Poll Sum; 24th February, 2016

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 POLL SUMMARY

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poll24aEssential 9/02 and Morgan 9/02 were dropped

GNewspoll 21/02, Morgan 22/02, and  Essential 23/02 were added.

A total of 11,274 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll24bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

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Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,837,800 Votes

ALP 7,162,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll24daA difference of

-4.504% or 675,600 voters.

Another swing left, this time around 30,000 voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll24e

“MINOR” PARTIES

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I suggested last week that the numbers would bounce around until a DD was called or a budget handed down. Instead we had a GST increase ruled out and in the confusion, GNewspoll provided a 50/50 2pp. A pity the other polls didn’t go the same way. Morgan stayed where is was and Essential drifted back to 53/48.

I wonder how much of the GNewspoll was driven by Murdoch wanting his pet rabbott back in charge.  I guess we will find out nearer to Easter.

2:

I wonder if the Greens and Nick X recognise the trap they have fallen into. By siding with the Coalition in changing Senate voting, they are looking for a short term benefit. In the longer term, we will lose the vibrancy of newer parties. There will be no one able to challenge the current majors. The Libs, ALP, the Greens, the dying Nats and the still one-manned Xenophon Party. This is a very bad move for what remains of democracy in Australia.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 24th February, 2016

  1. Excellent piece of work. So many people are confused with what the government is throwing at us.
    The same tactics they always use when they are concerned.

    Cause a big distraction and slip past the gate when nobody is watching.

    Liked by 1 person

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