Poll Sum; 14th October

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POLL SUMMARY

 

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A total of 8,182 voters were polled.

One poll,  Essential 29/09 was deleted.

Two polls, Newspoll 1210, Essential 13/10 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll14c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,928,550 Votes

ALP 7,071,450 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

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-5.714% or

857,100 voters.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The Morgan Poll from a week ago still has a big effect on this week’s numbers.

Now that the initial rush to the right is over perhaps it is time to look at things a little more reflectively. If we disregard Morgan then the average swing was 3%-4% and is now swinging back.

Somehow Morgan found a 10% swing. If that is replicated next week then something odd is going on. Perhaps we need to ask about personal connections between the new PM and Morgan’s head office.

2:

If we delete Morgan from this week’s numbers we have a 2pp of L-NP 51.028% ALP 48.972% (51-49) which is a remarkably small lead for the Coalition after such an allegedly brilliant change of leadership.

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 14th October

  1. YIKES! A most undesirable outcome!

    Like

  2. Interesting Archie as always.

    Amazing that in the course of a month the Swing against the Government can be a swing to it because of the change of one man. One man who hasn’t changed any of the Policies one little bit. he is even beginning to sound like Abbott in Question time. “We stopped the boats etc”. So a remarkable change. 6% of voters changed their vote. Somehow I don’t think so. I can’t imagine the 400,000 pensioners who had their pensions cut being too happy with the change of leader. Their pensions and associated concessions are still cut. If it is true then the people of Australia are stupid and I just don’t believe that.

    Like

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