Poll Sum; 16th December, 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

poll16h
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poll16aTwo polls, Ipsos 29/11, and Morgan 30/11 were deleted.

Two polls Morgan 13/12 and Essential 15/12 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

A total of 8,301 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll16bNote:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferredpoll16c redblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

  • poll02d

L-NP 8,111,850 Votes

ALP 6,888,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

-8.158% or poll09da1,223,700 voters.

Another slight swing back to the left of around 20,000 votes but nothing dramatic.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!poll16eMINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.poll16fWhenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll16g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Two very carefully timed polls to end the year. Just ahead of a MYEFO announcement which finally admits a $26 Billion blow-out. Now we, the gullible electorate have a couple of months to get over that shock and we will be schooled by the compliant media to forget just what the Coalition spent several years trumpeting when Wayne Swan was sandbagged by world economic conditions.

His Royal Smugness will tell us in comforting tones that everything is fine and there is no need to panic. After all, there is no GFC now. Just the pesky lack of an Australian manufacturing industry which was destroyed by his predecessor. Can anyone remember his name?

2:

The Morgan Poll leads to a question about just who in the Morgan organisation is close friends with the Turnbull.  They ARE the elephant in the room.

3:

The stickiness of the numbers over the past two months are a tribute to the lack of political intelligence in our Nation.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

4 responses to “Poll Sum; 16th December, 2015

  1. I’m hoping there’s a paying-attention factor here. Your average punter is too preoccupied with Christmas, MKR or where their next Macdonalds is coming from to pay much attention to the detail of federal politics. They’re still in the “Oh goodie, Malcolm is in, we’ll be okay now” phase. But when they’re required to pay attention ie. when there’s a by-election, there’s been a huge swing against the government.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Do they take these polls in the LNP electorates or what? Otherwise Australians are the stupidest most gullible people on earth

    Like

  3. I fear it is Australia’s intelligence. It is half empty!

    Like

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