THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
A total of 13,980 voters were polled.
Two Polls, Morgan 27/07, Essential 28/07 were deleted
Four polls, Reachtel 6/08/07, Newspoll 9/08, Morgan 10/09, Essential 11/08 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,910,050 Votes
ALP 8,089,950 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
This week sees a shift in numbers back to numbers not seen since April.
A lead of well over a million voters.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
THE ABBOTT LOSERS?
I haven’t shown this list for quite a while. No election is cut and dried. Many seats change hands unexpectedly. So the best I can do is show a list of those who may be affected.
I have taken this week’s difference between the major parties (4%) and added 2% to get an idea of those most likely to lose their position.
I feel sorry for Ken Wyatt who is a good member of Parliament but have no sympathy for the wrecker of small business, Brucie Loosey with the Truthy Billson. As for Warren? Well, who cares?
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
Numbers like this will increase the chances of another spill motion above 90%.
And it will have to be soon to allow a new leader to establish HIMself* before May 2016 because this Government has burnt its budget boats and cannot afford to bring down another pre-election budget.
Any spill must be within the next month!
- Hands up all those who think the Libs will elect a female leader.