Poll Sum 9th March, 2016

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POLL SUMMARY

poll09h

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poll09aGNewspoll 21/02, Morgan 22/02 and Essential 23/02 were dropped

Morgan 07.03, GNewspoll 07/03 and Essential 08/03/were added.

A total of 8,339 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll09bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

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Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,662,450 Votes

ALP 7,337,550 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll09daA difference of

-2.166% or 324900 voters.

Another swing left, virtually halving the difference between the Governmant anf the Opposition. This time around 150,000 voters changed their minds.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll09e

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll09f

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The swing away from honeymoon numbers seems to be confirmed with only Morgan suggesting that the L-NP still has a lead. If things continue as they seem to be going, we can expect the first ALP lead in a poll next week or perhaps the week after. That will create  a lot of pressure for an abbott recall.

It will certainly mess up Turnbull’s plans for a DD straight after the budget. Unless it is a totally irresponsible budget, there will be some pain and so a loss of even more votes.

It is becoming harder to see this first term Government winning a second term.

2:

Complicated stuff.

While two Essential and one Newspoll have shown 50/50 results, Morgan still shows a good lead to the L-NP.  Morgan also shows PUP, KAT and NXT numbers. The PUP numbers are showing a small increase to 1%, possible a bit of the “Aussie Underdog” thing. KAT has also increased on Morgan numbers and is now showing 2%. However, the truly interesting number is NXT. While the 16% in South Australia continues, Morgan has, in the past shown 1% Australia-wide yet this week the numbers, as given, show NXT at 5% Australia-wide. While unbelievable, by adding all the little numbers together, except for PUP, there is a huge 15% “Others”.

Make of that what you will.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

One response to “Poll Sum 9th March, 2016

  1. The key is where NXT and Greens prefs end up. Also, should NXT or Greens come second, could be interesting in some seats.

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