Poll Sum; 5th August, 2015






A total of 10,123 voters were polled.

Two Polls, Galaxy 20/07, Essential 21/07 were deleted

Two polls, Reachtel 31/07/07, Essential 4/08 were added.



Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.


Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred poll05c


Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,000,800 Votes

ALP 7,999,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –



A difference of

6.656% or

998,400 voters.

This week sees a shift in numbers back to numbers not seen since April.

. A lead of very nearly a million voters.



One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.



The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.


Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll05g


The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

poll05iThe Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.



For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel




The saga of the Speaker and her rorts came to a head on Sunday. After the Reachtel poll but before the smaller two-weeks-combined Essential poll.

So there is not a lot of Speaker-generated change this week. In fact, I have a feeling there may have been a poll or two which were delayed so that the Government could breathe just a little easier.

So most of those 40,000+ voters who swung right to left did so for reasons other than Bronny. Our prime minister should be very very worried. Malcolm will be plotting in his bus seat while Scott will be keeping all his “on-caucus” matters top secret!


The Greens have bounced up over the 13% mark for the first time in this series. That is over one vote in eight and heading towards one vote in seven. At this rate they could reach 20% by the 2020 election. Which would take the ALP down to around 30%. Now there is an interesting thought.

And don’t even look at what the numbers could be in 2023!


Over to you, the discerning reader.

5 responses to “Poll Sum; 5th August, 2015

  1. I see that in Essential Nat vote is down from 4%to 3% Liverpool plains Shenua coal mine definitely having a bite. No wonder
    Barnaby looked decidedly cranky having to travel to Adelaide to save Pynes job.
    As news ltd journos expected a newspoll this past weekend, can only assume it was ditched to give Abbott time to recover from Speaker fiasco. Will the newspoll be this weekend in lead up to parliament returning? Either way a very fractious party room meeting awaits Abbott on Tuesday

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    The latest poll news from Archie

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Mmm, it is still uncomfortably close. I believe that if we had Anthony Albanese running as Labor Leader the numbers would be sky high for the pro-Labor vote. Unfortunately, we are stuck with Bill Shorten who is a bit too right wing for my taste. The fact that he backed the LNP on the asylum seeker issue is disgraceful and inhumane. Problem is, there are a lot of knuckle dragging, rusted on neoliberal fools out there that believe all the lies and hyperbole in the Daily Terrorgraph. These Murdoch manipulated LNP sycophants REFUSE to be swayed by the LNPs remorseless corruption, Abbott’s stumbling mumbling incoherent faux pas, ongoing lies and relentless broken promises. They seem to be deaf, dumb and blind to Abbott’s ceaseless nepotism and cronyism and are prepared to follow this Pied Piper of Pueril Policies over a cliff of despair and destruction. God help us if we have another four years of this mind numbing fascist … the destruction he has wrought on our environment, our once fine international reputation, his attempted annihilation of our democracy and muzzling of free speech will take DECADES to recover. Abbott is mad, bad and very dangerous and ticks all the boxes as a callous, cold blooded psychopath. We must do everything we can to rid our country of this aberration.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Thank you for your hard work Archie. This is most impressive and, of course, very interesting.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Thanks Shirley and Sue.

    Kathryn, I take your points about tony abbott but feel you are being a little hard on Bill Shorten – under the “Rudd Rules” Shorten is leader till he either resigns or is defeated in an election. So rather than continual denigration of Bill who can only be dumped by an abbott win next year (and how good will that be for Australia?) how about a little bit of loyalty to the leader for the good of the country? I wrote about this back in April



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