Three polls, Ipsos 18/10, Morgan 19/10 and Essential 20/10 were deleted.
Two polls, Morgan 2/11, and Essential 3/11 were added
(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
This week Essential have not posted all their numbers. Just the 2pp. So I’ve added those in and pretended that everything else is unchanged from last week. As soon a Essential update their page, I will update this chart.
Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 8,050,050 Votes
ALP 6,949,950 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
A further swing right this week of some about 1% or around 150,000 voters changing their mind.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
That was back when the Greens were just beginning!
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
So there we have it. An early election will result in a complete whitewash. Just don’t be fooled by the benefits of changing a leader. There isn’t anyone in the ALP ranks with the charisma to do what Turnbull has done. Still, if it keeps going this way, perhaps we will be talking about Richard Di Natale as the Opposition leader. After all, the Greens vote is currently almost half of the ALP vote.
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