Poll Sum; 12th August 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 13,980 voters were polled.

Two Polls, Morgan 27/07, Essential 28/07 were deleted

Four polls, Reachtel 6/08/07, Newspoll 9/08, Morgan 10/09, Essential 11/08 were added.

poll12aNOTE! An Ipsos poll may be due tonight or tomorrow. If it appears it will be included in next week’s Poll Sum.

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll12bNote:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll12credblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,910,050 Votes

ALP 8,089,950 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

7.866% or

1,179,900 voters.

This week sees a shift in numbers back to numbers not seen since April.

A lead of well over a million voters.

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll12g

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THE ABBOTT LOSERS?

I haven’t shown this list for quite a while. No election is cut and dried. Many seats change hands unexpectedly. So the best I can do is show a list of those who may be affected.

I have taken this week’s difference between the major parties (4%)  and added 2% to get an idea of those most likely to lose their position.

I feel sorry for Ken Wyatt who is a good member of Parliament but have no sympathy for the wrecker of small business, Brucie Loosey with the Truthy Billson. As for Warren? Well, who cares?

PollLLOSERSA list like this will provide a great start when looking for the origins of unrest within the Coalition.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Numbers like this will increase the chances of another spill motion above 90%.

And it will have to be soon to allow a new leader to establish HIMself* before May 2016 because this Government has burnt its budget boats and cannot afford to bring down another pre-election budget.

Any spill must be within the next month!

  • Hands up all those who think the Libs will elect a female leader.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

4 responses to “Poll Sum; 12th August 2015

  1. See in your Losers list, those now grumpy faces behind Abbott in QT.
    As to a Libspill after Abbotts ploys on Climate target & SSM there is noone who can unite that lot now. Turnbull has no chance, as does any SSM voting Lib. So whats left someone more extreme than Abbott. So on that I reckon Abbott more likely to take them all down in a DD if a spill was on.
    What a depressing year ahead for Aus

    Like

  2. A DD is hardly depressing. On the contrary, over a million voters who were deceived by the mainstream press and the serial liar Abbott will have a chance to correct their mistakes without having to wait for the completion of a full term of government. I would call that a cause for celebration.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. metadata, DD not depressing. The thought of the year ahead with Abbott hanging on to leadership is depessing

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Seeing Michelle Landry on that list, makes for a very happy Thursday.

    Like

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