Poll Sum; 2nd March, 2016

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POLL SUMMARYpoll02h

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poll02aReachtel 12/02, Ipsos 14/02 and Essential, 16/02 were dropped

Essential 1/03/was  added.

A total of 7676 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll02bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

poll02c

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Two Party Preferred

poll02d

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,691,400 Votes

ALP 7,308,600 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll02daA difference of

-3.002% or 382,800 voters.

Another swing left, virtually halving the difference between the Governmant anf the Opposition. This time around 150,000 voters changed their minds.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll02e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll02f

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The electoral polling was not all that was done by Essential this week.

From Pollbludger (William Bowe) in the Crikey blog. “Also featured is a very detailed question on Senate reform, in which the legislation was explained to respondents in meticulous detail, producing a result of 53% approval and 16% disapproval. A question on election timing finds 56% wanting the election held later this year versus 23% who want it called early

2:

It is interesting how the number of polls published has fallen in line with the fall in the popularity of this Government.

Also of interest has been the lack of reaction from the MSM to today’s Essential poll. Possibly our electoral pundits are waiting on instructions of how to spin it. They will definitely not be told to say that Bill Shorten’s strategy is actually working. Probably we shall wake in the morning to some guff about how popular tiny abbott has become and how he will lead the Coalition to an unbelievable victory.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

One response to “Poll Sum; 2nd March, 2016

  1. The Morgan poll of 29.8 for primary for Labor seems way off of the other three polls.

    Like

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