Poll Sum; 9th September 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

 poll09h
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A total of 11,143 voters were polled.

Three polls, Morgan 24/08, GNewspoll 25/08 and Essential 25/08 were deleted

Three polls, GNewspoll 7/08, Morgan 7/08 and Essential 8/09 were added.

(Galaxy/Newspoll is too long so from now on they are “Gnewspoll”)

poll09a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll09bNote:- GNewspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll09c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,004.400 Votes

ALP 7,995,600 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll09d

A difference of

poll09da

6.608% or

991,200 voters.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

poll09e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.  Here is how they are going.

poll09f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
poll09g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

As we all reflect upon the first two years of the abbott disaster, it is interesting to look at how the voters have changed their thinking during that time using PollSum’s numbers..

pollchange

I have deliberately set this chart up so it is easy to follow the slide of votes away from the Right to the Left.

“OTHERS”, of course indicate the fed-up-edness of the electorate.

2:

Just eleven days to go until we find out just what the voters think in the electorate of Canning. Could it be that there will be a spill shortly after that?

All polling seems to indicate pre- election numbers of 51%L-NP and 49%ALP.

At the very least the indications are that there will be a larger than comfortable swing away from the abbott Government and an ALP win is not out of the question..

3:

With the news the Senators Xenophon and Lambie may be joining forces it seems that we could have a proliferation of Personal Promotion Parties; PUP, KAT and XL. If they are polled separately I may combine them in a special line all to themselves. After all, we have no idea what they stand for other than as a way of getting their leaders re-elected.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 9th September 2015

  1. Reblogged this on lmrh5.

    Like

  2. Pingback: Poll Sum; 9th September 2015 | lmrh5

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