Poll Sum; 3rd February, 2016

pollpic

POLL SUMMARY

poll3h

redblue

header2

poll3aWhat you see is what you get. Just the three polls to show this past 14 days.

Essential have not yet moved back into the great system they had last year.

A total of 9,983 voters were polled.

redblue

%ages changed to Raw Numbers

poll3bSimple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.poll3c

redblue

Two Party Preferred

poll3d

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
poll3da we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 8,114,400 Votes

ALP 6,885,600 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference ofpoll27da

-8.192% or 1,228,800 voters.

A hundred thousand closer this week. A long way to go but it is a start.

redblue

PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll3e

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll3f

redblue

POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The main talking point this week will be the likelihood of Tonybull choosing the Double Dissolution route. This may give him the satisfaction of getting rid of some senators he dislikes but in return it will gift him a completely unmanageable, independent-filled,  Senate for three years.

To avoid this the proposed changes to Senate elections will need to be made before the DD. Should those proposals be fast-tracked we will have an early indication that it is on the cards. With no rushed movement in that direction we can conclude that this is just Malbott trying to be a bully.

redblue

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s