A total of 6,563 voters were polled.
Five polls, Reachtel 16/09, Gnewspoll 18/09, Morgan 21/09, Gnewspoll 21/09, Essential 22/09 were deleted.
Two polls, Morgan 5/10, Essential, 6/10 were added
(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)
%ages changed to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 8,075,250 Votes
ALP 6,924,750 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
That was back when the Greens were just beginning!
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
This week a single poll, Morgan, has a disproportionate effect on the final numbers. So, the numbers continue to be discouraging.
It is noticeable that the purchasers of polls chose to allow most of last weeks polls to marinate in the minds of the electors for an extra week. By allowing those numbers to stand for a fortnight we, as a mass, all get used to the numbers and are less likely to swing back next time we are asked.
I read somewhere during the past week that our new Prime Minister has a close personal relationship with the owner/manager of the Morgan Poll. I don’t know if this is true and I am not saying there was/is an effect on the polling numbers.
So, is it time to panic?
No. Mainly because panicking never helps anyone. Remember that nothing good comes easily and this is the test we on the left of Australian politics must now face.
How we react to the test will determine whether there is a future for the small person in Australia.
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