Poll Sum; 23rd March, 2016

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POLL SUMMARY

poll23h

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poll23aMorgan 7/03, GNewspoll 7/03, Essential 8/03 were dropped

GNewspoll 20/03, Morgan 21/03 and Essential 22/03 were added.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.poll23b

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

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Two Party Preferred

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2PP History
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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,572,300 Votes

ALP 7,427,700 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll23daA difference of

-0.964 % or 144,600 voters.

Around a quarter of a million swinging back to the Left.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll23e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll16fAt the moment only Morgan is separating the Xenophon Vanity Party out from “Others” and with Ipsos and Morgan recording PUP as a “zero” this poll, the NXP rally needs a spot of its own. Once another Poll lists NXP by itself, I can give it a column. According to Morgan, the NXP lost around 1% this week. Down to 4% Nationwide.

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The trend is definitely back to the left.

Morgan’s 0.5% to the ALP was the logical next step. GNewspoll with its slight swing back to Malcolm was predictable but well inside the MoE. Essential continues to show an even split.

Which sort of messes up the cliché that PM’s only call elections they know they can win.

2:

We have an election being dragged naked and gibbering over the political horizon into the full view of the electorate. It will be interesting to work out which polls are “Push-polling” and which are staying honest with their readers.

3:

How long before this Election is named the ABCCDD? I’m not sure if I’m thunderstruck or if we are on a highway to Hell.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 23rd March, 2016

  1. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    Poll Sum 23rd March, by the always wonderful Archie. Its looking up!

    Liked by 1 person

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