Poll Sum; 2nd December, 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

poll02h

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poll02a

Three polls, Morgan 16/11, Ipsos 17/11 and Essential 17/11 were deleted.

Three polls Ipsos 29/11, Morgan 30/11 and Essential 1/12 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

A total of 11,759 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll02bNote:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferredpoll02c redblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

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L-NP 8,096,400 Votes

ALP 6,903,600 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

-7.952% or

poll02da1,192,800 voters.

Another slight swing back to the left of around 20,000 votes but nothing dramatic.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

poll02fWhenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

Poll25g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

For the past four weeks there has been a small but measurable drift back to the left.

This is despite the huge lead Ipsos and Morgan give to the Right.

Essential continues to show practically no shift at all.

Perhaps the electorate is showing its relief at the loss of abbott but is still not certain that Turnbull is the answer. It could be he is just one mistake away from a swing back to the left.

GO TEAM BROUGH!

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 2nd December, 2015

  1. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    Go Team Brough! Love it Archie!

    Like

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