Poll Sum; 27th January 2016

pollpicPOLL SUMMARY

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What you see is what you get. Just the three polls to show this past 14 days.

There was an earlier Morgan, back on the 11th Jan which showed 56-44% 2PP.

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

A total of 7464 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.poll27b

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.poll27c

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Two Party Preferred

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred ofpoll27d

L-NP 8,161,500 Votes

ALP 6,838,500 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference ofpoll27da

-8.82% or 1,323,000 voters.

Not a good place to begin but it could be that is is the low point for the year.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.poll27e

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

“MINOR” PARTIESpoll27f

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POLLING SOURCES

ipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Other than PUP the other eponymous parties are being ignored by all polls except for Morgan who have shown NXT at 2% Australia-wide (22.5% in SA) and KAT at 2%.

Lambie, Family First, DLP and all other minors are not rated by any National Poll.

This indicates that the pollsters “Others”, including PUP, are at 11.45% but by including NXT and KAT numbers we have just 6.6% who are either true “Others” or the mythical “Undecided”

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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