Poll Sum; 30th March 2016

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POLL SUMMARY

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Ipsos 12/03 and Essential 15/03 were dropped

Reachtel 22/03 and Essential 30/03 were added

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.poll02b

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History
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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,590,450 Votes

ALP 7,409,550 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll16daA difference of

-1.206 % or 180,900 voters.

A small swing of about 36,000 back right.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll30e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll30fAt the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos and Morgan recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. According to Morgan, the NXP lost around 1% this week. Down to 4% Nationwide.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With a budget which will be either very unpopular or very silly, Malcolm has got his hands full holding on to a pretence of leadership.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

EXCEPTING EASTER GOT IN THE WAY THIS WEEK

AND SO ESSENTIAL WAS LATE.

SO I AM LATE AS WELL

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

4 responses to “Poll Sum; 30th March 2016

  1. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    This week’s poll sum by the always wonderful Archie.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. So people had a sugar hit and decided a lieberal vote was better, well, a few thousand did. Why doesnt the ALP get traction in the media? One word… Murdoch.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. The states tax scheme is out of the bag seems it wont be fair for lots of states..will have to check back next time I believe that will cause a left swing!

    Like

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