Poll Sum; 9th December, 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

 

poll09h
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poll09a

Two polls, GNewspoll 23/11, and Essential 24/11 were deleted.

Two polls GNewspoll 7/12 and  Essential 8/12 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

A total of 11,788 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll09bNote:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferredpoll09c redblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

  • poll09d

L-NP 8,073,900 Votes

ALP 6,926,100 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

-7.652% or poll09da1,147,800 voters.

Another slight swing back to the left of around 20,000 votes but nothing dramatic.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!poll09eMINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.poll09fWhenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll09g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The drift back to the Left appears to have increased this week. The margin reduced by around a third of a percent. Not enough to win an election but certainly enough to indicate that a surprise may be on the cards. The key thing the media would like us to forget is that we vote for parties, not leaders.

2:

This may be the last round of polls for the year.  We shall see.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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