THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
A total of 12,113 voters were polled.
Two Polls, Reachtel 31/07, Essential 4/08 were deleted
Two polls, Ipsos 16/08 and Essential 18/08 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,892,650 Votes
ALP 8,107,350 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
This week sees a shift in numbers back to numbers not seen since March.
A lead of well over a million voters.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
With the Canning byelection to be held on the 19th Sept there is now no room to maneuver. A spill needed to be made at least 12 months before the election. Now, if there is a change, a new leader will have less than that and he will have to have another tricksy budget!
The electioneering has not yet begun in Canning and already the good folk there are looking at a bare 51%-49% margin in a seat which appeared comfortable for the Government.