Poll Sum; 11th Nov, 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

 poll11h

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poll11aA total of 8,263 voters were polled.

Three polls, Ipsos 24/10, GNewspoll 26/10 and Essential 27/10 were deleted.

Two polls, GNewspoll 9/11, and Essential 10/11 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll11bNote:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll11credblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 8,123,850 Votes

ALP 6,676,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll11d

A difference of

-8.318% or

poll11da1,247,700 voters.

Another swing right, this week of some about 1% or around 150,000 voters changing their mind. I have a feeling that, depending on how Morgan polls next wee, that may swing back substantially!

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

poll11f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.poll11g

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

No improvement this week. In fact an apparent worsening of the situation.

We need to look for a long slow recovery because, unless PMMT takes off his mask and is revealed as PMTA in disguise there will be no sudden turn-around.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 11th Nov, 2015

  1. Waiting for Morgan. One wonders whether this is a “who bloody cares at the moment” effect and there will be a turn around when people realise what effect a 50% rise in the GST will have. Will Malcolm go to the polls early in the New Year — we shall see!!

    Like

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