Poll Sum; 2nd September

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 POLL SUMMARY

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A total of 11,374 voters were polled.

Two polls, Ipsos 16/08 and Essential 18/08 were deleted

Two polls, Reachtel 30/08 and Essential 1/09 were added.

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll02bNote:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll02c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,035,900 Votes

ALP 7,964,100 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

6.188% or

928,200 voters.

So the Right Coalition is just 50,000 votes closer to what will become the

Left Coalition.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

That was back when the Greens were just beginning!

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll02g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Despite the occasional major jumps one way or another there have been only small changes on a weekly basis. The norm appears to be 53-47 give or take.

2:

This week I’ve done a bit of study of the charts from the PollBludger. In the years up to the 2013 election there was a gap of around 54 (L-NP) to 46 (ALP). If there is to be an early (March 2016) pre-budget election as some Cabinet Ministers are suggesting in private than there needs to be a sudden move right or there will be a Labor Government.

3:

If the election is left till this time next year, there is a bit more time for a swing to happen but there will be another budget, the SECOND election budget. There will be time for all the hidden nasties in the past two budgets to affect the average voter and time for the economy to go pear-shaped in an obvious, undeniable way.

4:

The suggestions of an early election lead me to believe that Murdoch is locked in.

“Don’t panic guys. I’ve got your back. I’ll deliver a 4% swing from the current polls.”

It worked in 2013 but there is a fly in the ointment. Last time the ABC and Fairfax were in lockstep with Murdoch. This may not be the way things will be next time. It looks as though Fairfax is about to dump on abbott and the National Broadcaster may well be even-handed in the way it treats the major parties.

That 4% swing may not be there this time.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 2nd September

  1. Based on the current seat numbers, likely sophomore surge and relative lack of anti-Liberal-National swing in NSW, Labor needs a 2PP of above 51.5% to get to 76 seats in the HOR. A swing to the government in an election campaign is usual (better the devil you know), so in my opinion despite the Abbott atrocities this election is still too close to call.

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