THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
A total of 10,123 voters were polled.
Two Polls, Galaxy 20/07, Essential 21/07 were deleted
Two polls, Reachtel 31/07/07, Essential 4/08 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,000,800 Votes
ALP 7,999,200 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
This week sees a shift in numbers back to numbers not seen since April.
. A lead of very nearly a million voters.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.
Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The saga of the Speaker and her rorts came to a head on Sunday. After the Reachtel poll but before the smaller two-weeks-combined Essential poll.
So there is not a lot of Speaker-generated change this week. In fact, I have a feeling there may have been a poll or two which were delayed so that the Government could breathe just a little easier.
So most of those 40,000+ voters who swung right to left did so for reasons other than Bronny. Our prime minister should be very very worried. Malcolm will be plotting in his bus seat while Scott will be keeping all his “on-caucus” matters top secret!
The Greens have bounced up over the 13% mark for the first time in this series. That is over one vote in eight and heading towards one vote in seven. At this rate they could reach 20% by the 2020 election. Which would take the ALP down to around 30%. Now there is an interesting thought.
And don’t even look at what the numbers could be in 2023!