What you see is what you get. Just the three polls to show this past 14 days.
There was an earlier Morgan, back on the 11th Jan which showed 56-44% 2PP.
(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)
A total of 7464 voters were polled.
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 8,161,500 Votes
ALP 6,838,500 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
-8.82% or 1,323,000 voters.
Not a good place to begin but it could be that is is the low point for the year.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
That was back when the Greens were just beginning!
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
Other than PUP the other eponymous parties are being ignored by all polls except for Morgan who have shown NXT at 2% Australia-wide (22.5% in SA) and KAT at 2%.
Lambie, Family First, DLP and all other minors are not rated by any National Poll.
This indicates that the pollsters “Others”, including PUP, are at 11.45% but by including NXT and KAT numbers we have just 6.6% who are either true “Others” or the mythical “Undecided”
PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING