Poll Sum; 30th Sept 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

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A total of 11.738 voters were polled.

Two polls, Morgan 15/09, Essential 15/09 were deleted.

One poll, Essential, 29/09 was added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled. Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll30c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,691,250 Votes

ALP 7,308,750 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

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-2.55% or

382,500 voters.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The honeymoon continues.

Will the Australian Electorate be taken in by the suave new super-salesman?

Will the cuckoo in the nest ever change a policy?

Will the sudden increase in polling success lead to an early election?

Will politics continue to throw up tired cliches and mixed metaphors?

Stay tuned as these and other questions are answered in the next month or two.

(Sorry for the flippancy. I find these numbers discouraging!)

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 30th Sept 2015

  1. No worries. We all lie to pollsters.

    Like

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