Poll Sum; 19th August

pollpic

POLL SUMMARY

poll19h

 redblue

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 12,113 voters were polled.

Two Polls, Reachtel 31/07, Essential 4/08 were deleted

Two polls, Ipsos 16/08 and Essential 18/08 were added.

poll19a

redblue

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll19bNote:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll19credblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,892,650 Votes

ALP 8,107,350 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll19d

A difference of

8.098% or

1,214,700 voters.

This week sees a shift in numbers back to numbers not seen since March.

A lead of well over a million voters.

redblue

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll19e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll19f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll19g

redblue

poll19i

redblue

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With the Canning byelection to be held on the 19th Sept there is now no room to maneuver. A spill needed to be made at least 12 months before the election. Now, if there is a change, a new leader will have less than that and he will have to have another tricksy budget!

2:

The electioneering has not yet begun in Canning and already the good folk there are looking at a bare 51%-49% margin in a seat which appeared comfortable for the Government.

redblue

Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 19th August

  1. I think the latest the next poll can be run is Jan2017, cos Abbott delayed the first sitting session. So Libs could leave the move until Dec & still have 12 months for new leader

    Like

  2. True, although the timeline is a little tighter. An election during school holidays would not be good and going into December is said to be bad. So there may be a couple of months after Sept next year but the electorate has, in the past, judged a Government going late, badly. They may have October but going into late November will be a nono unless they are prepar3ed to lose.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s