Poll Sum; 21st October

pollpic

POLL SUMMARY

poll21h

redblue

header2

poll21a

A total of 9,636 voters were polled.

Two polls, Morgan 5/10 and Essential 6/10 were deleted.

Three polls, Ipsos 18/10, Morgan 19/10 and Essential 20/10 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

redblue

%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll21b

Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll21c

redblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,905,900 Votes

ALP 7,094,100 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll21d

A difference of

poll21da

-5.412% or

811,800 voters.

A swing left this week of some 40,000 voters and a total swing, over the past two weeks since the Turnbull factor peaked, of 338,700 votes.

redblue

PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

poll21e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

poll21f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
poll21g

redblue

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It is interesting that Morgan has the same extreme right numbers as a fortnight ago, Ipsos has swung to the right AND, at the same time, Essential has remained the same for the past three weeks.

“Curiouser and curiouser!” Cried Alice (she was so much surprised, that for the moment she quite forgot how to speak good English)

2:

Three weeks ago, the polls were effectively tied. The following week they swung right by 1.15 million. That was the Turnbull effect.

Since then they have swung back to the left. Last week by 293,400 voters and this week by another 45,300.

That means Turnbull has lost close on a third (OK, 29% + change) of his “honeymoon” swing in a single fortnight!

This is despite the wild celebrations of the MSM at the removal of Abbott. It seems it will take them longer to wake up to the truth than it has taken the electorate.

I declare the honeymoon over!

 

redblue

PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s