A total of 9,808 voters were polled.
Four Polls, Reachtel 6/08, Newspoll 9/08, Morgan 10/08, Essential 11/08 were deleted
Three polls, Morgan 24/08, Newspoll 25/08 and Essential 25/08 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,010,850 Votes
ALP 7,989,150 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
Although this seems a large movement it simply goes back to where it was a fortnight ago.
A lead of nearly a million voters.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The polls are bouncing more than the stock market. A swing back to the Liberals????
Could it be that the rising of the Parliament also leads to a rise in the Coalition polling?
The Essential poll from today is the strangest one. This poll, the slowest mover of all, has seen movement from 53/47 to 51/49 in just two weeks!
It is a puzzlement.
The numbers are back roughly where they were a fortnight ago. Perhaps last week was a series of rogue polls.
There will be interest in the Galaxy/Newspoll numbers. They will lead to much nervousness in Prime Ministerial Offices and screams from the RWNJ’s who lose complete control of all bodily functions the moment they see anything which looks like the truth.