Poll Sum; 7th October, 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

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A total of 6,563 voters were polled.

Five polls, Reachtel 16/09, Gnewspoll 18/09, Morgan 21/09, Gnewspoll 21/09, Essential 22/09  were deleted.

Two polls, Morgan 5/10, Essential, 6/10 were added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

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%ages changed to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll07c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 8,075,250 Votes

ALP 6,924,750 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

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-7.67% or

1,150,500 voters.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

This week a single poll, Morgan, has a disproportionate effect on the final numbers. So, the numbers continue to be discouraging.

It is noticeable that the purchasers of polls chose to allow most of last weeks polls to marinate in the minds of the electors for an extra week. By allowing those numbers to stand for a fortnight we, as a mass, all get used to the numbers and are less likely to swing back next time we are asked.

2:

I read somewhere during the past week that our new Prime Minister has a close personal relationship with the owner/manager of the Morgan Poll. I don’t know if this is true and I am not saying there was/is an effect on the polling numbers.

3:

So, is it time to panic?

No. Mainly because panicking never helps anyone. Remember that nothing good comes easily and this is the test we on the left of Australian politics must now face.

How we react to the test will determine whether there is a future for the small person in Australia.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 7th October, 2015

  1. I do believe the polls will shift. Turnbull will not win an Industrial Relations debate election against Labor. When people see he is trying to steal their wages and wants to privatise health and education and he wants them on individual contracts. They will just think he is a pompous rich guy in a suit. People will get a bit sick of his verbose rhetoric also I think. He is very easy to portray as out of touch just as easy as Abbott is. Abbott hasn’t even started the leaks yet (rubs hands together with glee). Parliament is back next week.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. I too, believe the polls will shift. Those of us who really care about protecting the rights of all working people can do our bit by making sure that any of the LNP’s rotten policies are brought to notice at every opportunity here on social media. The very fact that this weekend (during all of the footy hype) Turnbull announced that the penalty rates for weekend & afterhours work should be drastically cut because we are working in a 24 hour 7 day a week business cycle is just the first start. I can speak from experience when I say that penalty rates actually keep businesses working that 24 hour cycle successfully especially in service industries like health.
    As for Turnbull – well I think that the early poll results are just projecting the absolute relief that people felt when they knew that Abbott was no longer the PM. As people have stated Turnbull might appear more pleasant and better suited for PM, but the policies of the LNP still have not changed. They are just being dressed up or spun better.
    I, for one, do not trust Turnbull. He lost his cred with what he has done with the NBN & the climate. For me, he is just a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

    Like

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