Poll Sum; 4th November 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

Poll04h

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Poll04aA total of 12,026 voters were polled.

Three polls, Ipsos 18/10, Morgan 19/10 and Essential 20/10 were deleted.

Two polls, Morgan 2/11,  and Essential 3/11 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Poll04bThis week Essential have not posted all their numbers. Just the 2pp. So I’ve added those in and pretended that everything else is unchanged from last week. As soon a Essential update their page, I will update this chart.

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred Poll04c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 8,050,050 Votes

ALP 6,949,950 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

 

-7.334% or Poll04da

1,100,100 voters.

A further swing right this week of some about 1% or around 150,000 voters changing their mind.

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

Poll04e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

Poll04f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
Poll04g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

So there we have it. An early election will result in a complete whitewash. Just don’t be fooled by the benefits of changing a leader. There isn’t anyone in the ALP ranks with the charisma to do what Turnbull has done. Still, if it keeps going this way, perhaps we will be talking about Richard Di Natale as the Opposition leader. After all, the Greens vote is currently almost half of the ALP vote.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 4th November 2015

  1. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    This weeks analysis by Archie Archive

    Like

  2. This is not a good result for Labor. Are they paying the price for not differentiating themselves enough from LNP? Greens at 12.04% is not quite enough to help as their vote generally falls when it comes to election day!

    Like

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