Two polls, GNewspoll 23/11 and Essential 24/11 were added
(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)
A total of 9,642 voters were polled.
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
I have noticed that KAP is now being split out by several polls. If this keeps up I’ll take them out of “Others” and give them their own column which would show between 1.5% and 2%
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 8,108,850 Votes
ALP 6,891,150 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A slight swing back to the left of around 20,000 votes but nothing dramatic.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
That was back when the Greens were just beginning!
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
Despite the right-wing yowling for Shorten’s blood, the Party has maintained its numbers for the past month. Those Shorten numbers are meaningless as we vote Party not Leader. For the MSM to be so strident about his current low numbers means they are terrified he may still get to lead the ALP to victory. The straight line polls of the past month show them the electorate is waiting for a major blunder for Turnbull!
That’s my reading of things.
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