Poll Sum; 25th November 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

Poll25h

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Poll25aTwo polls, GNewspoll 9/11 and Essential 10/11 were deleted.

Two polls, GNewspoll 23/11 and Essential 24/11 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

A total of 9,642 voters were polled.

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Poll25bNote:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

I have noticed that KAP is now being split out by several polls. If this keeps up I’ll take them out of “Others” and give them their own column which would show between 1.5% and 2%

Two Party Preferred Poll25credblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 8,108,850 Votes

ALP 6,891,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll18dA difference of

-8.118% or

Poll25da1,217,700 voters.

A slight swing back to the left of around 20,000 votes but nothing dramatic.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

Poll25e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

Poll25f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

Poll25g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Despite the right-wing yowling for Shorten’s blood, the Party has maintained its numbers for the past month. Those Shorten numbers are meaningless as we vote Party not Leader. For the MSM to be so strident about his current low numbers means they are terrified he may still get to lead the ALP to victory. The straight line polls of the past month show them the electorate is waiting for a major blunder for Turnbull!

That’s my reading of things.

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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