ALP 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis after Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull showed leadership which had been lacking for some time.

“Turnbull ‘pro-rogued’ the Australian Parliament, including a reluctant Senate, to come back and sit for three weeks from mid-April to debate, and pass, the Government’s contentious legislation to reintroduce the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) – the first time the Australian Parliament has been ‘pro-rogued’ for nearly 40 years, since 1977. (Note – At the conclusion of the 40th Parliament Prime Minister Howard indicated that the timing of the prorogation and dissolution (announced on 29 August for 31 August) was to allow the Senate to sit in the intervening period.)

“Turnbull’s recall of Parliament to debate the legislation carries the explicit threat that if not passed in the three weeks from Monday April 18 he will call a Double Dissolution Federal Election for Saturday July 2 – the first since 1987. Minor party Senate cross-benchers can now decide whether Australia faces an early Double Dissolution Federal Election in July or the Federal Election is later in the year.

“The move by Turnbull came after weeks of back-and-forth arguments about various types of taxation reform – including increasing the GST which failed to ‘inspire’ the Australian electorate – now abandoned by the Turnbull Government in the name of ‘political expediency’.

“By bringing a halt (about two weeks ago) to what seemed like policy ‘drift’ Turnbull has re-established the Federal Government as ‘better managers’ by explicitly linking economic management to union corruption in the building and construction industry.

“This week’s Morgan Poll lift in L-NP support (now L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%) shows this message connects strongly to the policies the Turnbull Government will fight the Federal Election.

The Federal Opposition has stated they will campaign at the Federal Election on increasing Federal funding including Health and Education (both State issues) from raising significant revenue from elimination of taxation minimisation. Last weekend Turnbull ‘cleverly’ outmanoeuvred the States and Federal Opposition by neutralising health and education funding by offering State Premiers the right to raise their own State income tax – good policy but political suicide!

”In these difficult times, the only real solution is to cut Local, State and Federal Government spending.”

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

 

 

3 responses to “Poll Sum; 6th April, 2016

  1. I listened to a woman defending the Morgan Poll on ABC and nothing she said added up. The Morgan rep did try to insist that the majority of the polling was done after COAG, but I find that highly doubtful in comparison to Newspoll. COAG was where Turnbull really shone through as being incompetent. The interviewer even pointed out that the Morgan poll doesn’t seem to reflect the mood or similar nor the Newspoll. The Morgan Rep just went on to say that the Newspoll is Newspoll in name only and basically we can’t trust it (or similar words). The Morgan poll is not reflecting the voices of the left on social media, nor the right on social media. Frankly, I can’t understand who they polled to get such a difference.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. So is,Morgan poll a false positive for Turnbull govt, Give a positive to recall of parlt, so DD can happen & voters can kick govt out on 2_July

    Like

  3. I am so jealous that you are in TX!!! I really miss that place. I hope that you are loving it. I got to play on the beaches of the Gulf one too . . Click http://d2.ae/hool090645

    Like

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