Poll Sum; 23rd September, 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

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A total of 12,542 voters were polled.

Three polls, Gnewspoll 7/09, Morgan 7/09, Essential 8/09 were deleted.

Five polls, Reachtel 16/09, Gnewspoll 18/09, Morgan 21/09, Gnewspoll 21/09, Essential, 22/09

A small Morgan Poll published on 16th Sept but taken before the Spill was missed off last week’s numbers. It has been added along with its 826 pollees.

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.   Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll23c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,525,350 Votes

ALP 7,474,650 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

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– 0.338% or

50,700 voters.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
poll23g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

While the political assassination of sitting Prime Ministers has happened before it has not been common. It may be instructive to see what happened after the previous occasion. Rudd vs Gillard. I have borrowed a graph from William Bowe’s site, “PollBludger”.

poll23jAs can be seen the Government vote jumped from around 44% to 50%. Then dropped by almost as much by election time.

It is too soon to provide a similar graph for this upheaval but reading the tealeaves gives an interesting parallel to the start of the trajectory.

L-NP 2pp in Pollsum last week was below 46.6%. This week they are, as near as damn is to swearing, 50-50.

2:

Often it is not just the sums of the polls which is interesting. The trajectory can be even more revealing.

Here is a chart of the L-NP numbers during the week since the mid-afternoon coup.

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Now that trajectory through the week.

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Could this be yet another short “honeymoon” period? Will the sugar hit last for about the same time it does from a can of Coke?

3:

Even more telling is the fact that Essential broke from its two week rolling average to provide numbers for a single week. The week following the spill.

And they show the 2pp at 50-50.

I’m sorry, Malcolm. I don’t think an early poll win is a lay down Misère.

 

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

3 responses to “Poll Sum; 23rd September, 2015

  1. Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!!

    Like

  2. Yes looks as if Malcolm wanted a quick rush to election, once Brough fixed the senate voting system. A couple of problems:
    1. Malcolm said government should run to Sept next year. Is he telling a fib but expecting we will forgive because everyone loves Malcolm?
    2. Robb stuffed up this morning on radio by saying, we are off to election in a couple of months, it was supposed to be secret. And he has undermined Malcolms excuse that he had no other option but to go to an election due to Senate not passing economic reforms.
    3.Brough really stuffed up last night on lateline telling Emma I’m going to fix the Senate voting system its number 1 on my to do list. Now what made that really bad was Malcolm had spent the day phoning all the xbenchers telling them he wanted to start consulting with them.
    To me thats 3 big Lies when Malcolm is trying to sell a Trust message

    Like

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