POLL SUMMARY
What you see is what you get. Just the three polls to show this past 14 days.
Essential have not yet moved back into the great system they had last year.
A total of 9,983 voters were polled.
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 8,114,400 Votes
ALP 6,885,600 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
-8.192% or 1,228,800 voters.
A hundred thousand closer this week. A long way to go but it is a start.
PRIMARY VOTE
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
That was back when the Greens were just beginning!
“MINOR” PARTIES
POLLING SOURCES
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
1:
The main talking point this week will be the likelihood of Tonybull choosing the Double Dissolution route. This may give him the satisfaction of getting rid of some senators he dislikes but in return it will gift him a completely unmanageable, independent-filled, Senate for three years.
To avoid this the proposed changes to Senate elections will need to be made before the DD. Should those proposals be fast-tracked we will have an early indication that it is on the cards. With no rushed movement in that direction we can conclude that this is just Malbott trying to be a bully.
PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
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