Poll Sum; 10th February, 2016

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POLL SUMMARY

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poll10aReachtel 24/01 and Morgan 25/01 were dropped

Essential 02/02, Essential 09/02 and Morgan 09/02 were added. (Essential 09/02 has not given a number polled so 1800 have been used.)

A total of 10,303 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll10bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

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Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,799,550 Votes

ALP 7,203,450 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference ofpoll27da

-3.967% or 596,100 voters.

A swing of over 4% which brings the Left well over half a million closer this week. A major swing which could see a panic DD!

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll10e

“MINOR” PARTIES

poll10fOther minor parties, KAT and TXP are showing 1% or less (Yes, I know Xenophon has 15% in SA but Nationally he has 1%! So they account for around 2% of the “Others” 9.77%

Oh, And how bad is Palmer going? Out of over 10,000 people polled, he got the nod from 88 – – –

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With a swing this sudden and this big there will be some who are counselling MT to go the DD route asap! The problem is that if the swing continues at this rate (unlikely) the horse will have bolted long before the election and the ALP/Greens coalition could well be clearly in front on election day.

2:

The other way to look at the Morgan poll is that it is drumming up support for tony abbott’s Easter run for re-instatement.I am tipping that the discussion will grow and by the middle of March, the polls will be showing the Turnbull experiment to have been an electoral failure and the way will be clear and credible for an abbott return.

Will that be good for the country?

Will that be good for the Left?

Or is it a case of individual ambition over electoral commonsense?

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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