Poll Sum; 26th August

pollpic

POLL SUMMARY

poll26h

redblue

header2

A total of 9,808 voters were polled.

Four Polls, Reachtel 6/08, Newspoll 9/08, Morgan 10/08, Essential 11/08 were deleted

Three polls, Morgan 24/08, Newspoll 25/08 and Essential 25/08 were added.

poll26a

redblue

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll26bNote:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll26credblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,010,850 Votes

ALP 7,989,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll26d

A difference of

6.522% or

978,300 voters.

Although this seems a large movement it simply goes back to where it was a fortnight ago.

A lead of nearly a million voters.

redblue

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll26e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll26f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll26g

 

redblue

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The polls are bouncing more than the stock market. A swing back to the Liberals????

Could it be that the rising of the Parliament also leads to a rise in the Coalition polling?

The Essential poll from today is the strangest one. This poll, the slowest mover of all,  has seen movement from 53/47 to 51/49 in just two weeks!

It is a puzzlement.

2:

The numbers are back roughly where they were a fortnight ago. Perhaps last week was a series of rogue polls.

There will be interest in the Galaxy/Newspoll numbers. They will lead to much nervousness in Prime Ministerial Offices and screams from the RWNJ’s who lose complete control of all bodily functions the moment they see anything which looks like the truth.

redblue

Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 26th August

  1. I’m a Morgan fan as I consider their polling methodology to be the most representative of the Oz population cross section! But whatever way you look at it the trend is very clear! The Lieberals and their Neutered Puppies are very much on the nose! Let’s hope it continues, and worsens, for the next election. Clear mandates for Labor/Greens in both houses might get this country back on track!

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s