Poll Sum; 30th March 2016

POLL SUMMARY

Ipsos 12/03 and Essential 15/03 were dropped

Reachtel 22/03 and Essential 30/03 were added

%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

2PP History

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,590,450 Votes

ALP 7,409,550 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

-1.206 % or 180,900 voters.

A small swing of about 36,000 back right.

PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

“MINOR” PARTIES

At the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos and Morgan recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. According to Morgan, the NXP lost around 1% this week. Down to 4% Nationwide.

POLLING SOURCES

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With a budget which will be either very unpopular or very silly, Malcolm has got his hands full holding on to a pretence of leadership.

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

EXCEPTING EASTER GOT IN THE WAY THIS WEEK

AND SO ESSENTIAL WAS LATE.

SO I AM LATE AS WELL

Over to you, the discerning reader.