Poll Sum; 16th Sept, 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

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A total of 7,836 voters were polled.

Two polls, Reachtel 30/08 and Essential 1/09 were deleted.

One poll,  Essential 15/09 was added

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll” as in “Gnomes”)

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll16credblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,984,300 Votes

ALP 8,015,700 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

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6.876% or

1,031,400 voters.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day. Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

OK!  All bets are now off. The latest poll, Essential from today, was taken before LibSpill.

I expected another poll this week but I have a feeling it was taken pre-spill, due to be published post-spill and an editorial decision was made to kill it.

So I have had to search hard to find some tea leaves to read!

2:

Just 4 days to go until we find out just what the voters think in the electorate of Canning.

Recent polls, Ipsos and Gnewspoll and Reachtel all show L-NP52% ALP48%.

Reachtel threw in an hypothetical in  their Canning poll. “What if Turnbull was the PM?” and it showed L-NP 57% ALP 43% which means there could be an early 5% swing to the L-NP which will show up next week as L-NP 51% ALP49%

3:

By next week the first post-spill polls will be published and I am expecting a 5% swing due to the Turnbull effect. The key question will be, “How long will the Turnbull effect last?”

Eventually the electorate will discover that Malcolm has sold his soul for the PMship. Not that we should be surprised. This story from his youth is telling!

Even in the early days, he had the fire of ambition in his breast. In the mid-1970s, Turnbull, then 21, and radio broadcaster David Dale were seeing two women from the same house. This led to a fascinating exchange in the early hours. Both men, with towels around them, found themselves tiptoeing to the bathroom at the same time. Turnbull, whom Dale knew only as “Malcolm the Footballer” because of his solid frame, announced to Dale he wanted to be Prime Minister by the time he was 40. “For which party?” asked Dale. “It doesn’t matter,” responded Malcolm the Footballer. SMH “Raging Turnbull” John Lyons Apr 13th, 1991.

STOP PRESS

New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has received an immediate mandate from Australian electors as Better PM: Malcolm Turnbull 70% cf. 24% Opposition Leader Bill Shorten with 6% of electors indicating either someone else, neither candidate or they couldn’t say according to a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted this afternoon (Tuesday 15th) with 1,204 Australian electors.

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PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY EVENING
TO BE AVAILABLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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